Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Multi-sectoral vulnerability and risks
Map 6.5
Largest European trade import flows from outside the EU and global climate change
vulnerability, 2014
0 2 000 4 000 6 000 km
Vulnerability to global climate change and EU imports from outside EU, 2014
Vulnerability score
Import flow (billion EUR)
< 0.25
0.25–0.30
0.30–0.35
0.35–0.40
0.40–0.45
0.45–0.50
0.50–0.55
0.55–0.60
> 0.60
No data
15–25
25–50
50–100
100–250
> 250
Source: EEA, based on data from Chen et al., 2015, and Eurostat, 2016.
exports, causing world market prices to rise sharply
over a period of three months (Hewitson et al., 2014).
In Europe, small, open and highly developed economies
with intense global trade and investments such as the
Netherlands are regarded as particularly susceptible
to these types of cross-border impacts (Stephan and
Schenker, 2012), but large European economies such as
the United Kingdom are also expected to be affected.
One study suggests that indirect external effects of
climate change on UK trade (and also food supply)
could be even larger than domestic risks (PwC, 2013).
A potentially major climate-related impact on global
trade relates to the shrinkage of the Arctic sea ice.
Under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), a nearly
ice‐free Arctic Ocean in September is likely to be a
reality before the middle of the 21st century (IPCC,
2013). Specific studies on the future accessibility of
the Arctic region for shipping suggest that there will
be increasing access throughout the 21st century with
moderately ice-strengthened vessels (Polar class 6)
for both the Northwest Passage and the Northern
Sea Route, with almost complete access in summer
(July–September) by the end of the century under
three out of the four RCP scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP6.0
and RCP8.5) (Smith and Stephenson, 2013; Stephenson
et al., 2013). This would mean a reduction of 5 500 km
and 10 days compared with the traditional 20 000 km
shipping routes from East Asia to Europe. In addition,
the shrinking of sea ice might also provide (better)
access to potentially vast amounts of mineral resources
and potentially undiscovered sources of raw materials
and fossil fuels in the exclusive economic zones of the
countries bordering the Arctic (Hewitson et al., 2014).
These new opportunities for transport and resource
extraction are associated with numerous risks to the
environment in the whole of the Arctic.
Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
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