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Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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Strengthen<strong>in</strong>g the knowledge base<br />

<strong>in</strong>crement <strong>in</strong> the forests available for wood supply<br />

<strong>and</strong> the production of round wood. Global Forest<br />

Resources Assessments are produced every five years<br />

(FAO, <strong>2016</strong>), <strong>and</strong> similar reports are also produced<br />

for <strong>Europe</strong> by UNECE/FAO, with the latest report<br />

be<strong>in</strong>g from 2015 (UNECE <strong>and</strong> FAO, 2015). The JRC ( 147 )<br />

collects <strong>and</strong> assesses data on forest disturbances<br />

(<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g fires), forest ecosystem services, forests<br />

<strong>and</strong> the EU bio-economy, <strong>and</strong> forests <strong>and</strong> climate<br />

<strong>change</strong>. The f<strong>in</strong>al category <strong>in</strong>cludes data on tree species<br />

distributions, tree species habitat suitability, forest<br />

type habitat suitability, <strong>and</strong> habitat suitability under<br />

scenarios of climate <strong>change</strong>.<br />

The EU Common Fisheries Policy ( 148 ) <strong>in</strong>cludes fisheries<br />

management <strong>and</strong> aims to achieve maximum susta<strong>in</strong>able<br />

yields for all stocks by 2015 where possible, <strong>and</strong> at the<br />

latest by 2020, <strong>and</strong> to reduce unwanted catches <strong>and</strong><br />

wasteful practices to the m<strong>in</strong>imum, or to avoid them<br />

altogether, through the gradual <strong>in</strong>troduction of a l<strong>and</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />

obligation. A Data Collection Framework ( 149 ) is <strong>in</strong> place,<br />

managed by the JRC. In addition, Eurostat collects data<br />

on fisheries ( 150 ). These data <strong>in</strong>clude catches, l<strong>and</strong><strong>in</strong>gs<br />

<strong>and</strong> discards, <strong>and</strong> some of the data are potentially<br />

relevant for climate <strong>change</strong> adaptation.<br />

7.3 <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> adaptation<br />

monitor<strong>in</strong>g, report<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> evaluation<br />

The <strong>in</strong>terest <strong>in</strong> monitor<strong>in</strong>g, report<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> evaluation<br />

(MRE) of adaptation policies <strong>and</strong> actions has grown<br />

dur<strong>in</strong>g the past years at the global, EU <strong>and</strong> national<br />

levels. The EEA recently published the report 'National<br />

monitor<strong>in</strong>g, report<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> evaluation of climate <strong>change</strong><br />

adaptation <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>' (EEA, 2015a). This report covers,<br />

among other th<strong>in</strong>gs, the development <strong>and</strong> publication<br />

of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate <strong>change</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />

the grow<strong>in</strong>g number of countries that are develop<strong>in</strong>g<br />

adaptation strategies <strong>and</strong> have begun to implement<br />

adaptation actions. The dem<strong>and</strong> to underst<strong>and</strong> if these<br />

strategies <strong>and</strong> actions work (or not), <strong>in</strong> which contexts<br />

<strong>and</strong> why has <strong>in</strong>creased.<br />

7.3.1 National monitor<strong>in</strong>g, report<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> evaluation<br />

of adaptation<br />

The EEA 2015 report uses the follow<strong>in</strong>g def<strong>in</strong>itions.<br />

Monitor<strong>in</strong>g is def<strong>in</strong>ed as: 'to keep track of progress<br />

made <strong>in</strong> implement<strong>in</strong>g an adaptation <strong>in</strong>tervention<br />

by us<strong>in</strong>g systematic collection of data on specified<br />

<strong>in</strong>dicators <strong>and</strong> review<strong>in</strong>g the measure <strong>in</strong> relation to its<br />

objectives <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong>puts, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g f<strong>in</strong>ancial resources.'<br />

Evaluation refers to 'a systematic <strong>and</strong> objective<br />

assessment of the effectiveness of climate adaptation<br />

plans, policies <strong>and</strong> actions, often framed <strong>in</strong> terms of<br />

the impact of reduc<strong>in</strong>g <strong>vulnerability</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g<br />

resilience'.<br />

MRE at the national level is challeng<strong>in</strong>g ow<strong>in</strong>g to many<br />

factors, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g long time scales, uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty, shift<strong>in</strong>g<br />

basel<strong>in</strong>es <strong>and</strong> contexts, unclear <strong>and</strong> multiple policy<br />

goals <strong>and</strong> objectives, a lack of a causal l<strong>in</strong>k between<br />

policies <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong>dicators, the diversity of key concepts<br />

<strong>and</strong> def<strong>in</strong>itions, a lack of appropriate data, <strong>and</strong><br />

resource constra<strong>in</strong>ts.<br />

Despite these challenges, 14 EEA member countries<br />

have MRE approaches <strong>in</strong> place or are develop<strong>in</strong>g<br />

these. For most of these countries, the ma<strong>in</strong> aim is to<br />

monitor <strong>and</strong> report on the progress achieved <strong>in</strong> the<br />

implementation of actions <strong>and</strong> policies <strong>in</strong>cluded <strong>in</strong><br />

NASs or NAPs. Only a few countries are <strong>in</strong> the stage of<br />

evaluation, <strong>and</strong> one of the ma<strong>in</strong> reasons for this is that<br />

adaptation is still a new policy area <strong>in</strong> most countries.<br />

The follow<strong>in</strong>g types of adaptation <strong>in</strong>dicators are <strong>in</strong><br />

place or are be<strong>in</strong>g developed by countries:<br />

• a process-based approach def<strong>in</strong>es the key stages<br />

<strong>in</strong> a process that could realistically be expected to<br />

contribute to positive adaptation outcomes, without<br />

specify<strong>in</strong>g those outcomes at the outset;<br />

• an output-based approach follows the direct results<br />

of an adaptation policy or action, without assess<strong>in</strong>g<br />

if these results actually lead to better adaptation<br />

outcomes;<br />

• an outcome-based approach seeks to def<strong>in</strong>e an<br />

explicit outcome, or result, of the adaptation<br />

action, <strong>in</strong>dicat<strong>in</strong>g reduced <strong>vulnerability</strong> or <strong>in</strong>creased<br />

adaptive capacity.<br />

The EEA 2015 report shows that, <strong>in</strong> most countries<br />

with MRE approaches <strong>in</strong> place, they are process‐based<br />

approaches. Some countries assess <strong>change</strong>s <strong>in</strong><br />

<strong>vulnerability</strong> or adaptive capacity, <strong>in</strong> either qualitative<br />

or quantitative ways. There is a need for further<br />

development of methodologies that can be used<br />

across countries. The report concludes that a 'mixed<br />

( 147 ) http://forest.jrc.ec.europa.eu.<br />

( 148 ) http://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/cfp/<strong>in</strong>dex_en.htm.<br />

( 149 ) http://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/cfp/fish<strong>in</strong>g_rules/data_collection/<strong>in</strong>dex_en.htm.<br />

( 150 ) http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-expla<strong>in</strong>ed/<strong>in</strong>dex.php/Fishery_statistics.<br />

<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>vulnerability</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> <strong>2016</strong> | An <strong>in</strong>dicator-based report<br />

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