Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
waves, have increased substantially in recent decades
(see Section 3.2.3). The summer of 2003 broke
temperature records in large parts of western Europe;
temperature records were again broken in different
parts of Europe during the summers of 2006, 2007,
2010, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (Barriopedro et al., 2011;
Coumou et al., 2013). The record warm summer
of 2003 was an outstanding example of increased
mortality during periods of extreme temperatures, with
an estimated premature mortality of 70 000 people
in Europe (Robine et al., 2008). The heat waves of the
summer of 2015 caused more than 3 000 deaths in
France alone (CRED, 2016).
The largest effect of heat has been observed among
the elderly, but in some cities younger adults have
also been affected (D'Ippoliti et al., 2010; Baccini
et al., 2011). Elderly people are more vulnerable to
the effects of heat waves, owing, in part, to poorer
physical health and the effects of cognitive impairment
on the perception of heat‐related health risk; this is
the population considered most at risk of heat‐related
mortality (Josseran et al., 2009). In addition to the
elderly, those with chronic diseases and persons of
lower socio‐economic status also have a heightened
risk of heat‐related mortality (Wolf et al., 2015).
Furthermore, health risks during heat extremes are
greater in people who are physically very active. This
has importance for outdoor recreational activities,
and it is especially relevant for the impacts of climate
change on occupational health (e.g. for manual
labourers) (Lucas et al., 2014).
The above‐mentioned multi‐country global
observational study found that (moderate) cold
was responsible for a higher proportion of deaths
than (moderate) heat. The study collected data for
daily mortality, temperature and other confounding
variables from Italy (11 cities, 1987–2010), Spain
(51 cities, 1990–2010), Sweden (one county, 1990–2002),
the United Kingdom (10 regions, 1993–2006) and other
areas outside Europe (Gasparrini et al., 2015). The results
should be interpreted with caution when applied to
other regions that were not included in the database.
Figure 5.6 shows the overall cumulative exposure–
response curves for four European cities with the
corresponding minimum mortality temperature and
the cut‐offs used to define extreme temperatures. Risk
increases slowly and linearly for cold temperatures
below the minimum mortality temperature, although
some locations (e.g. London and Madrid) showed a
higher increase for extreme cold than others. Risk
generally escalated quickly and non-linearly at high
temperatures. Deaths attributable to extreme heat are
roughly as frequent as those attributable to moderate
heat, while those attributable to extreme cold are
negligible compared with those caused by moderate
cold (Gasparrini et al., 2015). Other studies have
estimated that 1.6–2.0 % of total mortality in the warm
season is attributable to heat; about 40 % of these
deaths occur on isolated hot days in periods that would
not be classified as heat waves (Baccini et al., 2011;
Basagaña et al., 2011).
Comparison of these estimates should be made with
caution, as not only the methods used to estimate the
excess deaths, but also the exposures were different.
The impact of high temperatures later in the summer
is sometimes diminished after an early heat wave. In
Europe, heat waves occurring in June result in relatively
high mortality compared with those occurring later in
the summer (WMO and WHO, 2015).
Synergistic effects between high temperature and air
pollution (PM 10 and ozone) have been observed to have
led to an increase in hospital admissions as a result of
cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Furthermore,
long warm and dry periods, in combination with other
factors, can lead to forest fires, which can also have
severe health impacts (Analitis et al., 2012, 2014;
Aström et al., 2013).
Projections
It is virtually certain that heat extremes will continue
to become more frequent over most land areas in the
future (see Section 3.2.3). The number of monthly heat
records globally is projected to be more than 12 times
as high under a medium global warming scenario by
the 2040s as in a climate with no long-term warming
(Coumou et al., 2013). The projected return period
of extreme heat events, such as those experienced
in 2003 in western Europe, will significantly shorten.
This increase in heat extremes will lead to a marked
increase in heat-attributable deaths under future
warming, unless adaptation measures are taken. Highly
urbanised areas are projected to be at an increased
risk of heat stress compared with surrounding areas.
Projections of future heat effects on human health
need to consider that the European population is
projected to age (see Section 6.1), because elderly
populations are especially vulnerable (Lung et al., 2013;
Watts et al., 2015).
Several studies have estimated future heat-related
mortality in Europe using similar methods and have
arrived at largely comparable results, namely PESETA,
ClimateCost and PESETA II (Ciscar et al., 2011; Kovats
et al., 2011; Watkiss and Hunt, 2012; Paci, 2014).
The PESETA study estimates that, without adaptation
and physiological acclimatisation, heat-related mortality
in Europe would increase by between 60 000 and
208 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report