Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Multi-sectoral vulnerability and risks
Table 6.4
Overview of cost estimates of projected climate change in Europe
Thematic area
(and section in
this report)
Coastal zones
(see also
Section 4.2)
River flooding
(see also
Section 4.3)
Agriculture
(see also
Section 5.3)
Energy
(see also
Section 5.4)
Transport
(see also
Section 5.5)
Tourism
(see also
Section 5.6)
Pan-European estimates
Recent estimates of costs to coastal zones are EUR 6 to 19 billion per year for RCP2.6, EUR 7 to 27 billion
per year for RCP4.5 and EUR 15 to 65 billion per year for RCP8.5 in the 2060s in the EU (no adaptation,
combined climate and socio-economic change (SSP2), current prices, no discounting, with the range
reflecting the uncertainty around sea level rise), based on the DIVA model ( 119 ) in IMPACT2C (Brown et al.,
2015). These costs rise rapidly in later years, ranging from EUR 18 to 111 billion per year for RCP2.6,
EUR 40 to 249 billion per year for RCP4.5 and EUR 153 to 631 billion per year for RCP8.5 in the 2080s
(Brown et al., 2015). This indicates a disproportionate increase in costs for greater warming scenarios in
the second half of the century. There are major differences between Member States, with the greatest
coastal zone costs projected to occur in France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands if no additional
adaptation occurs
The expected annual damage is estimated to rise from approximately EUR 4–5 billion/year (currently) to
EUR 32 billion/year in the EU by the middle of the century (RCP4.5 for 2 °C of warming) without additional
adaptation (median ensemble results, combined effects of socio-economic and climate change, current
values, undiscounted), based on the LISFLOOD model ( 120 ) from IMPACT2C (Roudier et al., 2016). The
large range of this estimate is a result of the high levels of climate model uncertainty. Note that around
half of the increase reported is attributable to climate change. Analysis at the country level reports high
climate-related costs in France, Germany, Italy, Romania, and the United Kingdom and damage costs rise
significantly in the subsequent years. While there are Europe-wide assessments of stream-flow drought,
soil moisture drought and water scarcity (IMPACT2C project, 2015), these have not been monetised
The recent Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AGMIP) indicates that climate
change could lead to a 20 % (mean) food price rise by 2050 globally, with a large range from 0 to 60 %
(common reference climate and socio-economic scenario) (Nelson et al., 2014). Yield losses and price
impacts rise more sharply in later years under greater warming scenarios. These results cover only
a limited number of crops and impacts, and exclude horticulture, livestock and impacts on the wider
multi-functionality of agriculture. Values vary widely with scenarios and assumptions (on impacts and
autonomous farm adaptation and trade)
Climate change will have negative and positive effects on future energy demand, increasing summer
cooling but reducing winter heating (an autonomous response). Additional cooling costs have been
estimated at around EUR 30 billion/year in the EU-27 by 2050, rising to EUR 109 billion/year by 2100
(A1B, climate change signal only, current values, undiscounted), based on the ClimateCost study using
the POLES model (Mima et al., 2011; Mima and Criqui, 2015). However, a similar level of economic benefit
was projected as a result of the reduction in winter heating demand owing to warmer temperatures,
although with the benefits arising in different countries. Under the E1 scenario, the total costs of
the cooling demand due to climate change (alone) were much lower, estimated at approximately
EUR 20 billion/year over the period 2050–2100). Climate change will also have effects on energy supply,
notably on hydroelectric generation, but also potentially on thermal power (nuclear, fossil) plants and
some renewables; these involve additional costs (Mima et al., 2011), although these are low relative to the
changes in demand outlined above
The PESETA II study (Ciscar et al., 2014) considered impacts on the road and rail networks, estimating
the total damages to transport infrastructure due to extreme precipitation to be EUR 930 million/year by
the end of the century under an A1B scenario (a ~ 50 % increase from the current baseline damages of
EUR 629 million/year) and EUR 770 million/year under a 2 °C warming scenario. More specific estimates
also exist for road transport. The future costs are driven by future socio-economic assumptions, i.e. on
transport patterns and demand. Further information is available from the WEATHER project (Przyluski
et al., 2011) and the EWENT project (Nokkala et al., 2012)
Climate change is projected to make regions less favourable for tourism in the south in summer but
more favourable in the north. Several recent studies have used econometric approaches and economic
modelling approaches to identify the economic impacts of climate change on tourism under different
assumptions for adaptation (Barrios et al., 2013; Ciscar et al., 2014; Rosselló-Nadal, 2014; Perrels et al.,
2015). As an example, the PESETA II study (Ciscar et al., 2014) used an econometric analysis, reporting
estimated costs of EUR 15 billion/year by the end of the century, driven by reductions in southern Europe
and in the southern parts of central Europe, and with particular gains in the northern parts of central
Europe. However, other studies report more positive results, noting that the economic impacts depend
on whether tourists adapt by changing their destination or the timing of their travel. Climate change will
also affect winter tourism, as snow reliability will decrease in the mountainous regions, particularly the
Alps, putting the ski resorts that are at lower altitudes at risk, leading to adaptation costs (artificial snow)
or changes in destination choices or timing (Perrels et al., 2015). Estimates are heavily influenced by
assumptions about changes in global tourism and the underlying global growth in tourism, as well as the
autonomous adaptation response of tourists
( 119 ) Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model (http://www.diva-model.net).
( 120 ) https://www.efas.eu/user-information.html.
284 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report