Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
5.3 Agriculture
Key messages
• An increase in the duration of the thermal growing season has led to the northwards expansion of areas that are suitable
for several crops.
• Changes in crop phenology have been observed, such as the advancement of flowering and harvest dates in cereals.
These changes are expected to continue in many regions, leading to reductions in grain yield.
• Recent heat waves, droughts and floods have greatly reduced the yield of some crops. The projected increase in the
occurrence of such events would be particularly detrimental for crop production in central and southern Europe, where
such events will occur more frequently and add to current stresses. Throughout Europe, the increased frequency of
extreme events is expected to increase the risk of crop losses and impose risks on livestock production.
• Irrigation demand is projected to increase, in particular in southern Europe where there is already considerable
competition between different water users.
• Climate change is projected to improve the suitability of northern Europe for growing crops and to reduce crop
productivity in large parts of southern Europe. Projections based on different climate models agree on the direction of
the change, but with some variation in its magnitude. Furthermore, effects will differ between crop types and livestock
categories, depending on short- and long-term adaptation efforts.
5.3.1 Overview
Relevance
The cultivation of crops, their productivity and their
quality are directly dependent on different climatic
factors. Livestock are another very important part
of European agricultural systems, and livestock are
affected by climate change directly through changes in
temperature and humidity affecting animal performance
and indirectly through effects on feed production
and availability, as well as through livestock disease
prevalence (Olesen and Bindi, 2002; Gauly et al.,
2013). Climate change is already having an impact on
agriculture (Peltonen-Sainio et al., 2010; Olesen et al.,
2011) and it has been found to be one of the factors
contributing to stagnation in wheat yields in parts of
Europe, despite continued progress in crop breeding
(Brisson et al., 2010). Climate change is expected to
continue to affect agriculture in the future (Olesen et al.,
2011), and the effects will vary greatly in space across
Europe (Trnka, Olesen, et al., 2011), but may also change
over time (Trnka, Eitzinger, et al., 2011). It is generally
accepted that the productivity of crops will increase in
northern Europe owing to a lengthened growing season
and an extension of the frost-free period. In southern
Europe, climate change is likely to negatively affect
the productivity of crops and their suitability in certain
regions, primarily as a result of extreme heat events and
an overall expected reduction in precipitation and water
availability (Iglesias et al., 2010). Year-to-year variability
in yields is generally expected to increase throughout
Europe, owing to extreme climatic events and other
factors, including pests and diseases (Ferrise et al., 2011;
Kristensen et al., 2011; Trnka et al., 2014).
There is large variation across the European continent
in climatic conditions, soils, land use, infrastructure,
and political and economic conditions, which greatly
influences the responsiveness to climatic change
(Olesen et al., 2011; Trnka, Olesen, et al., 2011). Intensive
farming systems in western and central Europe generally
have a low sensitivity to climate change, because a
given change in temperature or rainfall has a modest
impact and because farmers have resources to adapt
to these changes by changing their management
approach (Reidsma et al., 2010). However, there may be
considerable differences in adaptive capacity between
cropping systems and farms depending on their
specialisation and other farm characteristics (Reidsma
and Ewert, 2008).
Policy context
With the expanding global population and increasing
wealth, there is growing concern for food security,
both globally and in a European context (Vermeulen
et al., 2012). This concern is enhanced by the many
conflicting demands on scarce land and water resources,
which are also needed for many other human uses,
including biofuels, biodiversity and recreational activities
(Soussana et al., 2012). Climate change is increasingly
seen as a threat to global food security, because
projections of climate change impacts show that rising
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