Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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Climate change impacts on society temperatures have negative effects on crop yield and water availability (Challinor et al., 2014). Agriculture in the EU is, to a great extent, affected by the EU CAP (EU Regulations 1305–1308/2013), which is being shaped by concerns for food security and influenced by the need to reduce the environmental and greenhouse gas burdens from agricultural production systems. However, these influencing factors on farming systems have different time dimensions, where changes in the agricultural policy mostly operate on a short time scale and the need for adaptation in many cases has a longer time horizon. Within the CAP, the need to consider the use of various instruments is considered under the rural development pillar for supporting adaptation, in particular where climate change results in the need for changes in farming systems in land use. The adaptations are highly regionally specific depending on the local context in terms of climate, soils and farming systems, as illustrated in Box 5.1. Selection of indicators The following indicators were chosen to evaluate selected impacts of climate change on agriculture, with the following sections dealing with each of these in turn: • growing season for agricultural crops — this indicator determines the suitability for growing agricultural crops, as determined by temperature; • agrophenology — this indicator traces changes in the timing of the annual cycle of agricultural crops; • water-limited crop yield — this indicator considers potential changes in crop productivity caused by changes in temperature, rainfall and atmospheric CO 2 concentration; • crop water demand — this indicator estimates the water needs for maintaining maximum crop yields, thereby assessing the adaptation needs of agricultural water supply. The concluding section describes impacts on livestock, but not as an indicator, as the indirect effects on livestock through feed production are partly covered by the indicators covering water-limited crop productivity and water requirements for irrigation. In addition, the impacts of climate change on livestock production are exemplified in three case study regions in Europe in Box 5.1. The indicators were chosen based on various criteria, including the availability of relevant data across Europe and the ability to identify the main drivers of agricultural change to inform the design of adaptation policy. The indicators presented here focus on the biophysical effects of changes in temperature and precipitation. Agricultural production and land use are also, to a great extent, driven by changes in technology and socio‐economic conditions, which are not considered here, although the biophysical effects will also be relevant to changing technology and socio‐economic conditions. As well as changes in climatic conditions, crop yield and quality are also affected directly by changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration through impacts on photosynthesis and water use (Box 5.2). Essentially, effects on crop yield in the future will be shaped by the interaction between changes in climate, atmospheric CO 2 and technology. Data quality and data needs The effects of climate change on the growing season and crop phenology can be monitored directly, partly through remote sensing of the growing season and partly through monitoring of specific phenological events such as flowering. There is no common monitoring network for crop phenology in Europe, and therefore data on crop phenology have to be based on various national recordings, often from agronomic experiments (Olesen et al., 2012). Crop yield and crop requirements for irrigation are affected not only by climate change, but also by management and a range of socio-economic factors (see Chapter 6). The effects of climate change on these factors therefore have to be estimated indirectly using agrometeorological indicators and through statistical analyses of the interaction between climatic variables and factors such as crop yield (Caubel et al., 2015). The projections of climate change impacts and adaptation in agriculture rely heavily on modelling, and it needs to be recognised that there is often a chain of uncertainty involved in the projections, which range from emissions scenarios, through climate modelling and downscaling, to assessments of impacts using an impact model (Ewert et al., 2015). The relevant modelling approaches in Europe have been discussed in a recent report of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (Rötter and Höhn, 2015). The extent of all these uncertainties is rarely quantified, even though some studies have assessed uncertainties related to individual components. The crop modelling community has only recently started addressing uncertainties related to modelling impacts of climate change on crop yield and the effect of possible adaptation options (Rötter et al., 2011; Asseng et al., 2013), and so far only a few studies have involved livestock systems. Recently, the effects of extreme climate events have also been included in impact assessments (Trnka et al., 2014; Lesk et al., 2016), but other effects such as those related to biotic hazards (e.g. pests and diseases) still need to be explored (Garrett et al., 2013; Launay et al., 2014). 224 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
Climate change impacts on society Box 5.1 Regional case studies from the MACSUR project The European MACSUR project ( 96 ) has explored the impacts of and adaptations to climate change in three European case study regions in Europe, representing different climatic conditions and farming systems (Map 5.9). The case studies are from the North Savo region in Finland, the Mostviertel region in Austria and the Oristanese region in Sardinia (Italy). These regions represent a north to south climate gradient in Europe, but they do not cover the climatic conditions along the Atlantic. Map 5.9 Farming systems in Europe and location of MACSUR regional pilot studies -30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70° Northern Europe 60° 50° Central Europe 50° Southern Europe 40° 40° 0 500 1000 1500 km 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° Farming systems from SEAMLESS project Arable/cereal and mixed farming Permanent crops and arable/specialised crops Beef and dairy cattle with permanent grassland Advanced regional case studies Other integrated case studies Dairy farms No data Sheep and goats farms Outside coverage Source: MACSUR project, based on the SEAMLESS project ( 97 ). ( 96 ) Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security (http://macsur.eu). ( 97 ) System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling: Linking European Science and Society (http://www.seamless-ip.org). Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report 225
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EEA Report No 1/2017 Climate change
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Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © J
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Contents 3 Changes in the climate s
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Contents 6 Multi-sectoral vulnerabi
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements R
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Acknowledgements Chapter 6: Multi-s
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Executive summary Executive summary
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Executive summary ES.1 Introduction
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Executive summary EU climate policy
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Executive summary dispersal of inva
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Executive summary Human health The
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Executive summary Table ES.1 Key ob
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Executive summary For 34 out of the
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Executive summary precipitation, th
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Executive summary as a result of cl
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Executive summary thereby deliverin
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Introduction 1.1.2 Content and data
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Introduction 1.1.3 Changes compared
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Introduction Table 1.4 Overview of
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Introduction collaboration between
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Introduction The primary characteri
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Introduction Table 1.7 Data coverag
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Introduction 1.3 Uncertainty in obs
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Introduction • attribution of an
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Introduction Article 4.4 of the UNF
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Policy context 2 Policy context 2.1
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Policy context In addition, the 203
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Policy context EU Adaptation Strate
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Policy context Map 2.1 Overview of
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Policy context Baltic Marine Enviro
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Policy context includes recommendat
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Changes in the climate system Figur
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Changes in the climate system asses
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Changes in the climate system Box 3
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Changes in the climate system incre
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Changes in the climate system in Eu
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Changes in the climate system Box 3
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Changes in the climate system Proje
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Changes in the climate system Map 3
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Changes in the climate system 3.2.4
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Changes in the climate system Map 3
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Changes in the climate system 1871-
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Changes in the climate system 3.3 C
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Changes in the climate system the i
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Changes in the climate system Proje
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Climate change impacts on environme
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Strengthening the knowledge base 7
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Strengthening the knowledge base
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8 Abbrev
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8.2 Acro
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References References Executive sum
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References EEA, 2004, Impacts of Eu
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References Adaptation to Climate Ch
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References EEA, 2015a, National mon
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References high-resolution climate
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References Fischer, E. M., Sedláč
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References Geophysical Research Let
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References Barletta, V. R., Sørens
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References Discussions 15(14), 20 0
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References Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T
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References L. R., Delgado Granados,
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References Chust, G., Allen, J. I.,
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References antropogent karbon i de
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References face of climate change',
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References Gerritsen, H., 2005, 'Wh
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References Andersen, K. K. and Chri
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References EEA, 2012b, Towards effi
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References Naturwissenschaften Schw
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References Arneth, A., Harrison, S.
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References northern margin of its d
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References Hegland, S. J., Nielsen,
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References weather', Agricultural a
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References 'The new assessment of s
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References Schweiger, O., Settele,
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References 'Warming experiments und
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References Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A
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References Burkart, K., Canário, P
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References Gertler, M., Durr, M., R
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References the environmental condit
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References Semenza, J. C., Sudre, B
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References Brisson, N., Gate, P., G
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References Lesk, C., Rowhani, P. an
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References Vitali, A., Segnalini, M
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References Rübbelke, D. and Vögel
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References Nemry, F. and Demirel, H
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References Pons, M., López-Moreno,
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References indicators of impacts an
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References Roudier, P., Andersson,
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References Global Environmental Cha
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References Chierici, M. and Fransso
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References the Pyrenees from a set
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References change on olive crop eva
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References Steeneveld, G. J., Koopm
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European Environment Agency Climate
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Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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