Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Changes in the climate system
Figure 3.9
Maximum extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea
Maximum ice extent (km 2 )
450 000
400 000
350 000
300 000
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
Note:
0
1720
1730
1740
Annual
1750
1760
1770
1780
15-year moving average
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
This figure shows the maximum extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea in the winters of 1719/1720–2015/2016 and the 15-year moving
average.
Source: Jouni Vainio, Finnish Meteorological Institute (updated from Seinä and Palosuo, 1996; Seinä et al., 2001).
policies to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions,
and eventually concentrations, are successfully
implemented (Hezel et al., 2014).
Projections of Baltic Sea ice extent under different
emissions scenarios suggest that the maximal
ice cover and ice thickness will continue to shrink
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
significantly over the 21st century. The best estimate
of the decrease in maximum ice extent from a model
ensemble is 6 400 km 2 /decade for a medium emissions
scenario (RCP4.5) and 10 900 km 2 /decade for a high
emissions scenario (RCP8.5); for the latter scenario,
largely ice-free conditions are projected by the end of
the century (Luomaranta et al., 2014).
94 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report