Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
However, such figures need to be interpreted with
caution. Trend patterns in disaster burden, in terms
of number of people affected and economic loss, are
difficult to explain, as several interlinked factors play
a role. These include changes in wealth, changes in
population numbers, changes in intensity or frequency
of extreme weather events, and changes in vulnerability.
Therefore, the direct attribution of changes in disaster
burden to one specific factor, such as climate change,
should be avoided (Visser et al., 2012).
Projections
Extreme weather is projected to increase in frequency
and severity in many areas of the world, including
Europe, and includes heat and heat waves, fires,
droughts, heavy precipitation and floods (IPCC, 2012,
2014b). Long‐term climate extremes such as droughts
are generally expected to increase, while the
direction of change is uncertain for some short‐term
meteorological extremes, such as storms (see
Section 3.2.6). Model projections show increases in
hydrological extremes (i.e. floods) are likely. Such an
increase is more certain for coastal floods owing to the
projected sea level rise (see Section 4.2.2) than for river
floods (see Section 4.3.3).
Estimates of the projected health impacts of coastal
and river floods, temperature and infectious diseases
are reflected in the next sections. They have been
produced by EU research projects and through
research by EU and UN agencies (Feyen and Watkiss,
2011; Kovats et al., 2011; Watkiss and Hunt, 2012; Watts
et al., 2015).
204 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report