Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Changes in the climate system
Map 3.5 Observed trends in warm days across Europe between 1960 and 2015
-30°
-20°
-10°
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Observed trends in warm
days across Europe between
1960 and 2015
Days/decade
0–1
1–2
60°
2–3
3–4
50°
4–5
5–6
6–7
7–8
50°
8–9
9–10
10–11
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Outside coverage
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0 500 1000 1500 km
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Note:
Warm days are defined as being above the 90th percentile of the daily maximum temperature centred on a five-day window for a
reference period. Grid boxes outlined with solid black lines contain at least three stations and thus trends are more robust. High
confidence in the long-term trend (at the 5 % level) is shown by a black dot (which is the case for all grid boxes in this map). The
reference period is 1971–2000.
Source: EEA and UK Met Office, based on HadEX2 (updated from Donat, Alexander, Yang, Durre, Vose, Dunn et al., 2013).
(much stronger than either the 2003 or the 2010 heat
waves) are projected to occur as often as every two
years in the second half of the 21st century (Map 3.6).
The projected frequency of heat waves is greatest
in southern and south-eastern Europe (Russo et al.,
2014). According to a different analysis, at the end of
the 21st century, 90 % of the summers in southern,
central and north-western Europe will be warmer
than any summer in the period 1920–2014 under the
RCP8.5 scenario (Lehner et al., 2016). The most severe
health risks are projected for low-altitude river basins
in southern Europe and for the Mediterranean coasts,
where many densely populated urban centres are
located (Fischer and Schär, 2010).
78 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report