Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Changes in the climate system
Map 3.3 Trends in annual temperature across Europe between 1960 and 2015
-30°
-20°
-10°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
Trends in annual temperature
across Europe between 1960
and 2015
ºC/decade
0–0.05
0.05–0.1
60°
0.1–0.15
0.15–0.2
50°
0.2–0.25
0.25–0.3
0.3–0.35
0.35–0.4
50°
0.4– 0.45
0.45–0.5
> 0.5
40°
No data
Outside coverage
40°
0 500 1000 1500 km
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
Note:
Grid boxes outlined with solid black lines contain at least three stations and so are likely to be more representative of the grid box than
those that are not outlined. Significance (at the 5 % level) of the long-term trend is shown by a black dot (which is the case for almost all
grid boxes in this map).
Source: EEA and UK Met Office, based on the E-OBS dataset (updated from Haylock et al., 2008).
Projections: global temperature
The global average temperature will continue to increase
throughout this century as a result of projected further
increases in greenhouse gas concentrations (see
Sections 1.2 and 3.1). The CMIP5 climate projections
summarised in the IPCC AR5 project that global
temperature will increase by mid-century (2046–2065
relative to 1986–2005) by 0.4–1.6 °C for RCP2.6, 0.9–2.0 °C
for RCP4.5, 0.8–1.8 °C for RCP6.0 and 1.4–2.6 °C for
RCP8.5; the warming projections for the end of the
century (2081–2100) are 0.3–1.7 °C for RCP2.6, 1.1–2.6 °C
for RCP4.5, 1.4–3.1 °C for RCP6.0 and 2.6–4.8 °C for
RCP8.5. All projections show greater warming over land
than over the oceans. Projected warming is strongest
in the Arctic at about twice the global average. These
patterns are consistent with the observations during the
latter part of the 20th century (Collins et al., 2013).
The UNFCCC target of limiting global average warming
to less than 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels is
projected to be exceeded between 2042 and 2050 by
the three highest of the four RCP scenarios (Vautard
et al., 2014). The lowest, RCP2.6, implies a strong
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions over this
century and negligible or even negative emissions at
the end of the century (Moss et al., 2010).
Several studies have projected climate change
beyond 2100 based on the so-called extended
concentration pathways (ECPs; see Section 1.2. The
central estimates (i.e. average across models) for
global mean temperature increase by 2200, relative
to pre‐industrial levels, are between 1.3 °C for ECP2.6
and 7.1 °C for ECP8.5 (Meinshausen et al., 2011;
Collins et al., 2013).
Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
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