Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on environmental systems
2100 from the above-mentioned expert assessment
are broadly comparable (Horton et al., 2014; Kopp
et al., 2014). A more recent study suggests that melting
of the Antarctic ice sheet alone could lead to sea level
rise of more than 15 m by 2500 under a high emissions
scenario (DeConto and Pollard, 2016).
On a multi-millennial time scale, projections based on
process-based models suggest a quasi-linear GMSL rise
of 1–3 m per degree of global warming for sustained
warming over a period of 2 000 years. Significantly
higher estimates for GMSL rise on multi‐millennial
time scales, of up to 50 m over 10 000 years for a
high emissions scenario, have been derived from
the geological record (Church et al., 2013; Foster and
Rohling, 2013; Levermann et al., 2013; Clark et al., 2016;
DeConto and Pollard, 2016; Hansen et al., 2016).
Projections: mean sea level along the European coastline
Regional and local sea levels differ from the
global mean owing to large-scale factors such as
non‐uniform changes in ocean density and changes
in ocean circulation. Furthermore, disintegrating
land-ice affects sea level differentially because of
gravitational effects and the viscoelastic response
of the lithosphere (Konrad et al., 2013). Sea level
is also affected by changes in atmospheric loading
(the 'inverse barometer' effect) and vertical land
movement. While there remains considerable
uncertainty in the spatial patterns of future sea
level rise, around 70 % of the world's coastlines are
expected to experience a local mean sea level change
within ± 20 % of the projected GMSL change (Church
et al., 2013).
Relative sea level change along most of the European
coastline is projected to be reasonably similar to the
global average. The main exceptions are the northern
Baltic Sea and the northern Atlantic coast, which are
experiencing considerable land rise as a consequence
of post-glacial rebound. As a result, sea level relative
to land in these regions is rising slower than elsewhere
or may even decrease (Map 4.5) (Church et al., 2013;
Map 4.5
Projected change in relative sea level in Europe
-30°
-20°
-10°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
Projected change in relative
sea level in Europe
Metres
> 0.4
0.3 to 0.4
0.2 to 0.3
60°
0.1 to 0.2
0 to 0.1
– 0.1 to 0
50°
– 0.2 to – 0.1
– 0.3 to – 0.2
– 0.4 to – 0.3
50°
< – 0.4
40°
40°
0 500 1000 1500 km
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
Note:
Source:
This map shows projected change in relative sea level in the period 2081–2100 compared with 1986–2005 for the medium-to-low
emissions scenario RCP4.5 based on an ensemble of CMIP5 climate models. Projections consider gravitational fingerprinting and land
movement due to glacial isostatic adjustment, but not land subsidence as a result of human activities. No projections are available for
the Black Sea.
Adapted from IPCC, 2013 (Figure TS.23 (b)). Data were supplied by Mark Carson (ZMAW, Germany).
130 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report