Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
5.6 Tourism
Key messages
• Climatic suitability for general tourism activities is currently best in southern Europe. The most favourable regions for
general tourism are projected to shift northwards as a result of climate change. The touristic attractiveness in northern
and central Europe is projected to increase in most seasons. The suitability of southern Europe for tourism will decline
markedly during the key summer months but improve in other seasons.
• The widespread reductions in snow cover projected over the 21st century will negatively affect the winter sports industry
in many regions. Regions close to the low elevation limit for winter sport will be the most sensitive to the projected
warming. Winter sport locations on southern slopes of the Alps are, on average, more vulnerable than those on the
northern slopes.
• The projected climatic changes are expected to shift the major flows of tourism in Europe and can have substantial
consequences for regions where tourism is an important economic sector. The magnitude of the economic impacts is
strongly determined by non-climatic factors, such as the ability of tourists to adjust the timing of their holidays.
5.6.1 Overview
The Mediterranean region is the world's most popular
holiday destination. Its European shores attract some
120 million visitors from northern Europe each year,
the largest international flow of tourists on the globe
(Amelung and Moreno, 2009). Spain, France and Italy
are the top three EU destinations for outbound trips
made by EU residents in terms of nights spent, with,
respectively, 20.5 %, 13 % and 12 % of outbound trips in
2013 (Eurostat, 2015b). The European tourism industry
accounts for approximately 5 % of the total workforce
in Europe and generates more than 5 % of EU GDP,
and this figure has been steadily rising (ECORYS,
2009). International tourism is estimated to contribute
about 10 % to both GDP and employment in countries
around the Mediterranean Sea. In popular tourist
regions in France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain, the
proportion that tourism is contributing to both GDP
and employment is far above these values (Magnan
et al., 2012).
In Europe, tourism shows a strong seasonality, with the
main peak in the summer season (June–September)
and generally low levels of activity in the rest of the
winter season (October–March), except for a short peak
around Christmas, and somewhat higher levels in the
spring season (April–May) (Eurostat, 2015a). Climate
is an important resource for many types of summer
and winter tourism, and it is a key factor in the place of
origin of tourists and their destination. There are large
regional differences within Europe and among seasons
in the attractiveness of tourism (Eurostat, 2015c). At
present, the predominant tourist flows in summer are
from north to south, in particular to the coastal zone.
For economy of space, this section focuses on 'summer
and beach tourism' on the one hand and 'winter
and mountain tourism' on the other hand. The latter
comprises tourism related to winter sport activity,
but also tourism taking place in the same locations as
winter sport activities, but irrespective of the season,
such as summer mountain tourism. The distinction
between the various kinds of tourism that are
potentially affected by climate change could of course
be richer and more nuanced depending, among other
things, on location and season.
Climate change mitigation could also affect the tourist
sector through increases in fuel costs, which would
influence destination choices, travel modes, length of
stay, etc. (Gössling et al., 2010). These considerations
are not explored further here, given the thematic focus
of this report. Furthermore, adaptation options are not
extensively discussed here, but a recent assessment
at the European level is available from the ToPDAd
project ( 112 ) (ToPDAd, 2015). None of the information in
this section is presented as an EEA indicator.
( 112 ) http://www.topdad.eu.
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