Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
5.4.4 Electricity production
The relevance of climate change impacts on electricity
generation, particularly through changes in water
availability, have been highlighted in a number
of studies. Climate change impacts on electricity
production will vary depending on the role of different
sources in the energy mix and the geographical
location. Therefore, there will be a marked difference
between southern and northern Europe, with varying
impacts depending on the generation technology.
Increases are projected for most of Scandinavia and
decreases for the rest of Europe (Rübbelke and Vögele,
2012; Hamududu and Killingtveit, 2012; van Vliet et al.,
2012, 2013; van Vliet, Wiberg, et al., 2016; van Vliet, van
Beek, et al., 2016).
A systematic literature review revealed some robust
patterns of climate change impacts on electricity
generation. The study points to robust negative
impacts on thermal electricity generation throughout
the 21st century. Impacts on renewable electricity
generation show strong regional variation (Map 5.18)
(Bonjean Stanton et al., 2016). Hydropower production
may experience significant risks in Alpine countries,
whereas conditions in Scandinavia are expected to
improve (Lehner et al., 2005; SGHL and CHy, 2011;
Rübbelke and Vögele, 2012). Climate change impacts
on wind generation in the EU are expected to be
limited throughout the 21st century, with a tendency
towards a decrease in the wind power potential over
Mediterranean areas and an increase over northern
Europe (Tobin et al., 2015, 2016). Regional studies on
solar power generation point to very limited or neutral
effects (Pašičko et al., 2012; Wachsmuth et al., 2013;
Panagea et al., 2014).
Fossil-powered and nuclear electricity generators
are sensitive to a reduced availability and increased
temperature of cooling water, and to increased air
temperature, which reduces their efficiency. Nuclear
plants are particularly susceptible, and France is the
country facing the highest risk in this regard (Linnerud
et al., 2011; Rübbelke and Vögele, 2012). The ToPDAd
Map 5.18
Projected impacts of climate change on electricity production from different sources in four
European regions
0
300 km
Legend
Northern Europe
Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Hydroelectricity
Wind electricity
Thermal electricity
Solar electricity
Increased generation
Decreased generation
Source: Adapted from Bonjean Stanton et al., 2016.
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