Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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Changes in the climate system 1871–2008 suggests an increasing trend in storminess across western, central and northern Europe, with storminess in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea region reaching its highest values towards the end of the 20th century (Donat, Renggli et al., 2011). Other studies have produced evidence that both conflicts and agrees with this result (Wang et al., 2011, 2014; Brönnimann et al., 2012; Krueger et al., 2013). Projections The simulation of extra-tropical cyclones in climate models remains a scientific challenge in spite of recent significant progress in modelling techniques. Earlier model studies showed shifts both polewards (Gastineau and Soden, 2009) and towards the equator (McDonald, 2011; Scaife et al., 2011) in the Atlantic storm track. The latter could double the predicted increase in winter rainfall over western and central Europe compared with other climate projections. Recent simulations based on CMIP5 data project an extension eastwards of the North Atlantic storm track towards central Europe and the British Isles (Zappa et al., 2013). Modelling studies show diverging results on changes in the number of storms across Europe, but they generally agree on increases in the strongest, most damaging storms in most European regions. A study using a multi-model ensemble projects a small increase in the wind speed of the strongest winter storms over northern parts of central and western Europe, and a decrease in southern Europe (Map 3.11) (Donat, Leckebusch et al., 2011). The associated change in mean potential economic loss varied between – 7 % in the Iberian Peninsula and + 25 % in Germany. A comprehensive review study covering the North Atlantic and northern, north-western and central Europe shows large agreement that the intensity of winter storms will increase in all these regions over the 21st century (Feser et al., 2014). Another recent study focusing on central Europe concluded that models consistently projected an increased frequency and intensity of severe storms over central Europe. Under SRES A1B conditions, increases in frequency towards the end of the 21st century range between − 11 % and + 44 %, with an ensemble average of 21 % (Pardowitz, 2015). The intensity of storms affecting central Europe once a year was found to increase by about + 30 %, with individual models projecting changes between − 28 % and up to + 96 %. These results are largely consistent with those of a recent study based on the GCM projections underlying the IPCC AR5 (Zappa et al., 2013). One recent study with a single, very high-resolution (~ 25 km) GCM indicates that the frequency and intensity in Europe of severe autumn storms originating in the tropical Atlantic will increase in a warmer future climate as will the area affected (Baatsen et al., 2015). However, this result cannot be considered robust, as it has not yet been confirmed by other studies. In summary, the risk of severe winter storms, and possibly of severe autumn storms, is projected to increase in many regions in Europe, in particular for the North Atlantic and northern, north-western and central Europe. 86 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
Changes in the climate system Map 3.11 Projected changes in extreme wind speed based on GCM and RCM ensembles GCM ensemble RCM ensemble Projected changes in extreme wind speed based on GCM (left) and RCM (right) ensembles Magnitude of change (m/s) Statistical significance above 0.95 – 1.0 – 0.75 – 0.5 – 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.75 1.0 0 500 1 000 1 500 km Note: Source: This map shows the ensemble mean of changes in extreme wind speed (defined as the 98th percentile of daily maximum wind speed) for A1B (2071–2100) relative to 1961–2000. Left: based on nine GCMs. Right: based on 11 RCMs. Coloured areas indicate the magnitude of change (unit: m/s) and statistical significance at the 5 % level is shown by black dots. Adapted from Donat, Leckebusch et al., 2011. Reproduced with permission. Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report 87
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EEA Report No 1/2017 Climate change
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Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © J
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Contents 3 Changes in the climate s
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Contents 6 Multi-sectoral vulnerabi
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements R
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Acknowledgements Chapter 6: Multi-s
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Executive summary Executive summary
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Executive summary ES.1 Introduction
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Executive summary EU climate policy
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Executive summary dispersal of inva
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Executive summary Human health The
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Executive summary Table ES.1 Key ob
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Executive summary For 34 out of the
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Executive summary precipitation, th
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Executive summary as a result of cl
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Executive summary thereby deliverin
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Introduction 1.1.2 Content and data
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Introduction 1.1.3 Changes compared
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Page 52 and 53: Policy context 2 Policy context 2.1
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Strengthening the knowledge base 7
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8 Abbrev
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8.2 Acro
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References References Executive sum
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References EEA, 2004, Impacts of Eu
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References Adaptation to Climate Ch
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References EEA, 2015a, National mon
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References high-resolution climate
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References Fischer, E. M., Sedláč
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References Geophysical Research Let
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References Barletta, V. R., Sørens
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References Discussions 15(14), 20 0
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References Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T
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References L. R., Delgado Granados,
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References Chust, G., Allen, J. I.,
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References antropogent karbon i de
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References face of climate change',
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References Gerritsen, H., 2005, 'Wh
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References Andersen, K. K. and Chri
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References EEA, 2012b, Towards effi
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References Naturwissenschaften Schw
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References Arneth, A., Harrison, S.
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References northern margin of its d
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References Hegland, S. J., Nielsen,
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References weather', Agricultural a
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References 'The new assessment of s
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References Schweiger, O., Settele,
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References 'Warming experiments und
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References Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A
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References Burkart, K., Canário, P
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References Gertler, M., Durr, M., R
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References the environmental condit
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References Semenza, J. C., Sudre, B
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References Brisson, N., Gate, P., G
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References Lesk, C., Rowhani, P. an
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References indicators of impacts an
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References Global Environmental Cha
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References the Pyrenees from a set
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References change on olive crop eva
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References Steeneveld, G. J., Koopm
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European Environment Agency Climate
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