Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Recommendations

Info

Climate change impacts on environmental systems Map 4.19 Projected changes in habitat suitability for two major forest pests Hylobius abietis A Hylobius abietis B Hylobius abietis C Present climate 2080s A1B MPI 2080s A1B CCCMA Cameraria ohridella D Cameraria ohridella E Cameraria ohridella F Projected changes in habitat suitability for two major forest pests Note: Likelihood value 0 500 1 000 1 500 km Habitat suitability maps of Hylobius abietis (large pine weevil) and Cameraria ohridella (horse-chestnut leaf miner) resulting from the Maxent model. A darker colour represents a higher probability of suitable habitat. (A) and (D) show habitat suitability maps of the present climate. (B) and (E) show projected (2080s) habitat suitability maps according to the Max Planck Institute (MPI) ECHAM5. (C) and (F) show projected (2080s) habitat suitability maps according to the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCMA) Coupled General Circulation Model version 3 (CGCM3). Source: Adapted from Barredo et al., 2015. Present climate 2080s A1B MPI 2080s A1B CCCMA 0–0.01 0.01–0.05 0.05–0.1 0.1–0.2 0.2–0.3 0.3–0.4 0.4–0.5 0.5–0.6 0.6–0.7 0.7–0.9 Outside coverage 182 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
Climate change impacts on environmental systems 4.5 Ecosystems and their services Key messages • Climate change significantly affects ecosystems, their biodiversity and consequently their capacity to provide services for human well-being; it may have already triggered shifts in ecological regimes from one state to another. • Climate change is increasingly exacerbating the impact of other human stressors, especially in natural and semi-natural ecosystems. • There is still limited knowledge about the combined effects of climate change and other pressures on ecosystems and their capacity to provide services, but the knowledge base is improving. • The relative importance of climate change compared with other pressures depends on the environmental sector (terrestrial, freshwater, marine) and geographical region. Europe's marine and alpine ecosystems are assessed as being most sensitive to climate change. 4.5.1 Ecosystem services under pressure Human well-being depends on the good condition of the planet's environmental systems, which provide vital goods and services such as food, clean water, clean air and physical, intellectual and cultural interaction with nature. These environmental systems are based on numerous regulating and maintaining services requiring clean and productive seas, fertile soils, a supply of good-quality fresh water, pollination of fruits and crops, natural flood protection and/or climate regulation. However, the ecosystems, habitats and species that provide these services are seriously under pressure and are being lost or degraded by human activity (EEA, 2015b, 2016a; Newbold et al., 2015). The capacity of ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services for human well-being depends on the condition of ecosystems, i.e. the quality of their structure and functionality. There is growing understanding of the importance of biodiversity in ecosystem functioning and service delivery, which represents our natural capital (Harrison et al., 2014). Consequently, biodiversity is an important element in ecosystem and ecosystem service assessment, and this activity is implemented as part of the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020. The European assessment of ecosystem conditions for the implementation of the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 considers five major pressures, as identified in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005; EEA, 2016a). As illustrated in Figure 4.19, these pressures are: 1. habitat change, including all structural changes, such as land and sea take, urbanisation, urban sprawl, fragmentation and land abandonment; 2. climate change, including changes in mean climate and extreme events (mainly temperature, precipitation, humidity), as well as atmospheric CO 2 concentration; 3. invasive alien species dispersal; 4. exploitation and management, including landuse intensification, unsustainable agriculture and forestry, natural resource consumption and technological adaptation; 5. pollution and nutrient enrichment, including atmospheric deposition, fertiliser and pesticide use, irrigation, and acidification of soil, freshwater bodies and seas. In addition, the capacity of ecosystems to deliver services and their biodiversity depend on the 'natural conditions' (e.g. current climate) and site conditions (e.g. pH, nutrient content of soil and water, land elevation, bathymetry, slope, etc.), which are considered constant within the time horizon of years to decades. The concept of ecosystem services has recently been applied to suggest priority areas for green infrastructure development in Europe (Liquete et al., 2015). Several EU research projects focus on operationalising ecosystem services and putting the concept into practical use ( 69 ). ( 69 ) OPERAs (http://www.operas-project.eu/) and OpenNESS (http://www.openness-project.eu). Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report 183
Page 1:
EEA Report No 1/2017 Climate change
Page 4 and 5:
Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © J
Page 6 and 7:
Contents 3 Changes in the climate s
Page 8 and 9:
Contents 6 Multi-sectoral vulnerabi
Page 10 and 11:
Acknowledgements Acknowledgements R
Page 12 and 13:
Acknowledgements Chapter 6: Multi-s
Page 14 and 15:
Executive summary Executive summary
Page 16 and 17:
Executive summary ES.1 Introduction
Page 18 and 19:
Executive summary EU climate policy
Page 20 and 21:
Executive summary dispersal of inva
Page 22 and 23:
Executive summary Human health The
Page 24 and 25:
Executive summary Table ES.1 Key ob
Page 26 and 27:
Executive summary For 34 out of the
Page 28 and 29:
Executive summary precipitation, th
Page 30 and 31:
Executive summary as a result of cl
Page 32 and 33:
Executive summary thereby deliverin
Page 34 and 35:
Introduction 1.1.2 Content and data
Page 36 and 37:
Introduction 1.1.3 Changes compared
Page 38 and 39:
Introduction Table 1.4 Overview of
Page 40 and 41:
Introduction collaboration between
Page 42 and 43:
Introduction The primary characteri
Page 44 and 45:
Introduction Table 1.7 Data coverag
Page 46 and 47:
Introduction 1.3 Uncertainty in obs
Page 48 and 49:
Introduction • attribution of an
Page 50 and 51:
Introduction Article 4.4 of the UNF
Page 52 and 53:
Policy context 2 Policy context 2.1
Page 54 and 55:
Policy context In addition, the 203
Page 56 and 57:
Policy context EU Adaptation Strate
Page 58 and 59:
Policy context Map 2.1 Overview of
Page 60 and 61:
Policy context Baltic Marine Enviro
Page 62 and 63:
Policy context includes recommendat
Page 64 and 65:
Changes in the climate system Figur
Page 66 and 67:
Changes in the climate system asses
Page 68 and 69:
Changes in the climate system Box 3
Page 70 and 71:
Changes in the climate system incre
Page 72 and 73:
Changes in the climate system in Eu
Page 74 and 75:
Changes in the climate system Box 3
Page 76 and 77:
Page 78 and 79:
Changes in the climate system Proje
Page 80 and 81:
Changes in the climate system Map 3
Page 82 and 83:
Changes in the climate system 3.2.4
Page 84 and 85:
Page 86 and 87:
Changes in the climate system Map 3
Page 88 and 89:
Changes in the climate system 1871-
Page 90 and 91:
Page 92 and 93:
Changes in the climate system 3.3 C
Page 94 and 95:
Page 96 and 97:
Page 98 and 99:
Page 100 and 101:
Changes in the climate system the i
Page 102 and 103:
Page 104 and 105:
Page 106 and 107:
Changes in the climate system Proje
Page 108 and 109:
Climate change impacts on environme
Page 110 and 111:
Page 112 and 113:
Page 114 and 115:
Page 116 and 117:
Page 118 and 119:
Page 120 and 121:
Page 122 and 123:
Page 124 and 125:
Page 126 and 127:
Page 128 and 129:
Page 130 and 131:
Page 132 and 133:
Page 134 and 135: Climate change impacts on environme
Page 192 and 193: Climate change impacts on society 5
Page 196 and 197: Climate change impacts on society F
Page 198 and 199: Climate change impacts on society a
Page 204 and 205: Climate change impacts on society h
Page 206 and 207: Climate change impacts on society H
Page 208 and 209: Climate change impacts on society M
Page 210 and 211: Climate change impacts on society w
Page 212 and 213: Climate change impacts on society p
Page 214 and 215: Climate change impacts on society b
Page 218 and 219: Climate change impacts on society c
Page 222 and 223: Climate change impacts on society T
Page 224 and 225: Climate change impacts on society o
Page 226 and 227: Climate change impacts on society t
Page 228 and 229: Climate change impacts on society B
Page 234 and 235:
Climate change impacts on society 5
Page 236 and 237:
Climate change impacts on society M
Page 238 and 239:
Page 240 and 241:
Page 242 and 243:
Page 244 and 245:
Climate change impacts on society T
Page 246 and 247:
Page 248 and 249:
Page 250 and 251:
Page 252 and 253:
Page 254 and 255:
Climate change impacts on society p
Page 256 and 257:
Page 258 and 259:
Climate change impacts on society u
Page 260 and 261:
Page 262 and 263:
Page 264 and 265:
Climate change impacts on society r
Page 266 and 267:
Page 268 and 269:
Page 270 and 271:
Multi-sectoral vulnerability and ri
Page 272 and 273:
Page 274 and 275:
Page 276 and 277:
Page 278 and 279:
Page 280 and 281:
Page 282 and 283:
Page 284 and 285:
Page 286 and 287:
Page 288 and 289:
Page 290 and 291:
Page 292 and 293:
Page 294 and 295:
Page 296 and 297:
Page 298 and 299:
Page 300 and 301:
Page 302 and 303:
Page 304 and 305:
Page 306 and 307:
Page 308 and 309:
Page 310 and 311:
Page 312 and 313:
Page 314 and 315:
Strengthening the knowledge base 7
Page 316 and 317:
Strengthening the knowledge base nu
Page 318 and 319:
Strengthening the knowledge base Th
Page 320 and 321:
Strengthening the knowledge base Re
Page 322 and 323:
Strengthening the knowledge base me
Page 324 and 325:
Strengthening the knowledge base Re
Page 326 and 327:
Strengthening the knowledge base
Page 328 and 329:
Abbreviations and acronyms 8 Abbrev
Page 330 and 331:
Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
Page 332 and 333:
Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
Page 334 and 335:
Abbreviations and acronyms 8.2 Acro
Page 336 and 337:
References References Executive sum
Page 338 and 339:
References EEA, 2004, Impacts of Eu
Page 340 and 341:
References Adaptation to Climate Ch
Page 342 and 343:
References EEA, 2015a, National mon
Page 344 and 345:
References high-resolution climate
Page 346 and 347:
References Fischer, E. M., Sedláč
Page 348 and 349:
References Geophysical Research Let
Page 350 and 351:
References Barletta, V. R., Sørens
Page 352 and 353:
References Discussions 15(14), 20 0
Page 354 and 355:
References Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T
Page 356 and 357:
References L. R., Delgado Granados,
Page 358 and 359:
References Chust, G., Allen, J. I.,
Page 360 and 361:
References antropogent karbon i de
Page 362 and 363:
References face of climate change',
Page 364 and 365:
References Gerritsen, H., 2005, 'Wh
Page 366 and 367:
References Andersen, K. K. and Chri
Page 368 and 369:
References EEA, 2012b, Towards effi
Page 370 and 371:
References Naturwissenschaften Schw
Page 372 and 373:
References Arneth, A., Harrison, S.
Page 374 and 375:
References northern margin of its d
Page 376 and 377:
References Hegland, S. J., Nielsen,
Page 378 and 379:
References weather', Agricultural a
Page 380 and 381:
References 'The new assessment of s
Page 382 and 383:
References Schweiger, O., Settele,
Page 384 and 385:
References 'Warming experiments und
Page 386 and 387:
References Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A
Page 388 and 389:
References Burkart, K., Canário, P
Page 390 and 391:
References Gertler, M., Durr, M., R
Page 392 and 393:
References the environmental condit
Page 394 and 395:
References Semenza, J. C., Sudre, B
Page 396 and 397:
References Brisson, N., Gate, P., G
Page 398 and 399:
References Lesk, C., Rowhani, P. an
Page 400 and 401:
References Vitali, A., Segnalini, M
Page 402 and 403:
References Rübbelke, D. and Vögel
Page 404 and 405:
References Nemry, F. and Demirel, H
Page 406 and 407:
References Pons, M., López-Moreno,
Page 408 and 409:
References indicators of impacts an
Page 410 and 411:
References Roudier, P., Andersson,
Page 412 and 413:
References Global Environmental Cha
Page 414 and 415:
References Chierici, M. and Fransso
Page 416 and 417:
References the Pyrenees from a set
Page 418 and 419:
References change on olive crop eva
Page 420 and 421:
References Steeneveld, G. J., Koopm
Page 423 and 424:
European Environment Agency Climate
show all

Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?