Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on environmental systems
relationships, for example through influences on
the activity of predators or on trophic interactions
between species, such as the association between
the timing of budburst (food supply), the emergence
of insect larvae and the egg laying date of birds
(Both et al., 2009). In spite of their critical role in
mediating the impacts of future climate change,
species interactions are still poorly understood with a
lack of modelling. However, with respect to different
phenological shifts, the IPCC is highly confident that
climate change will continue to alter the interactions
between species in Europe (Kovats et al., 2014).
The attribution of observed changes in biodiversity
to climate change is sometimes difficult because
of the importance of other drivers, such as habitat
fragmentation, degradation and loss (Mantyka‐Pringle
et al., 2012), invasive alien species, human
management and land-use change. Nevertheless,
several comprehensive studies have identified
climate change as the main driver for changes in
the phenology and distribution of plant and animal
species in Europe and across the world (Root et al.,
2003; Parmesan, 2006; Amano et al., 2010; Singer and
Parmesan, 2010; Chen et al., 2011; Delzon et al., 2013).
Policy context
The EU Habitats Directive (EC, 1992) calls for the
regular assessment and reporting of the conservation
status of the 1 500 species and the habitats of special
European interest listed in Annexes I, II, IV and V of
the Directive. During the second reporting period,
2007–2012, Member States collected a diverse range of
data and provided expert opinion. The reports contain
information on the conservation status of species
and habitats. They also give an indication of whether
or not climate change is considered as an important
pressure ( 56 ) and threat ( 57 ) to change in conservation
status. The national reports suggest that 14 % of
habitats and 13 % of species of European interest are
already under pressure because of climate change over
their natural European range, including 43 % of dunes
habitats. In the near future, 33 % of habitats and 18 %
of species are projected to be threatened by climate
change (Table 4.1). Bogs, mires and fens are considered
to be the most vulnerable habitat types, with up to 75 %
potentially negatively affected in the near future. This
is particularly worrying because bogs and mires are
important carbon stores and their degradation releases
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Figure 4.15
Selected effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems
Climate change
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Extreme events
• CO 2
concentration
Other stress factors
• Land use intensification
• Unsustainable agriculture
and forestry, urbanisation
• Invasive species
Biotic impacts
• Phenology
• Physiology
• Genetic variation
• Reproduction
Abiotic impacts
• Soil moisture and drought
• Nutrient availability
• Water and soil quality
• Erosion
Impacts on terrestrial ecosystems
• Species distribution and composition
• Species interactions (predator−prey relationships, food webs)
• Ecosystem functioning and services
• Disturbance regimes (fire, storms, pests and diseases)
Note:
Source:
This figure shows selected effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, focusing on the effects and relationships that are covered
in this report.
ETC-CCA.
( 56 ) Reported pressures are considered to be factors acting now or during the six-year reporting period.
( 57 ) Reported threats are factors expected to be acting in the near future (i.e. 12 years into the future).
154 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report