Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on environmental systems
because most sites that are currently important should
remain important in the future (e.g. Johnston et al.,
2013; Virkkala et al., 2014; Gillingham et al., 2015).
The fact that terrestrial ecosystems are affected by
climate change is also recognised in the EU's CAP.
Member States have to establish a comprehensive
farm advisory system offering advice to beneficiaries,
including on the relationship between agricultural
management and climate change. The CAP's
cross‐compliance system related to direct payments
incorporates basic standards comprising climate
change aspects. More attention should perhaps be
paid to how these aspects are being monitored.
One of the priorities under the support for rural
development is promoting resource efficiency and
supporting the shift towards a low-carbon and
climate-resilient economy in agriculture, food and
forestry sectors (with a focus on increasing efficiency
in water use). 'Climate change mitigation and
adaptation and biodiversity' is explicitly mentioned
as a thematic sub-programme. Accordingly, Member
States have to specify agri-environment-climate
measures and forest-environment and climate
commitments that go beyond the basic standards.
These measures often include provisions for soil
(EU, 2013).
Indicator selection
The subsequent sections cover the following indicators:
• soil moisture;
• phenology of plant and animal species;
• distribution shifts of plant and animal species;
• forest composition and distribution;
• forest fires.
Climate change directly influences physiological
processes of animal and plant species, especially
energy and water budgets, and can, in extreme cases,
lead to death by desiccation or freezing. Climate
changes affect ecosystems indirectly through soil
condition and interaction with stressors, some
of which are steered through land use and land
management, equally affecting soil characteristics and
processes. Soil moisture is a key factor for ecosystems,
which is determined by soil characteristics, vegetation
and climatic factors. To adapt to changes in these
aspects, species have several options: (1) adapting
temporally, i.e. changing their life cycle within a
year (their phenology) according to altered climatic
conditions throughout the year; (2) adapting spatially,
i.e. changing their distribution ranges to follow suitable
climatic conditions; and (3) microevolution by adapting
physiologically. Overall, a species' adaptive potential is
the sum of the changes due to genetic adaptation and
changes due to phenotypic plasticity (i.e. the capacity
of an organism to change its phenotype in response
to a change in environment, which is not always
hereditary). Changes in plant and animal phenology
have been shown to be good indicators of climate
change impacts, but other pressures (such as nitrogen
input) may also have an impact on phenology.
Directly or indirectly, climate change can affect
species populations in a number of ways, including
species distribution changes (e.g. due to habitat
loss, or contraction and expansion, relating to their
dispersal ability). Novel non-native species are also
expanding their ranges as a result of climate change.
For example, birds and invertebrates from mainland
Europe are extending their distribution ranges
and are now being found in southern England and
moving north. Forest composition and distribution may
influence mitigation and the provision of ecosystem
services. Furthermore, they have large economic
relevance. Forest disturbances are experienced in
many European countries, in particular forest fires in
southern Europe. Climate change may lead to more
forest fires because of warmer and drier weather, and
possibly increases in lightning storms (a natural cause
of fires).
Information on forest pests and diseases is presented
in the concluding section, but this is not an EEA
indicator. Invasive alien species have been recognised
as one of the most important threats to biodiversity at
the global level. The available information is insufficient
for creating an EEA indicator, but key information on
alien invasive species and climate change is presented
in Box 4.7.
Data quality and gaps
Quantitative information, from both observations and
modelling, on the past trends and impacts of climate
change on soil and the various related feedbacks is
very limited. For example, data have been collected
in forest soil surveys, but issues with survey quality
— at least in the first European forest soil survey —
makes comparison between countries (and between
surveys) difficult (Hiederer and Durrant, 2010). To date,
assessments have relied mainly on local case studies
that have analysed how soil reacts under changing
climate in combination with evolving agricultural and
forest practices. Thus, Europe-wide soil information
to help policymakers identify appropriate adaptation
measures is absent. There is an urgent need to
establish harmonised monitoring networks to provide
a better and more quantitative understanding of this
156 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report