Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Multi-sectoral vulnerability and risks
6.4.6 Human migration
Historical evidence suggests that climate variability is
a contributing factor to migration (Lilleør and Van den
Broeck, 2011). Extreme weather events, such as floods
or extreme drought, are the most direct link between
climate impacts and the displacement of people and
migration, but more gradual changes (e.g. sea level rise)
may also play a key role. In many cases, climate-related
migration occurs within a country (from affected areas to
safer zones) and is temporary. However, past incidences
show that migration can also be international and
permanent, whereby climate impacts at one location are
indirectly transmitted to societies and states that receive
the migrants from that location (Hallegatte, 2012).
A global analysis encompassing all types of displacement
(national, international, short-term and long-term) and
adjusted for population growth suggests that the risk of
being displaced by a weather- or climate-related disaster
has increased by more than 50 % since the 1970s.
Moreover, it is estimated that, since 2008, an annual
average of 22.5 million people have been displaced
globally owing to weather- or climate-related hazards
(IDMC and NRC, 2015).
A rapidly growing body of literature examines migration
patterns in relation to future environmental and
climate change (EC, 2015b). Numerous studies have
concluded that an increasing frequency and magnitude
of extreme weather events as a result of future climate
change will increase human migration, particularly for
high rates of warming (Gemenne, 2011). There is largely
agreement that the most vulnerable regions in terms
of climate-induced emigration include low-lying island
states, coastal and deltaic regions, and large parts of
Asia and Africa, but quantitative projections about the
number of people potentially displaced by region are
not available (Gemenne, 2011; Nicholls and Kebede,
2012; Oppenheimer et al., 2014).
Of particular strategic significance for Europe is North
Africa, for which decreasing precipitation levels and
associated increases in drought risk during the 21st
century are considered very likely (Niang et al., 2014).
Furthermore, sea level rise is expected to increasingly
threaten populous coastal areas such as the Nile Delta,
where a large proportion of the Egyptian population
and agricultural land is concentrated. It has been
suggested that a sea level rise of 1 m could affect more
than six million people in the Nile Delta (Mulligan et al.,
2014). Likewise, the Sahel region has been identified
as a hotspot region of climate change (Diffenbaugh
and Giorgi, 2012). In that region, unprecedented mean
annual temperatures (i.e. temperatures continuously
outside historical bounds) have been projected to occur
as early as the 2030s (Mora et al., 2013), with potentially
significant consequences for local ecosystems and
associated rural livelihoods (UNEP, 2011).
These trends, together with other driving forces, may
cause a further increase in regional instability and
increased migration northwards to Europe (Rodrigues
De Brito, 2012). Likewise, climate change impacts in the
Middle East may play an increasing role in migration
flows to Europe (Kelley et al., 2015). In the face of these
challenges, a global governance system to protect
climate refugees has been proposed (Biermann
and Boas, 2010). Such a regime for the recognition,
protection and resettlement of migrants would build on
principles such as international burden sharing and an
international financing mechanism.
6.4.7 Finance
The financial pathway refers to those climate change
impacts that may lead to disruptions in global
financial markets or that may have repercussions
for financial flows in various countries, such as
overseas investments, remittances or global insurance
(Groundstroem et al., 2015). An example of such
a spill‐over financial effect for Europe is Hurricane
Katrina in 2005, for which a substantial amount of
the insurance costs fell on the London stock markets
(Nicholls and Kebede, 2012).
In particular, extreme weather events may lead to
disruptions in global financial markets and constitute
a significant burden for the insurance industry, as
previously demonstrated by hurricanes along the
south-east coast of the United States (Kron, 2012). The
projected increase in the occurrence and intensity of
extreme weather events in many parts of the world
will challenge insurance systems, and it may trigger
increases in insurance premiums and decreases in
coverage (Arent et al., 2014). On the other hand, climate
change provides opportunities for European insurance
companies to invest in the developing world through,
for example, micro-insurance programmes, climate
index-based insurance products for both private clients
and governments, and multi-country insurance risk
pools (Herweijer et al., 2009).
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