Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Recommendations

Info

Multi-sectoral vulnerability and risks (Ciais et al., 2005; Reichstein et al., 2007; Vennetier et al., 2007; Navarra and Tubiana, 2013a, Chapter 3) and mild winters or windstorms and heavy rains (IPCC, 2014). Ecosystem services are also threatened by long‐term climate‐driven changes such as aridification and degradation, eventually leading to irreversible desertification (Rubio et al., 2009; Santini et al., 2010). Future climate change is also projected to affect typical Mediterranean crops, e.g. grapevine, durum wheat and olive (Ponti et al., 2014; Tanasijevic et al., 2014; Saadi et al., 2015). In particular, the area suitable for olive trees is projected to undergo a northwards and eastwards shift owing to the projected warming and drying (Mereu et al., 2008; Navarra and Tubiana, 2013a, Chapter 4). Agriculture also includes the farming of animals, which will be exposed to increased heat stress during summer (Navarra and Tubiana, 2013a, Chapter 7). Impacts of climate change on the Mediterranean forests (see Section 4.4) are already evident in ecophysiology, productivity, dieback and some shifts in species distributions (Bréda et al., 2006; Vennetier et al., 2007; Allen et al., 2010), and these impacts are projected to further increase as a result of the projected climate change. In particular, the distribution range of typical Mediterranean tree species is likely to decrease in the region, but it could expand to new areas with new Mediterranean‐like climatic conditions (Jump et al., 2006; Ruiz‐Labourdette et al., 2012). Projected climate change for the Mediterranean region is likely to increase fuel dryness and reduce relative humidity, which will thus lead to a higher forest fire risk, longer fire seasons and more frequent large, severe fires, along with more difficult conditions for ecosystem restoration after fire (Navarra and Tubiana, 2013a, Chapter 6). The Mediterranean marine ecosystems, which are already experiencing pressures ranging from eutrophication to dumping of waste and fish farming, are expected to suffer additional pressures owing to increased marine temperatures (see Section 4.1). The Mediterranean is the largest tourism region in the world owing to its unique natural and cultural heritage. Higher air temperatures in northern European countries are expected to reduce the north‐south tourism flow (see Section 5.6). Furthermore, the attractiveness and competitiveness of Mediterranean coastal areas could be reduced for tourists because of increasing air temperatures during summer peak seasons and increasing coastal erosion. Further studies on understanding the regional differences within the Mediterranean touristic areas and the role of the non-climatic factors are needed in this sector (Navarra and Tubiana, 2013a). Higher air temperatures, more frequent and longer heat waves, reduced air quality (mainly PM and ozone), and changes in the distribution patterns of climate-sensitive infectious diseases are expected to lead to an increased risk to human health in Mediterranean countries if adaptation measures are not planned and taken in due time (see Section 5.2). Table 6.6 provides a summary of the stresses, impacts, sensitivities and critical thresholds for the different ecosystem services and the sectors they support (Navarra and Tubiana, 2013a, Chapter 2). 6.5.8 EU overseas entities This section covers the EU overseas entities, which comprise nine EU outermost regions (ORs) and 25 overseas countries and territories (OTCs). Both types of region are characterised by their remoteness, specific climatic conditions, very rich biodiversity, high concentration of population and economic activities along the coastline, and economic dependence on a small number of products and services. The ORs comprise remote regions that belong to an EU Member State and that are an integral part of the EU. There are nine ORs: five French overseas departments (Guadeloupe, French Guiana, Martinique, Réunion and Mayotte), one French overseas collectivity (Saint Martin), two Portuguese autonomous regions (Madeira and the Azores) and one Spanish autonomous community (the Canary Islands). The OTCs comprise 25 regions that are not part of the EU but are constitutionally linked to an EU Member State (in particular to Denmark, France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom). The type of association with the EU varies across OTCs. The OTCs are a particularly diverse group, as they range from small islands in the tropics to huge territories in the Arctic (Greenland) and the Antarctic (the British Antarctic Territory). Several research activities and policy initiatives have covered ORs and OTCs jointly, despite their different legal statuses. A first comprehensive overview of the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity in ORs and OTCs was provided in a report by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) in collaboration with the Observatoire National sur les Effets du Réchauffement Climatique (ONERC; the French national observatory about climate change impacts) (Petit and Prudent, 2010), based on the 2008 IUCN conference 'The European Union and its Overseas Entities: Strategies to Counter Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss'. Further relevant information was provided in an IUCN-led review of the implementation of the convention on biological 302 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
Multi-sectoral vulnerability and risks Table 6.6 Vulnerability of ecosystem services in the Mediterranean Sector Ecosystem services Stress (climate, others) Impacts/ sensitivities Critical thresholds for ecosystem services Agriculture, grazing, agroforestry Food (crop and livestock) production • Higher temperatures • Changing precipitation patterns • Water stress • Disease • Erosion • Urban encroachment • Higher irrigation demand • Reduced productivity • Crop failure • Livestock mortality • Precipitation threshold beyond which rain-fed systems fail • Fallow groundwater level threshold below which pumping fails Agriculture Carbon sequestration • Higher temperatures • Changing precipitation patterns • Water stress • Disease • Erosion • Urban encroachment • Higher irrigation demand • Reduced productivity • Soil organic matter decomposition • Precipitation threshold beyond which rain-fed systems fail • Irrigation water allocations below which permanent cultures die • Fallow groundwater level threshold below which irrigation water pumping fails • Grazing pressure beyond stocking capacity above which productivity sharply declines • Climatic or land-use change threshold beyond which systems turn into carbon sources Agriculture, forestry Biofuels, carbon offset • Higher temperatures • Changing precipitation patterns • Water stress • Disease • Fire • Erosion/overexploitation • Urban encroachment • Reduced productivity • Crop or tree mortality • Precipitation threshold below which biofuels can no longer be produced • Water or land scarcity threshold below which food security is threatened Forestry Timber production • Higher temperatures • Changing precipitation patterns • Water stress • Disease • Fire • Erosion/overexploitation • Reduced productivity • Tree mortality • Temperature or management threshold beyond which many more fires occur Forestry, terrestrial ecosystems Carbon sequestration • Higher temperatures • Changing precipitation patterns • Water stress • Disease • Fire • Erosion • Reduced productivity • Tree mortality • Soil organic matter decomposition • Climatic or land-use change threshold beyond which systems turn into C-sources Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems Water provision/ regulation • Higher temperatures • Changing precipitation patterns • Water stress • Land cover changes • Landscape degradation • Erosion • Reduced water availability • Higher water demand • Water quality degradation • Sediment yield • Precipitation threshold below which groundwater recharge fails • Minimum vegetation cover threshold below which moisture recycling from land surface to atmosphere fails • Minimum vegetation cover threshold below which rapid erosion/siltation starts Source: Adapted from Hoff, 2013. Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report 303
Page 1:
EEA Report No 1/2017 Climate change
Page 4 and 5:
Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © J
Page 6 and 7:
Contents 3 Changes in the climate s
Page 8 and 9:
Contents 6 Multi-sectoral vulnerabi
Page 10 and 11:
Acknowledgements Acknowledgements R
Page 12 and 13:
Acknowledgements Chapter 6: Multi-s
Page 14 and 15:
Executive summary Executive summary
Page 16 and 17:
Executive summary ES.1 Introduction
Page 18 and 19:
Executive summary EU climate policy
Page 20 and 21:
Executive summary dispersal of inva
Page 22 and 23:
Executive summary Human health The
Page 24 and 25:
Executive summary Table ES.1 Key ob
Page 26 and 27:
Executive summary For 34 out of the
Page 28 and 29:
Executive summary precipitation, th
Page 30 and 31:
Executive summary as a result of cl
Page 32 and 33:
Executive summary thereby deliverin
Page 34 and 35:
Introduction 1.1.2 Content and data
Page 36 and 37:
Introduction 1.1.3 Changes compared
Page 38 and 39:
Introduction Table 1.4 Overview of
Page 40 and 41:
Introduction collaboration between
Page 42 and 43:
Introduction The primary characteri
Page 44 and 45:
Introduction Table 1.7 Data coverag
Page 46 and 47:
Introduction 1.3 Uncertainty in obs
Page 48 and 49:
Introduction • attribution of an
Page 50 and 51:
Introduction Article 4.4 of the UNF
Page 52 and 53:
Policy context 2 Policy context 2.1
Page 54 and 55:
Policy context In addition, the 203
Page 56 and 57:
Policy context EU Adaptation Strate
Page 58 and 59:
Policy context Map 2.1 Overview of
Page 60 and 61:
Policy context Baltic Marine Enviro
Page 62 and 63:
Policy context includes recommendat
Page 64 and 65:
Changes in the climate system Figur
Page 66 and 67:
Changes in the climate system asses
Page 68 and 69:
Changes in the climate system Box 3
Page 70 and 71:
Changes in the climate system incre
Page 72 and 73:
Changes in the climate system in Eu
Page 74 and 75:
Changes in the climate system Box 3
Page 76 and 77:
Page 78 and 79:
Changes in the climate system Proje
Page 80 and 81:
Changes in the climate system Map 3
Page 82 and 83:
Changes in the climate system 3.2.4
Page 84 and 85:
Page 86 and 87:
Changes in the climate system Map 3
Page 88 and 89:
Changes in the climate system 1871-
Page 90 and 91:
Page 92 and 93:
Changes in the climate system 3.3 C
Page 94 and 95:
Page 96 and 97:
Page 98 and 99:
Page 100 and 101:
Changes in the climate system the i
Page 102 and 103:
Page 104 and 105:
Page 106 and 107:
Changes in the climate system Proje
Page 108 and 109:
Climate change impacts on environme
Page 110 and 111:
Page 112 and 113:
Page 114 and 115:
Page 116 and 117:
Page 118 and 119:
Page 120 and 121:
Page 122 and 123:
Page 124 and 125:
Page 126 and 127:
Page 128 and 129:
Page 130 and 131:
Page 132 and 133:
Page 134 and 135:
Page 136 and 137:
Page 138 and 139:
Page 140 and 141:
Page 142 and 143:
Page 144 and 145:
Page 146 and 147:
Page 148 and 149:
Page 150 and 151:
Page 152 and 153:
Page 154 and 155:
Page 156 and 157:
Page 158 and 159:
Page 160 and 161:
Page 162 and 163:
Page 164 and 165:
Page 166 and 167:
Page 168 and 169:
Page 170 and 171:
Page 172 and 173:
Page 174 and 175:
Page 176 and 177:
Page 178 and 179:
Page 180 and 181:
Page 182 and 183:
Page 184 and 185:
Page 186 and 187:
Page 188 and 189:
Page 190 and 191:
Page 192 and 193:
Climate change impacts on society 5
Page 194 and 195:
Page 196 and 197:
Climate change impacts on society F
Page 198 and 199:
Climate change impacts on society a
Page 200 and 201:
Page 202 and 203:
Page 204 and 205:
Climate change impacts on society h
Page 206 and 207:
Climate change impacts on society H
Page 208 and 209:
Climate change impacts on society M
Page 210 and 211:
Climate change impacts on society w
Page 212 and 213:
Climate change impacts on society p
Page 214 and 215:
Climate change impacts on society b
Page 216 and 217:
Page 218 and 219:
Climate change impacts on society c
Page 220 and 221:
Page 222 and 223:
Climate change impacts on society T
Page 224 and 225:
Climate change impacts on society o
Page 226 and 227:
Climate change impacts on society t
Page 228 and 229:
Climate change impacts on society B
Page 230 and 231:
Page 232 and 233:
Page 234 and 235:
Page 236 and 237:
Page 238 and 239:
Page 240 and 241:
Page 242 and 243:
Page 244 and 245:
Page 246 and 247:
Page 248 and 249:
Page 250 and 251:
Page 252 and 253:
Page 254 and 255: Climate change impacts on society p
Page 256 and 257: Climate change impacts on society 5
Page 258 and 259: Climate change impacts on society u
Page 260 and 261: Climate change impacts on society T
Page 264 and 265: Climate change impacts on society r
Page 270 and 271: Multi-sectoral vulnerability and ri
Page 314 and 315: Strengthening the knowledge base 7
Page 316 and 317: Strengthening the knowledge base nu
Page 318 and 319: Strengthening the knowledge base Th
Page 320 and 321: Strengthening the knowledge base Re
Page 322 and 323: Strengthening the knowledge base me
Page 324 and 325: Strengthening the knowledge base Re
Page 326 and 327: Strengthening the knowledge base
Page 328 and 329: Abbreviations and acronyms 8 Abbrev
Page 330 and 331: Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
Page 332 and 333: Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
Page 334 and 335: Abbreviations and acronyms 8.2 Acro
Page 336 and 337: References References Executive sum
Page 338 and 339: References EEA, 2004, Impacts of Eu
Page 340 and 341: References Adaptation to Climate Ch
Page 342 and 343: References EEA, 2015a, National mon
Page 344 and 345: References high-resolution climate
Page 346 and 347: References Fischer, E. M., Sedláč
Page 348 and 349: References Geophysical Research Let
Page 350 and 351: References Barletta, V. R., Sørens
Page 352 and 353: References Discussions 15(14), 20 0
Page 354 and 355:
References Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T
Page 356 and 357:
References L. R., Delgado Granados,
Page 358 and 359:
References Chust, G., Allen, J. I.,
Page 360 and 361:
References antropogent karbon i de
Page 362 and 363:
References face of climate change',
Page 364 and 365:
References Gerritsen, H., 2005, 'Wh
Page 366 and 367:
References Andersen, K. K. and Chri
Page 368 and 369:
References EEA, 2012b, Towards effi
Page 370 and 371:
References Naturwissenschaften Schw
Page 372 and 373:
References Arneth, A., Harrison, S.
Page 374 and 375:
References northern margin of its d
Page 376 and 377:
References Hegland, S. J., Nielsen,
Page 378 and 379:
References weather', Agricultural a
Page 380 and 381:
References 'The new assessment of s
Page 382 and 383:
References Schweiger, O., Settele,
Page 384 and 385:
References 'Warming experiments und
Page 386 and 387:
References Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A
Page 388 and 389:
References Burkart, K., Canário, P
Page 390 and 391:
References Gertler, M., Durr, M., R
Page 392 and 393:
References the environmental condit
Page 394 and 395:
References Semenza, J. C., Sudre, B
Page 396 and 397:
References Brisson, N., Gate, P., G
Page 398 and 399:
References Lesk, C., Rowhani, P. an
Page 400 and 401:
References Vitali, A., Segnalini, M
Page 402 and 403:
References Rübbelke, D. and Vögel
Page 404 and 405:
References Nemry, F. and Demirel, H
Page 406 and 407:
References Pons, M., López-Moreno,
Page 408 and 409:
References indicators of impacts an
Page 410 and 411:
References Roudier, P., Andersson,
Page 412 and 413:
References Global Environmental Cha
Page 414 and 415:
References Chierici, M. and Fransso
Page 416 and 417:
References the Pyrenees from a set
Page 418 and 419:
References change on olive crop eva
Page 420 and 421:
References Steeneveld, G. J., Koopm
Page 423 and 424:
European Environment Agency Climate
show all

Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?