Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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Climate change impacts on environmental systems Box 4.7 Alien species and climate change: new establishments and new ranges? It is difficult to predict how global environmental changes such as climate change and biological invasions will affect ecological systems. Because alien species are mostly opportunistic and generalists, they tend to perform better under a rapidly changing climate than native species (Hellmann et al., 2008). There is growing concern that invasive alien species may benefit from climate change and further deterioration in the environment, allowing them to increasingly compete (i.e. increase their establishment and reproduction rates and their niche breadth) with native species to the latter's disadvantage (Walther et al., 2009; EEA, 2010; Kleinbauer et al., 2010a; EC, 2014a). Invasive alien species may affect and reduce native biodiversity in various ways, such as through competition for food and space, predation, disease transfer, and changing habitat structure and functions. They have negative consequences for their new environment and significant adverse impacts on the goods and services provided by ecosystems, on the economy and on human health (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005; Vilà et al., 2010, 2011; Blackburn et al., 2014; Rabitsch et al., 2016). In response to these increasing pressures, the European Union has recently adopted a dedicated legislation on invasive alien species (IAS), which aims to reduce the future impacts of alien species (EU, 2014). According to the DAISIE ( 64 ) project, there are more than 12 000 non-native species in Europe. An estimated 1 200–1 800 of them are invasive, and this figure is predicted to rise with the growth in global trade and travel (EC, 2014a). Some recent trends in alien species introductions to Europe are shown in Figure 4.17. The positive trend in the establishment of new species indicates that the problem is far from under control, with impacts on biodiversity expected to increase because of the growing number of species involved, and an increasing vulnerability of ecosystems to invasions, which results from other pressures such as habitat loss, degradation, fragmentation, overexploitation and climate change. The situation is particularly worrying in marine and island ecosystems (EEA, 2010). According to the most recent global analysis of the Red List (IUCN, 2012), IAS constitute a severe threat to various taxonomic groups of plants and animals. The Red List Index allows the impacts of alien species on the conservation status of native species to be quantified and indicates the rates at which affected species are moving towards or away from extinction. Amphibians are known to be particularly affected by IAS and their associated pathogens and diseases. A recent analysis regarded IAS as a threat to 8 out of the 11 species of amphibians whose Red List status deteriorated between 2004 and 2009 (Rabitsch et al., 2016). Horticulture and ornamental plant trade are by far the most important pathways of plant introductions to Europe (Keller et al., 2011). According to the data from EASIN ( 65 ), stowaway (introductions through shipping, aviation and land transport) is the main pathway for introductions of both terrestrial and aquatic alien species (Katsanevakis et al., 2015). It is difficult to identify and quantify the role of climate change in species invasions. However, a recent modelling study on '100 of the world's worst invasive alien species' indicates that, besides habitat characteristics and socio-economic variables such as the distance to airports, seaports and human population density, climate variables were the main predictors of the distribution of the studied invasive species (Bellard et al., 2013). Climate change mitigation and adaptation measures may also contribute to the introduction of new species, for example through cultivation of energy plants and increasing use of dry-adapted species in forestry (IUCN, 2009). It is important to note that, while improved border control regulations at Europe's external borders might limit new invasions, many alien species are already in Europe. Many of these species are currently limited by various environmental factors, but they might become invasive at some point in the future and no control measures are currently in place to limit invasions from such species. An increasing number of warm-adapted alien plant species have recently become established in central Europe, such as palms, cacti and evergreen tree species (Berger et al., 2007; Walther et al., 2007; Essl and Kobler, 2009). One example is the windmill palm (Trachycarpus fortunei), which was introduced more than a century ago, but became established in the wild only recently after the average winter temperature increased and the severity of cold spells decreased (Berger et al., 2007). Alien plant species have also increased their range by moving uphill (Pauchard et al., 2009). Most alien plant species originate from warmer regions and will therefore benefit from the projected climate change in Europe (Walther et al., 2009; Schweiger et al., 2010; Hulme, 2012). For example, future climate will become more suitable for 30 major invasive alien plant species in large parts of Austria and Germany under different climate change scenarios (Kleinbauer et al., 2010b). ( 64 ) Delivering Alien Invasive Species Inventories for Europe (DAISIE) is a research project funded by the European Commission through the Sixth Framework Programme, and by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH); see http://www.europe-aliens.org. ( 65 ) The European Alien Species Information Network (EASIN) was launched in 2012 by the European Commission to facilitate the exploration of information on existing alien species and to assist the implementation of European policies on biological invasions; see http://easin.jrc. ec.europa.eu. 172 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
Climate change impacts on environmental systems Box 4.7 Alien species and climate change: new establishments and new ranges? (cont.) The red-eared slider turtle (Trachemys scripta elegans) is native to eastern North America and was introduced to Europe as a pet in the 1960s (ISSG, 2011). In Europe, it can currently only reproduce in the Mediterranean, but this range is projected to shift further northwards with climate change (Ficetola et al., 2009). The spread of alien animal species into new regions is favoured by the impact of climate change on ecosystems and landscapes (e.g. rapid climatically driven change in ecosystem composition), by a weakening resistance of native species to alien predators and parasites, and by decreasing climatic constraints on warm-adapted alien species (e.g. research findings suggest that the pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus), a freshwater fish, will become more invasive under warmer climatic conditions) (Copp and Fox, 2007). Indicators of alien species can provide vital information on the trends of biological invasions and on the efficacy of response measures put in place for use in biodiversity policy. Based on the current policy needs and previous work on the global scale, a recently published paper has suggested a set of six indicators for invasive species in Europe, which capture complementary facets of biological invasions in Europe: (1) a combined index of invasion trends, (2) an indicator on pathways of invasions, (3) the Red List Index of IAS, (4) an indicator of the impacts of IAS on ecosystem services, (5) trends in the incidence of livestock diseases and (6) an indicator on the costs for management of and research on alien species (Rabitsch et al., 2016). Figure 4.17 Trends and temporal variation of the importance of the main pathways of introduction in Europe of terrestrial and aquatic alien species Terrestrial Aquatic % Number of new species % 100 900 100 Number of new species 400 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 ≤ 1950 1951–1960 1961–1970 1971–1980 1981–1990 1991–2000 2001–2010 0 0 ≤ 1950 1951–1960 1961–1970 1971–1980 1981–1990 1991–2000 2001–2010 0 Unknown Contaminated commodities Other escapes Aquaculture Stowaway Other Other releases Pets-terrarium-aquarium Corridors Total new introductions Note: The figures show the overall trends in the number of terrestrial (left) and aquatic (right) alien species introductions to Europe (black line, right scale) as well as the relative importance of main pathways over time (coloured bars, left scale). Source: Adapted from Katsanevakis et al., 2015. Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report 173
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EEA Report No 1/2017 Climate change
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Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © J
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Contents 3 Changes in the climate s
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Contents 6 Multi-sectoral vulnerabi
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements R
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Acknowledgements Chapter 6: Multi-s
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Executive summary Executive summary
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Executive summary ES.1 Introduction
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Executive summary EU climate policy
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Executive summary dispersal of inva
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Executive summary Human health The
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Executive summary Table ES.1 Key ob
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Executive summary For 34 out of the
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Executive summary precipitation, th
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Executive summary as a result of cl
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Executive summary thereby deliverin
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Introduction 1.1.2 Content and data
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Introduction 1.1.3 Changes compared
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Introduction Table 1.4 Overview of
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Introduction collaboration between
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Introduction The primary characteri
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Introduction Table 1.7 Data coverag
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Introduction 1.3 Uncertainty in obs
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Introduction • attribution of an
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Introduction Article 4.4 of the UNF
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Policy context 2 Policy context 2.1
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Policy context In addition, the 203
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Policy context EU Adaptation Strate
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Policy context Map 2.1 Overview of
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Policy context Baltic Marine Enviro
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Policy context includes recommendat
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Changes in the climate system Figur
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Changes in the climate system in Eu
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8 Abbrev
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8.2 Acro
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References References Executive sum
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References EEA, 2004, Impacts of Eu
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References Adaptation to Climate Ch
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References EEA, 2015a, National mon
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References high-resolution climate
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References Fischer, E. M., Sedláč
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References Geophysical Research Let
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References Barletta, V. R., Sørens
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References Discussions 15(14), 20 0
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References Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T
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References L. R., Delgado Granados,
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References Chust, G., Allen, J. I.,
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References antropogent karbon i de
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References face of climate change',
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References Gerritsen, H., 2005, 'Wh
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References Andersen, K. K. and Chri
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References EEA, 2012b, Towards effi
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References Naturwissenschaften Schw
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References Arneth, A., Harrison, S.
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References northern margin of its d
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References Hegland, S. J., Nielsen,
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References weather', Agricultural a
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References 'The new assessment of s
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References Schweiger, O., Settele,
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References 'Warming experiments und
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References Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A
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References Burkart, K., Canário, P
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References Gertler, M., Durr, M., R
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References the environmental condit
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References Semenza, J. C., Sudre, B
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References Brisson, N., Gate, P., G
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References Lesk, C., Rowhani, P. an
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References Vitali, A., Segnalini, M
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References Rübbelke, D. and Vögel
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References Nemry, F. and Demirel, H
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References Pons, M., López-Moreno,
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References indicators of impacts an
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References Roudier, P., Andersson,
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References Global Environmental Cha
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References Chierici, M. and Fransso
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References the Pyrenees from a set
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References change on olive crop eva
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References Steeneveld, G. J., Koopm
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European Environment Agency Climate
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Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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