Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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Changes in the climate system Map 3.10 Projected changes in heavy precipitation in winter and summer Winter-20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 60° 70° Summer -20° -10° 0° 60° 70° 0 500 1 000 1 500 km 20° 40° 0 500 1 000 1500 km 20° 40° Heavy winter and summer precipitation change (%) < – 25 – 25 to – 15 – 15 to – 5 – 5 to 5 5 to 15 15 to 25 25 to 35 35 to 45 > 45 Outside coverage Note: This map shows projected changes in heavy daily precipitation (%) in winter and summer for 2071–2100, compared with the baseline period 1971–2000, for the RCP8.5 scenario based on the ensemble mean of different RCMs nested in different GCMs. Source: EURO-CORDEX (Jacob et al., 2014). 84 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
Changes in the climate system 3.2.6 Wind storms Key messages • Storm location, frequency and intensity have shown considerable decadal variability across Europe over the past century, such that no significant long-term trends are apparent. • Recent studies on changes in winter storm tracks generally project an extension eastwards of the North Atlantic storm track towards central Europe and the British Isles. • Climate change simulations show diverging projections on changes in the number of winter storms across Europe. However, most studies agree that the risk of severe winter storms, and possibly of severe autumn storms, will increase for the North Atlantic and northern, north-western and central Europe over the 21st century. Relevance Wind storms are atmospheric disturbances that are defined by strong sustained wind. They can range from relatively small and localised events to large features covering a substantial part of the continent. Large storms in Europe are extra-tropical cyclones; they develop from low-pressure weather systems that capture their energy from the temperature contrast between the sub-tropical and polar air masses that meet in the Atlantic Ocean. In northern and north‐western Europe, severe cyclones can occur all year. In central Europe, severe cyclones occur mainly between November and February, but weaker cyclones can also occur in other seasons. Wind storms can lead to structural damage, flooding and storm surges (see Sections 4.2, 4.3 and 5.1), which may be caused either by the wind itself, in particular short gusts, or by accompanying heavy precipitation. These events can have large impacts on human health and on vulnerable systems, such as forests, as well as transport and energy infrastructures. According to Munich RE's natural catastrophe loss database (NatCatSERVICE) (Munich RE, 2015), storms were the costliest natural hazard (in terms of insured losses) in Europe between 1980 and 2013; they ranked fourth in terms of the number of human casualties (see Section 5.1). The European regions most strongly affected were north-western, western and northern Europe, in particular regions close to the coast (Outten and Esau, 2013; Osinski et al., 2015). Studies of storm activity have increased in recent years as a result of improved observational datasets, the development of algorithms for the identification and quantification of these phenomena, and improved understanding of the causation of extreme weather events. In addition, high-resolution GCM simulations for both present-day climate and climate change scenarios are increasingly becoming available. Nevertheless, there are still considerable uncertainties in the historical records and in our understanding of the processes influencing current storm activity and how these may be affected by climate change (Ulbrich et al., 2009; Nikulin et al., 2011; Krueger et al., 2013; Outten and Esau, 2013; Feser et al., 2014; Pfahl, 2014; Osinski et al., 2015). Past trends Studies of past changes in extra-tropical storms have used a variety of methods, making it difficult to compare the results of different studies or to assess if there is any underlying trend in climate change. Storm location and intensity in Europe has shown considerable variation over the past century, but northern hemisphere storm tracks and intensity have likely shifted northwards since at least 1970 (Ulbrich et al., 2009; Hov et al., 2013). Wind data at the local or regional levels can show a series of decreases and increases continuing over several decades. Long records of wind speed for various regions across Europe indicate that storm intensity (i.e. storminess) has not significantly changed over the past 200 years. Available studies of storminess in north-western Europe indicate relatively high levels during the 1880s, followed by below-average conditions between the 1930s and 1960s, a pronounced increase in storminess until the mid-1990s, and average or below-average activity afterwards. Somewhat similar patterns were observed in other parts of Europe (Matulla et al., 2007; Feser et al., 2014). There is low confidence in the robustness of reanalysis results for extreme wind speeds before the middle of the 20th century (Hartmann et al., 2013; Feser et al., 2014). A single reanalysis study for the period Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report 85
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EEA Report No 1/2017 Climate change
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Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © J
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Contents 3 Changes in the climate s
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Contents 6 Multi-sectoral vulnerabi
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements R
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Acknowledgements Chapter 6: Multi-s
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Executive summary Executive summary
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Executive summary ES.1 Introduction
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Executive summary EU climate policy
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Executive summary dispersal of inva
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Executive summary Human health The
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Executive summary Table ES.1 Key ob
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Executive summary For 34 out of the
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Executive summary precipitation, th
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Executive summary as a result of cl
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Executive summary thereby deliverin
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Introduction 1.1.2 Content and data
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Page 52 and 53: Policy context 2 Policy context 2.1
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8 Abbrev
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8.2 Acro
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References References Executive sum
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References EEA, 2004, Impacts of Eu
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References Adaptation to Climate Ch
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References EEA, 2015a, National mon
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References high-resolution climate
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References Fischer, E. M., Sedláč
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References Geophysical Research Let
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References Barletta, V. R., Sørens
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References Discussions 15(14), 20 0
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References Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T
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References L. R., Delgado Granados,
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References Chust, G., Allen, J. I.,
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References antropogent karbon i de
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References face of climate change',
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References Gerritsen, H., 2005, 'Wh
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References Andersen, K. K. and Chri
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References EEA, 2012b, Towards effi
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References Naturwissenschaften Schw
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References Arneth, A., Harrison, S.
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References northern margin of its d
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References Hegland, S. J., Nielsen,
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References weather', Agricultural a
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References 'The new assessment of s
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References Schweiger, O., Settele,
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References 'Warming experiments und
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References Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A
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References Burkart, K., Canário, P
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References Gertler, M., Durr, M., R
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References the environmental condit
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References Semenza, J. C., Sudre, B
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References Brisson, N., Gate, P., G
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References Lesk, C., Rowhani, P. an
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References Vitali, A., Segnalini, M
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References Rübbelke, D. and Vögel
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References Pons, M., López-Moreno,
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References indicators of impacts an
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References Roudier, P., Andersson,
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References Global Environmental Cha
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References Chierici, M. and Fransso
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References the Pyrenees from a set
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References change on olive crop eva
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References Steeneveld, G. J., Koopm
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European Environment Agency Climate
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