Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
Box 5.1
Regional case studies from the MACSUR project (cont.)
North Savo region (Finland)
This region covers an area of 2 million ha, of which only 7.3 % is in agricultural use, most of which is for dairy production, with
56 % of the agricultural area being grass. The milk production per cow is relatively high, but the livestock density is low. The
cereals grown are primarily spring barley and oats, covering 30 % of the agricultural area.
Climate change causes higher temperatures and rates of precipitation, especially in the winter. Both droughts and wet
conditions in the summer have been observed as becoming more frequent. The combined effect of more frequent wet
conditions, heavier axle loads with increasing farm size, and higher costs of not harvesting grass silage at the right times has
led to gradually increasing soil compaction problems, resulting in declining soil fertility. Higher temperatures, which are more
marked in winter than in summer, lead to increasing winter damage to grasslands. Melting snow and loss of snow cover,
followed by low temperatures of – 20 to – 30 °C, cause ice encasement and frost damage. Plant pests and diseases are also
becoming more abundant.
The projected increase in temperatures and in the frequency of many adverse weather conditions require long-term
investments in drainage, soil structure and other equipment. Some farmers have made such investments already, but many
farmers find them risky because of the increased volatility of input and output prices. Despite the increased frequency of
adverse weather conditions, the gradually increasing crop yield potential of grass may result in higher actual yields on farms.
This would lead to efficiency gains and cost savings. New cultivars of grass and cereals provide opportunities to increase or
retain crop yield levels. However, the projected increase in potential production in the region is not likely to be realised, as
production costs in the region are still relatively high, despite rapid structural changes.
Mostviertel region (Austria)
The Austrian Mostviertel region is a hilly to mountainous agriculturally diverse and fertile region situated in the Alpine foothills
between the Danube and the Alps. Large pear and apple trees scattered over the landscape give the region its name ('Most'
being German for 'cider'). Cropland is prevalent in the north — the main crops being maize and winter wheat — while in the
south permanent grassland dominates the agricultural landscape. Along this gradient are arable and mixed livestock farms
specialised in bull and pig fattening in the north and in dairy and suckler cow farms in the south.
The temperature change has been more pronounced in the Alps than in the northern hemisphere on average, and Alpine
temperature is expected to increase by + 1.5 °C by the middle of the 21st century. Precipitation has shown no clear trend, and
future changes in precipitation, although uncertain, are of particular importance because of the susceptibility of agricultural
land in this region to soil erosion by water (Mitter et al., 2014). An integrated modelling framework was applied on a climate
scenario of + 1.5 °C warming and at least a 20 % increase in annual precipitation. Major adaptation options include changes
in crop species and crop management (e.g. fertilisation intensity, irrigation, mowing frequency on meadows), land-use change
(e.g. conversion of permanent grassland to either cropland or forests) and changes in livestock management (e.g. livestock
numbers and feeding diets).
Until 2040, increasing temperatures accompanied by sufficient precipitation for rainfed agriculture are likely to increase crop
productivity on average, despite increasing soil erosion risks from extreme precipitation events and unknown changes in pests
and diseases. The results of the integrated modelling framework show increasing average farm gross margins between + 1 %
and + 5 %, subject to autonomous adaptation by farmers. Farmers in the region acknowledge the demand for adaptation
to climate change but also express their need for guidance on new crops, varieties and cropping techniques to manage the
emerging risks. Fertilisation levels are likely to increase, but irrigation will play a role only for high-value crops. Grasslands will
particularly benefit from climatic changes and are less susceptible to soil erosion by water. More favourable conditions may
even enhance the conversion of permanent grasslands to cropland in the long run if this is not constrained by adverse soil
conditions and steepness. However, results indicate a considerable spatial heterogeneity among farms, even within a small
landscape, mainly driven by different soil conditions.
Oristanese region (Sardinia, Italy)
This region covers 60 000 ha and is characterised by a variety of Mediterranean rainfed and irrigated farming systems. More
than half of the agricultural area is equipped for irrigation, but only 30 % is actually irrigated. Of these, some 3 000 ha are
cultivated with paddy rice and another 6 000 ha with silage maize–Italian ryegrass double crop or lucerne for dairy cattle
feeding. Horticultural crops (mainly artichokes and melon, as well as citrus fruit and vineyards) are also present. Some 50 %
of the rainfed area is managed as temporary grasslands in rotation with hay crops (30 %), which represent some 70 % of the
diet of dairy sheep (the main livestock business of Sardinia) and beef cattle grazing systems. Durum wheat, barley, oats and
triticale are also grown in this area.
226 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report