Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
5.6.2 Summer and beach tourism
A growing number of studies have assessed the likely
impacts of climate change on summer and beach
tourism in Europe. Some of these studies have used
the tourism climate index (TCI), which is a composite
measure for systematically assessing the climatic
elements that are most relevant to the quality of the
tourism experience for the 'average' summer tourist
(Amelung and Moreno, 2009, 2011; Ciscar et al., 2009;
Perch-Nielsen et al., 2010; Nicholls and Amelung,
2015). The TCI uses a weighted aggregate of several
climate variables (i.e. maximum and mean daily
temperature, humidity, precipitation, sunshine and
wind) to assess human comfort for general outdoor
activities (Mieczkowski, 1985). The TCI has been
criticised because of the intrinsic subjectivity of the
weighting and the rating of the components of the
index (de Freitas et al., 2008); however, it has been
partly validated for the Mediterranean countries within
the PESETA study (Amelung and Moreno, 2011).
Map 5.21 compares the TCI for baseline and projected
future climate conditions in Europe in all seasons.
According to these maps, climate resources in the
reference period are generally best in southern
Europe (left column). Over the 21st century, climate
change is projected to shift the latitudinal band of
favourable climate northwards, thereby improving
climate resources in northern and central Europe in
most seasons (central column). Southern Europe's
tourism suitability drops strikingly in the summer
holiday months; this drop is partially compensated
for by improvements in other seasons (right column).
Further detailed analysis of the change in the number
of acceptable, good and excellent days per month for
eight European regions is available in the original study
(Perch-Nielsen et al., 2010).
Several recent studies have used econometric
approaches and economic modelling approaches to
identify the economic impacts of climate change on
tourism under different assumptions for adaptation
(Barrios and Ibañez Rivas, 2013; Ciscar et al., 2014;
Rosselló and Santana-Gallego, 2014; Perrels et al.,
2015). Despite somewhat different approaches,
all of the available studies come to broadly similar
conclusions (Rosselló-Nadal, 2014). Conditions for
beach tourism averaged across Europe are expected
to improve, as mean temperatures will rise. The
beach season will be prolonged, into spring and
autumn, in southern regions. Competition between
beach destinations in Europe will increase, as climate
conditions at the Atlantic and northern European
coasts improve, while summer temperatures in some
Mediterranean destinations may become too hot in the
summer holiday months, leading to a loss of overnight
stays. However, the Mediterranean region is expected
to remain by far the most popular beach destination
(Perrels et al., 2015). In summary, domestic tourism
and tourist arrivals at locations in northern and parts
of continental Europe may be enhanced at the expense
of southern locations, in particular after 2050 (Kovats
et al., 2014). The economic impacts of these changes
depend largely on whether tourists will predominantly
adapt by changing their destination or by changing
their timing of travel. In particular, a widespread
holiday shift to shoulder seasons would result in
reduced gains for northern destinations and lower
losses for southern destinations (Ciscar et al., 2014).
The European tourism industry is also highly sensitive
to the economic situation in Europe and globally, as
well as to demographic change. Furthermore, tourism
may compete with agriculture or other sectors for land
and water resources, which in turn may be affected
by climate change. These interactions are increasingly
studied at a regional and national level (in particular
in Spain), but they are too complex for systematic
inclusion in European-level assessments. Studies
considering the direct impact on tourism, together
with other climate change impacts, have identified
potentially more severe, but also less predictable,
impacts.
264 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report