Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
Table 5.5
Overview of studies on climate change impacts on future energy demand (cont.)
Study Region Date of
projection
De Cian et al., 2012 OECD 2085 Natural gas, oil
products, electricity
Ciscar et al., 2014 Europe 2071–2100 Heating demand
(various fuels);
cooling demand
(electricity);
residential and
tertiary sector
Raible and
CH2014-Impacts
Initiative, 2014,
Chapter 10
Mima and Criqui,
(2015)
Switzerland 2035, 2060,
2085
Which demand? Change in demand Peak demand
Heating and cooling
demand
Europe 2020–2100 Heating demand (oil,
gas, biomass and
electricity); cooling
demand (electricity);
residential and
tertiary sector
Decrease in overall
energy consumption
across the EU
(e.g. – 14 Mtoe of
electricity in Norway
and – 180 Mtoe of all
fuels in the United
Kingdom)
– 13 % (3.5 °C
scenario) and – 7 %
(2 °C scenario)
compared with
1961–1990
Overall decrease:
– 3 % to –18 % by
2060, – 4 % to – 29 %
by 2085
– 15 % to – 35 %
decrease in EU
heating demand in
SRES A1B by 2010;
+ 3 % annual increase
in EU cooling demand
+ 8.7 Mtoe (equivalent
to + 13 %) in
Switzerland
+ 8 % southern
Europe in the 3.5 °C
scenario
+ 248.5 % in 2050
for cooling (no
information for
2085); more than
compensated for,
however, by decrease
in heating demand
Four-fold increase
in cooling demand
in tertiary sector by
2100
Note:
All of the studies take into account macro drivers and separate the effects of these drivers from those stemming directly from climate
change, either by controlling for macro drivers such as GDP, population, income and GDP per capita in the econometric models
estimated, or by keeping track of their roles in the SRES scenarios and isolating their effects from the purely climatic ones (with the
possible exception of the last study, where this is not explicitly mentioned).
250 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report