Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on environmental systems
current distributions as a result of a 2 °C rise in global
temperatures (Pearce-Higgins et al., 2015).
Animals generally have a greater capacity than plants
to escape unfavourable climatic conditions because
of their greater mobility, but they are also affected
by climate change. A study based on bioclimatic
envelope modelling for 120 native terrestrial European
mammals under two climate scenarios showed that
1 % or 5–9 % of European mammals risk extinction
(Levinsky et al., 2007). Another study simulated
phylogenetic diversity for plants, birds and mammals
in an ensemble of forecasts for 2020, 2050 and 2080
(Thuiller et al., 2011). The results show that the tree
of life faces a homogenisation across the continent
as a result of a reduction in phylogenetic diversity in
southern Europe (where immigration from northern
Africa was not considered) and gains in high latitudes
and altitudes. The limited dispersal ability of many
reptiles, amphibians and butterflies, combined with
the fragmentation of habitats, is very likely to reduce
and isolate the ranges of many of those species (Araújo
et al., 2006; Hickling et al., 2006; Settele et al., 2008).
A study on the effects of projected climate change on
181 terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean region
projected average declines in species' ranges between
11 and 45 %, depending on the climate scenario and
assumptions regarding dispersal (Maiorano et al.,
2011). Under a scenario of 3 °C warming above
pre‐industrial levels by 2100, the ranges of European
breeding birds are projected to shift by about 550 km
to the north-east, whereby average range size would
be reduced by 20 %. Arctic, sub-Arctic and some Iberian
species are projected to suffer the greatest range
losses (Huntley et al., 2008).
A comprehensive assessment simulated the current
climatic niche and future climatically suitable
conditions for almost all European bumblebee species
based on over one million records from the STEP
project ( 63 ) and three climate change scenarios for
the years 2050 and 2100 (see Map 4.16). The number
of species on the verge of extinction by 2100 ranges
from three (5 % of assessed species) under the lowest
climate scenario to 25 (45 % of species) under the
highest scenario; under the highest scenario, 53 out of
56 assessed species (95 %) would lose the main part
of their suitable habitat (Rasmont et al., 2015). The
risk of exposure to extreme climates was investigated
using four global circulation model outputs and
three emissions scenarios. In total, 1 149 species
were simulated (104 amphibians, 248 reptiles,
288 mammals and 509 breeding birds). The results
showed that the main hotspots of biodiversity for
terrestrial vertebrates may be significantly influenced
by climate change, with a regional hotspot in the
Mediterranean (Maiorano et al., 2013).
In the Arctic and sub-Arctic, warmer and wetter future
conditions allow a considerable number of mammals,
reptiles, amphibians and birds to expand their
distribution range. However, various species (especially
habitat specialists) are expected to contract their range
over time. Furthermore, a number of new species
are predicted to be able to invade the region, altering
community composition and biotic interactions in ways
difficult to anticipate (Hof et al., 2012).
As the climatic conditions of some locations in
Europe change, they may become more favourable
to the establishment and survival of alien species,
making native species, communities and ecosystems
more vulnerable (see Box 4.7) (EC, 2014a). On the
other hand, climate change may also offer some
opportunities to control alien species that are
predicted to suffer from climate change. Whereas
some components of global change, such as rising CO 2 ,
usually promote invasion, other components, such as
changing temperature and precipitation, can help or
hinder plant invasion. Therefore, in some cases climate
change can offer unprecedented opportunities for
restoration of species distribution.
( 63 ) For more information on the Status and Trends of European Pollinators (STEP) project, see http://www.step-project.net.
170 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report