Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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Multi-sectoral vulnerability and risks to those experienced under 'fragmentation', but stronger economic growth would provide more positive opportunities for developing adaptation actions. The overall conclusions of the storylines fit those that can be extracted from the other studies of cross-sectoral impacts and vulnerability: the greatest challenges appear to be concentrated in southern Europe and the Mediterranean regions of the EEA region, especially under a fragmentation storyline. Opportunities for technological and social innovations for adaptation are greater in a middle-of-the-road storyline than under fragmentation. Table 6.3 Overview of the management challenges related to vulnerabilities to climate change for two storylines and four European regions Topic Storyline Northern Europe and Arctic Management of Middle of the road urban areas Fragmentation North-western Europe Central and eastern Europe Southern Europe and the Mediterranean Management of rural settlements Middle of the road Fragmentation Management of energy consumption in housing Middle of the road Fragmentation Management of hydropower production Middle of the road Fragmentation Power production with boilers Middle of the road Fragmentation Water management Middle of the road Fragmentation Management of agriculture Middle of the road Fragmentation Forest management Middle of the road Fragmentation Coastal management Middle of the road Fragmentation Management of health care Middle of the road Fragmentation Biodiversity management Middle of the road Fragmentation Development and diffusion of green innovations Middle of the road Fragmentation Legend Mainly positive opportunities Balance between negative challenges and positive opportunities More negative challenges than positive opportunities Mainly negative challenges Source: Adapted from BASE project, 2016. 282 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
Multi-sectoral vulnerability and risks 6.3 Projected economic impacts of climate change in Europe Key messages • Estimates of the projected economic impacts of climate change in Europe are emerging, but the coverage of these estimates remains only partial and there is considerable uncertainty. • Recent studies indicate that the economic costs of climate change will potentially be high, even for modest levels of climate change, and these costs rise significantly for scenarios of greater levels of warming. For example, the PESETA II study estimates that the annual total damages from climate change in the EU would amount to around EUR 190 billion (with a net welfare loss estimated to be equivalent to 1.8 % of current GDP) under a reference scenario (SRES A1B) by the end of the 21st century. • The projected damage costs from climate change are distributed very heterogeneously across Europe, with notably higher impacts in southern Europe. • Regarding the costs and benefits of adaptation, more information has become available, especially for coastal areas, water management, floods, agriculture and the built environment, but the focus has been on national rather than pan‐European estimates. Climate change will lead to economic costs. These costs, which are often known as the 'costs of inaction', are a useful input to the policy debate. A number of studies have made advancements in pan-European estimates of these costs, using scenario-based impact assessments, and these are the focus of this section. These include the IMPACT2C project (Vautard et al., 2014), which used the RCP and SSP scenarios, the PESETA II project (Ciscar et al., 2014) and the ClimateCost project (Watkiss, 2011), which used SRES. The information from these studies is summarised in Table 6.4. A large number of caveats are associated with these values, reflecting different scenarios, assumptions and methods and dependent on whether results are reported for the impacts of climate change and socioeconomic change together or separately and, for the latter, whether results are reported for current or future socio-economic conditions. There are further issues with the adjustment of values in future time periods and metrics reported (i.e. whether or not they are discounted, annual versus present values; note that the information here generally reports current prices in all future time periods to facilitate direct comparison, over time, and between sectors). Overall, this implies that it is not possible to have a simple aggregated table allowing direct and easy comparison of figures across sectors. There have been a number of studies that have used these direct sector costs as inputs into wider economic models. The PESETA II study used a computable general equilibrium model to look at the economic effects of direct climate effects and the indirect effects on the economy (Ciscar et al., 2014). Under the reference scenario (SRES A1B), this study estimated that the annual total damages from climate change in the EU would be around EUR 190 billion (with a net welfare loss estimated to be equivalent to 1.8 % of current GDP, see Figure 6.3) by the end of century, with particularly high costs in southern European regions. These impacts would be reduced to EUR 120 billion (equivalent to 1.2 % of current GDP) in a 2 °C warmer world. While a significant proportion of the damages are related to heat-related mortality (noting that cold-related benefits were excluded and that values are driven by the valuation approach used), coastal damages and the agriculture sector are also quite significant. However, the assessment covered only a limited number of sectors (and impacts within these), and the estimates for these sectors can be considered only partial, especially due to the omission of potential impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. There have also been a number of regional assessments. For example, the CIRCE project (Navarra and Tubiana, 2013) estimated the economic costs of impacts in the Mediterranean region. Estimates, using a computable general equilibrium model under SRES A1B emissions, suggest that there will be negative economic consequences for major sectors, such as tourism and energy. Furthermore, all Mediterranean countries could lose, on average, 1.2 % of GDP in 2050. The largest economic costs relate to sea level rise and tourism. Box 6.2 presents results from an assessment of the economic effects of warming on labour productivity in two economic sectors in Austria. Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report 283
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EEA Report No 1/2017 Climate change
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Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © J
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Contents 3 Changes in the climate s
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Contents 6 Multi-sectoral vulnerabi
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements R
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Acknowledgements Chapter 6: Multi-s
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Executive summary Executive summary
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Executive summary ES.1 Introduction
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Executive summary EU climate policy
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Executive summary dispersal of inva
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Executive summary Human health The
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Executive summary Table ES.1 Key ob
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Executive summary For 34 out of the
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Executive summary precipitation, th
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Executive summary as a result of cl
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Executive summary thereby deliverin
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Introduction 1.1.2 Content and data
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Introduction 1.1.3 Changes compared
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Introduction Table 1.4 Overview of
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Introduction collaboration between
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Introduction The primary characteri
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Introduction Table 1.7 Data coverag
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Introduction 1.3 Uncertainty in obs
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Introduction • attribution of an
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Introduction Article 4.4 of the UNF
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Policy context 2 Policy context 2.1
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Policy context In addition, the 203
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Policy context EU Adaptation Strate
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Policy context Map 2.1 Overview of
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Policy context Baltic Marine Enviro
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Policy context includes recommendat
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Changes in the climate system Figur
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Changes in the climate system asses
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Changes in the climate system Box 3
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Changes in the climate system in Eu
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Changes in the climate system Box 3
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8.2 Acro
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References References Executive sum
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References EEA, 2004, Impacts of Eu
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References Adaptation to Climate Ch
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References EEA, 2015a, National mon
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References high-resolution climate
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References Fischer, E. M., Sedláč
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References Geophysical Research Let
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References Barletta, V. R., Sørens
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References Discussions 15(14), 20 0
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References Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T
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References L. R., Delgado Granados,
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References Chust, G., Allen, J. I.,
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References antropogent karbon i de
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References face of climate change',
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References Gerritsen, H., 2005, 'Wh
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References Andersen, K. K. and Chri
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References EEA, 2012b, Towards effi
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References Naturwissenschaften Schw
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References Arneth, A., Harrison, S.
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References northern margin of its d
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References Hegland, S. J., Nielsen,
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References weather', Agricultural a
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References 'The new assessment of s
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References Schweiger, O., Settele,
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References 'Warming experiments und
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References Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A
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References Burkart, K., Canário, P
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References Gertler, M., Durr, M., R
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References the environmental condit
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References Semenza, J. C., Sudre, B
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References Brisson, N., Gate, P., G
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References Lesk, C., Rowhani, P. an
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References Vitali, A., Segnalini, M
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References Rübbelke, D. and Vögel
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References indicators of impacts an
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References Roudier, P., Andersson,
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References Global Environmental Cha
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References Chierici, M. and Fransso
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References the Pyrenees from a set
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References change on olive crop eva
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References Steeneveld, G. J., Koopm
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European Environment Agency Climate
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