Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Multi-sectoral vulnerability and risks
wildfires. Key hotspot areas of particular concern
(i.e. with exposure to three or four hazards) are found
along the coasts and in floodplains.
By 2080, most areas in Spain, France, Italy, the Balkan
countries, Bulgaria and Romania, but also in the
Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Ireland, are
projected to be affected by increases in the probability
of hazard occurrence of at least 20 % for three or even
four out of the seven hazards considered. In addition,
when assuming a higher increase in the probability of
hazard occurrence (i.e. at least 100 %, which means
that the likelihood of a hazard occurrence has doubled),
most of these regions are projected to be affected by
three to four hazards (see Map 6.3). These patterns
confirm the critical role of south-eastern and southern
Map 6.3
Projected increase in multi-hazard exposure
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20°
Moderate increase
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
2020s
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10°
Strong increase
20°
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
2020s
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20°
Extreme increase
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
2020s
60°
60°
60°
50°
50°
50°
50°
50°
50°
40°
40°
40°
40°
40°
40°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20°
Moderate increase
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
2050s
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10°
Strong increase
20°
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
2050s
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20°
Extreme increase
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
2050s
60°
60°
60°
50°
50°
50°
50°
50°
50°
40°
40°
40°
40°
40°
40°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20°
Moderate increase
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
2080s
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10°
Strong increase
20°
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
2080s
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20°
Extreme increase
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
2080s
60°
60°
60°
50°
50°
50°
50°
50°
50°
40°
40°
40°
40°
40°
40°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
Projected increase in exposure to multiple climate-related hazards
Number of hazards with moderate/strong/extreme increase
0 1 2 3 4
No data
Outside
coverage
0 500 1 000 1 500 km
Note:
The maps show projected increases in hazard exposure (considering climatic events with a statistical return interval of 100 years) for
three time slices (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) and for three levels: moderate (increases at least 20 %), strong (increases at least 100 %) and
extreme (increases at least 1 000 %).
Source: Adapted from Forzieri et al., 2016.
276 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report