Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
5.4 Energy
Key messages
• Climate change has affected the demand for heating and will affect future energy demand more generally. The total
energy demand in Europe is not expected to change substantially, but significant seasonal shifts and effects on the energy
mix are expected, with large regional differences.
• The number of population-weighted heating degree days has decreased in recent decades, whereas the number of
cooling degree days has increased. As a result, the energy demand for heating has decreased, particularly in northern
and north-western Europe, whereas the energy demand for cooling has increased, in particular in southern and central
Europe. The absolute change is larger for heating degree days, but the relative change is larger for cooling degree days.
• Further increases in temperature and the occurrence of droughts may limit the availability of cooling water for thermal
power generation in summer when the abundance of cooling water is at its lowest.
• Increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and possible increases in storm severity and frequency can have
an impact on both renewable and conventional electricity generators. Most of the projected impacts of climate change
will be negative, but some positive impacts may occur, in particular for renewable energy production in northern Europe.
• Energy transport infrastructures across Europe are exposed to substantial risks from increasing frequency and magnitude
of extreme events induced by climate change. Infrastructures in mountain regions will be threatened by geological
instability owing to increased precipitation. Countries in north-western Europe appear to be ahead in preparedness
regarding coastal energy infrastructure.
5.4.1 Overview
Relevance
Energy plays a fundamental role in supporting all
aspects of modern life. This sector is responsible
directly or indirectly for the majority of anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions (Edenhofer et al., 2014).
At the same time, both energy supply and energy
demand are sensitive to changes in climate, in
particular in temperature. The increasing frequency
of extreme weather events, including heat waves,
droughts and potentially storms, poses additional
challenges for energy systems (Rademaekers et al.,
2011). In particular, the efficiency and outputs of
thermal power plants can be adversely affected by a
rise in temperature or a decrease in the availability
of cooling water (low flows as a result of droughts).
Storms, extreme wind gusts and ice storms could
also pose a challenge for energy infrastructure, such
as transmission and distribution networks, as well
as renewable generators. Increased flooding could
affect power stations and substations. Changed
precipitation patterns or variability could create
greater uncertainty when investing in hydropower
facilities and could alter output, but could also result
in local benefits from increased hydropower output
in some regions. Hydropower production could also
be affected by increased silting of sediment into
reservoirs caused by increased erosion and sediment
displacement as a consequence of climate change.
Other renewable energy supplies could also be affected
by climate change, in particular through impacts on the
production of bioenergy, but also on wind turbines and
solar cells.
Climate change is reducing the demand for space
heating and increasing the demand for space cooling,
both globally and in Europe. However, socio-economic
and technical factors also play an important role in
the future energy demand for heating and cooling.
Projected increases in income levels in the EU are
considered the main driver for increases in the cooling
demand up to 2050, while energy efficiency upgrades
and demand-side management are curbing future
energy demand. This latter factor is particularly
relevant to the fact that the energy sector is a major
source of greenhouse gas emissions and, therefore,
is a major target of mitigation policies. Modelling
the possible future impacts of climate change on
energy demand requires alternative scenarios to be
modelled, which typically differ in the strength of
the mitigation policies to be adopted, which in turn
may support energy efficiency and thus contribute to
reducing energy demand, or may modify the energy
mix and therefore the exposure of the energy system
to stresses induced by climate change such as water
scarcity (Dowling, 2013; Mima and Criqui, 2015).
244 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report