Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
project estimated that the economic damage due to the
decreased availability of nuclear power in France could
be as high as tens of billions of euros per year by 2100
under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and several
billion euros under a medium emissions scenario
(RCP4.5), if the current infrastructure and policies
remain in place (Perrels et al., 2015; ToPDAd, 2015).
Some studies have assessed the system-wide impacts
of future climate change on electricity production.
Results of the ClimateCost project suggest that there
will be significant impacts on electricity generation,
with a worsening of operating conditions for thermal,
hydro and nuclear power plants. These impacts will
translate into losses for the EU energy system that
could reach 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2070 for a
medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) and 150 TWh
in 2060 and 2080 for a low emissions scenario (E1). The
overall economic impacts of changes in the demand
and supply side are estimated as a net loss of 0.11 %
of EU‐28 (Croatia not included) GDP in 2100 for the
SRES A1B scenario. This general result hides, however,
significant regional disparities; moreover, the study
itself points to a considerable degree of uncertainty
about these estimates, stemming from the variability
of climate projections across the climate models used,
particularly in the case of precipitation (and hence
water availability), and from the partial coverage of
relevant impacts, as wind velocity, insolation, extreme
events and droughts may not be included (Mima and
Criqui, 2015). Qualitatively similar conclusions were
reached in the PESETA II project (Dowling, 2013; Ciscar
et al., 2014). The loss in generation efficiency due
to increased cooling requirements for thermal and
nuclear plants may result in a loss of competitiveness
for these sources and, therefore, increase the
proportion of renewable sources in the energy mix
(Dowling, 2013). Moreover, mitigation policy choices
can be a crucial driver of the final impacts on the
energy mix.
Box 5.3
ToPDAd case study for Baltic countries
Preliminary results from the ToPDAd (Tool-supported policy development for regional adaptation) project for the Baltic
countries in northern Europe indicate that climate change is likely to decrease energy sector investment costs by 2050
owing to reduced heating needs and increased hydropower generation. The presented results are based on an energy
sector investment model (the Balmorel ( 103 ) model soft-linked with the TIMES ( 104 ) model) that have been run with and
without climate change scenarios for the ToPDAd EU project (Perrels et al., 2015).
For the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), precipitation and consequently river run-off are projected to increase by 5–20 % in
all Baltic countries. For the medium emissions scenario (RCP4.5), the projected increase was smaller and focused on Norway
and Sweden, which have by far the largest hydropower capacities in northern Europe. While an overall increase in river
run-off looks likely, the magnitude and geographical distribution is uncertain. The projected increases in temperature were
estimated to decrease electricity demand by 1–2 % and district heating demand by 7–11 %, depending on the emissions
scenario.
Owing to emissions restrictions and cost assumptions, the model directs investments mainly to renewable power
generation. As electricity and district heating demand decrease and hydropower production increases, there is less need for
new investments in the power sector, including new wind power investments. The resulting savings in cumulative energy
costs by 2050 for this region range from 2 % to over 5 %, depending on the combination of the RCP (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 or
RCP8.5) and SSP (SSP1, SSP4 or SSP5; see Section 1.2).
The energy sector is characterised by large long-term investments. The impacts of climate change and of mitigation
requirements are expected to be considered when these investments are made. However, considerable uncertainty in the
magnitude and distribution of climate change impacts may lead to some failed investments. The projected cost reductions
also depend on adaptation. The reductions in total annual costs range from 1 % to 2 % if no adaptation takes place; the
savings are slightly higher, from 1.3 % to 2.5 %, in the case of adaptation. However, these estimates are sensitive to a
number of assumptions, in particular emissions constraints and renewable energy targets.
( 103 ) The Balmorel model is a model for analysing the electricity and combined heat and power sectors in an international perspective (see http://
www.eabalmorel.dk).
( 104 ) TIMES: 'The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System' (see http://iea-etsap.org).
252 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report