Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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Climate change impacts on society 5.3.2 Growing season for agricultural crops Key messages • The thermal growing season for agricultural crops in Europe has lengthened by more than 10 days since 1992. The delay in the end of the growing season has been more pronounced than the advance of the start of the season. The length of the growing season has increased more in northern and eastern Europe than in western and southern Europe. • The growing season is projected to increase further throughout most of Europe owing to the earlier onset of growth in spring and later senescence in autumn. • The projected lengthening of the thermal growing season would allow a northwards expansion of warm-season crops to areas that were not previously suitable. In parts of southern Europe (e.g. Spain), warmer conditions will allow crop cultivation to be shifted to the winter. Relevance The thermal growing season is a basic agroecological indicator that shows where and when crops can potentially be grown, assuming sufficient water, radiation and suitable soils. The duration of the growing season is, for a large part of Europe, defined by the duration of the period during which the temperature is above a certain threshold. The duration of the frost‐free season is considered the most favourable period for growth in many plant species (e.g. for flowering). However, active growth of plants requires higher temperatures and, for most of the temperate crops grown in Europe, a threshold temperature of 5 °C can be used (Trnka, Olesen, et al., 2011). Past trends Increasing air temperatures are significantly affecting the duration of the growing season over large areas of Europe. Many studies report a lengthening of the period between the occurrence of the last spring frost and the first autumn frost. This has occurred in recent decades in several areas in Europe and more generally in the northern hemisphere (Trnka, Brázdil, et al., 2011). Studies of changes in the growing season based on remote sensing show a diverse spatial pattern in Europe (Schwartz et al., 2006). Across all of Europe, the delay in the end of the season of 8.2 days in the period 1992–2008 was more significant than the advanced start of the season by 3.2 days (Jeong et al., 2011). An analysis of the frost-free period in Europe between 1985 and 2014 shows a general and clear increasing trend (Map 5.10). The trend is not uniformly spread over Europe. The highest rates of change (an extension of the frost-free period by more than 0.8 days per year) were recorded in eastern and northern Europe; little or no change was observed along the Mediterranean coast, where frost is a rare phenomenon. Projections A warming of the climate is expected to result in an earlier start of the growing season in spring and a longer duration in autumn. The date of the last frost in spring is projected to advance by about 5–10 days by 2030 and by 10–15 days by 2050 throughout most of Europe (Trnka, Olesen, et al., 2011). A longer growing season will, in many cases, allow for the introduction of new crop species that were previously unfavourable owing to low temperatures or short growing seasons, but it may also increase the spread of weeds, insect pests and diseases (Roos et al., 2010). The suitability for growing certain crops will also depend on the total amount of heat received during the growing season, expressed as a temperature sum. Projections show that the greatest absolute increases in temperature sum will be in southern Europe, whereas relative changes are much larger in northern than in southern Europe (Trnka, Olesen, et al., 2011). The extension of the growing season is expected to be particularly beneficial in northern Europe, where new crops could be cultivated and where water availability generally does not restrict growth (Elsgaard et al., 2012). In parts of the Mediterranean area, the cultivation of some crops may shift from the summer season to the winter season, which could offset some of the negative impacts of heat waves and droughts during summer. Other areas of Europe, such as western France and parts of south-eastern Europe, will experience yield reductions from hot, dry summers without the possibility of shifting the crop production into the winter seasons (Mínguez et al., 2007; Olesen et al., 2011). 228 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
Climate change impacts on society Map 5.10 Trend in the number of frost-free days, 1985–2014 -30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70° Trend in the number of frost-free days, 1985–2014 Days/year 60° 50° < – 0.2 – 0.2 to 0.2 0.2 to 0.4 0.4 to 0.6 0.6 to 0.8 > 0.8 50° No data Outside coverage 40° 40° 0 500 1000 1500 km 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° © European Union 2016, source: Joint Research Centre Source: MARS/STAT database ( 98 ). ( 98 ) Monitoring Agriculture with Remote Sensing — Stat Action database. Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report 229
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EEA Report No 1/2017 Climate change
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Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © J
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Contents 3 Changes in the climate s
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Contents 6 Multi-sectoral vulnerabi
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements R
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Acknowledgements Chapter 6: Multi-s
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Executive summary Executive summary
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Executive summary ES.1 Introduction
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Executive summary EU climate policy
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Executive summary dispersal of inva
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Executive summary Human health The
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Executive summary Table ES.1 Key ob
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Executive summary For 34 out of the
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Executive summary precipitation, th
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Executive summary as a result of cl
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Executive summary thereby deliverin
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Introduction 1.1.2 Content and data
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Introduction 1.1.3 Changes compared
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Introduction Table 1.4 Overview of
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Introduction collaboration between
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Introduction The primary characteri
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Introduction Table 1.7 Data coverag
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Introduction 1.3 Uncertainty in obs
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Introduction • attribution of an
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Introduction Article 4.4 of the UNF
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Policy context 2 Policy context 2.1
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Policy context In addition, the 203
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Policy context EU Adaptation Strate
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Policy context Map 2.1 Overview of
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Policy context Baltic Marine Enviro
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Policy context includes recommendat
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Changes in the climate system Figur
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Changes in the climate system asses
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Changes in the climate system Box 3
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Changes in the climate system incre
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Changes in the climate system in Eu
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Changes in the climate system Proje
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Changes in the climate system Map 3
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Changes in the climate system 3.2.4
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Changes in the climate system Map 3
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Changes in the climate system 1871-
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Changes in the climate system 3.3 C
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8 Abbrev
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8.2 Acro
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References References Executive sum
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References EEA, 2004, Impacts of Eu
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References Adaptation to Climate Ch
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References EEA, 2015a, National mon
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References high-resolution climate
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References Fischer, E. M., Sedláč
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References Geophysical Research Let
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References Barletta, V. R., Sørens
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References Discussions 15(14), 20 0
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References Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T
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References L. R., Delgado Granados,
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References Chust, G., Allen, J. I.,
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References antropogent karbon i de
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References face of climate change',
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References Gerritsen, H., 2005, 'Wh
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References Andersen, K. K. and Chri
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References EEA, 2012b, Towards effi
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References Naturwissenschaften Schw
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References Arneth, A., Harrison, S.
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References northern margin of its d
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References Hegland, S. J., Nielsen,
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References weather', Agricultural a
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References 'The new assessment of s
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References Schweiger, O., Settele,
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References 'Warming experiments und
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References Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A
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References Burkart, K., Canário, P
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References Gertler, M., Durr, M., R
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References the environmental condit
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References Semenza, J. C., Sudre, B
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References Brisson, N., Gate, P., G
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References Lesk, C., Rowhani, P. an
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References Vitali, A., Segnalini, M
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References Rübbelke, D. and Vögel
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References Nemry, F. and Demirel, H
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References Pons, M., López-Moreno,
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References indicators of impacts an
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References Roudier, P., Andersson,
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References Global Environmental Cha
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References Chierici, M. and Fransso
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References the Pyrenees from a set
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References change on olive crop eva
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References Steeneveld, G. J., Koopm
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European Environment Agency Climate
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