Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
been observed in Germany and Norway (Semenza and
Menne, 2009).
A high incidence of tick-borne disease is correlated
with mild winters and warm, humid summers in
Hungary, Slovakia and Sweden, although this could
be the result of climate effects on human behaviour
(Ostfeld and Brunner, 2015). A high risk of Lyme
disease has been associated with mild winters, high
summer temperatures, low seasonal variation of
temperatures and high scores on vegetation indices
(Estrada-Pena et al., 2011). There are considerable
differences between the distribution of ticks and the
observed incidence of TBE (Süss et al., 2006). It is not
currently possible to assess the relative importance
of climatic changes and of other factors influencing
disease incidence, including vaccination coverage,
tourism patterns, public awareness, distribution of
rodent host populations and socio-economic conditions
(Randolph, 2008). There is limited evidence that other
tick-borne diseases may be sensitive to climate change.
Some models have suggested that the Mediterranean
basin has become suitable for an expansion of
Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever (Maltezou and
Papa, 2010), but demographic factors, farming practices
and land-use change may be more important drivers
(Estrada-Peña, Jameson, et al., 2012). The distribution
of Rickettsia has also expanded in recent years, but
the reasons for this are not yet well understood
(Gouriet et al., 2006), and few if any recent studies have
interrogated the links between rickettsia diseases and
climate change.
Past trends: mosquito-borne diseases
Mosquito habitats are influenced by temperature,
humidity and precipitation levels. The Asian tiger
mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an important vector
in Europe for transmitting viral diseases, including
Zika, chikungunya and dengue. The first record of its
Map 5.2
Current distribution of Ixodes ricinus ticks in Europe
-30°
-20°
-10°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
Current distribution
of Ixodes ricinus ticks in
Europe, 2016
Presence
Present
60°
Introduced
Anticipated absent
Unknown
50°
Outside coverage
50°
40°
40°
0 500 1000 1500 km
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
30°
Note:
Source:
The map shows the current distribution of the tick species Ixodes ricinus in Europe at the 'regional' administrative level (NUTS3). The map
is based on published historical data and confirmed data provided by experts from the countries as part of the VectorNet project ( 94 ).
However, there is underreporting because the data are not reportable by law.
Copyright © 2016 European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA).
Reproduced with permission.
( 94 ) http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/activities/diseaseprogrammes/emerging_and_vector_borne_diseases/Pages/VBORNET.aspx.
212 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report