Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Contents
3 Changes in the climate system........................................................................................... 61
3.1 Human influence on the climate system.............................................................................61
3.1.1 The climate system.....................................................................................................61
3.1.2 Drivers of climate change..........................................................................................62
3.1.3 Observed climate change and its attribution to specific causes..........................63
3.1.4 Future climate change................................................................................................64
3.1.5 Weather- and climate-related extreme events ......................................................67
3.1.6 Tipping elements in the climate system..................................................................68
3.2 Atmosphere............................................................................................................................69
3.2.1 Overview .....................................................................................................................69
3.2.2 Global and European temperature..........................................................................71
3.2.3 Heat extremes.............................................................................................................77
3.2.4 Mean precipitation.....................................................................................................80
3.2.5 Heavy precipitation....................................................................................................82
3.2.6 Wind storms................................................................................................................85
3.2.7 Hail................................................................................................................................88
3.3 Cryosphere..............................................................................................................................90
3.3.1 Overview .....................................................................................................................90
3.3.2 Arctic and Baltic sea ice..............................................................................................92
3.3.3 Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets..........................................................................96
3.3.4 Glaciers........................................................................................................................99
3.3.5 Snow cover................................................................................................................102
4 Climate change impacts on environmental systems..................................................... 105
4.1 Oceans and marine environment......................................................................................106
4.1.1 Overview....................................................................................................................106
4.1.2 Ocean acidification...................................................................................................108
4.1.3 Ocean heat content..................................................................................................111
4.1.4 Sea surface temperature.........................................................................................113
4.1.5 Distribution shifts of marine species.....................................................................115
4.1.6 Ocean oxygen content.............................................................................................119
4.2 Coastal zones........................................................................................................................122
4.2.1 Overview....................................................................................................................122
4.2.2 Global and European sea level...............................................................................124
4.3 Freshwater systems.............................................................................................................134
4.3.1 Overview....................................................................................................................134
4.3.2 River flows.................................................................................................................137
4.3.3 River floods................................................................................................................140
4.3.4 Meteorological and hydrological droughts ..........................................................144
4.3.5 Water temperature...................................................................................................149
4.3.6 Freshwater ecosystems and water quality............................................................151
4.4 Terrestrial ecosystems, soil and forests............................................................................153
4.4.1 Overview....................................................................................................................153
4.4.2 Soil moisture ............................................................................................................158
4.4.3 Phenology of plant and animal species.................................................................163
4 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report