Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Multi-sectoral vulnerability and risks
6.4.4 Infrastructure and transport
Climate impacts affecting transport, energy and
communication infrastructure outside Europe, such
as roads, pipes, railways, bridges, ports, airports
and tunnels, can have spill-over effects (e.g. supply
disruptions) in Europe. Increased weather- and
climate-related extremes in the future are expected
to increasingly cause damage to key infrastructures
in most parts of the world (IPCC, 2012). In addition,
infrastructures are also at risk from more gradual
climate changes such as sea level rise or thawing of
Arctic permafrost. Infrastructure features such as the
connectedness of electricity grids are of particular
significance, as they can both spread and reduce
indirect impacts (EC, 2015a).
Impacts on coastal infrastructure are of particular
concern for international transport and trade (Oh and
Reuveny, 2010; Nicholls and Kebede, 2012). For
example, ports are key nodes of international supply
chains, as more than 80 % of global trade in goods
(by volume) is transported over the sea. Likewise, over
35 % of all oil refineries globally are located in coastal
zones. An example of indirect effects for Europe via
impacts on coastal infrastructure outside Europe is
the case of Hurricane Katrina. This event destroyed
large parts of the port of New Orleans, which caused
a temporary shortage in global oil supply and thereby
triggered a temporary increase in the global oil price
(Nicholls and Kebede, 2012).
Indirect effects from climate change for Europe's
energy and material supply are also expected in
relation to the projected thawing of Arctic permafrost.
Increasing temperatures in the Arctic are expected
to cause major threats to transportation routes on
frozen ground, thus posing challenges to multiple
economic activities such as forestry or mineral
extraction, and they might also increasingly affect
energy infrastructure (especially oil and gas pipelines)
(Arent et al., 2014; Hewitson et al., 2014).
6.4.5 Geopolitical and security risks
Research is not conclusive about the extent to which
global warming contributes to armed conflict (Theisen
et al., 2013). Nevertheless, there is justifiable concern
across many studies that climate change, and in
particular changes in climate variability and extreme
events, can increase the risk of armed conflict and
geopolitical tensions in certain circumstances and
when occurring in conjunction with other factors,
such as poverty and economic shocks (Hsiang et al.,
2013). As poverty and economic shocks themselves
are sensitive to climate change (i.e. both factors may
be amplified by climate change), climate change may
become a key risk factor. Indeed, the IPCC identified
violent conflicts and insecurity associated with the
effects of climate change as being emergent risks and
research priorities (Oppenheimer et al., 2014).
In Europe, climate change can be seen as a threat
multiplier that may exacerbate existing trends,
tensions and instability both within Europe and across
European borders. Consequently, the effects of
climate change are mentioned explicitly in the recent
European Commission communication on the EU's
approach to external conflicts and crises (EC, 2013).
Likewise, the US national security strategy of 2015 has
integrated climate change risks as a key geopolitical
concern (US Government, 2015), and the G7 members
have recently commissioned a report on this topic,
'A new climate for peace — Taking action on climate
and fragility risks' (Rüttinger et al., 2015). It has been
suggested that an increase in conflicts and natural
disasters owing to climate change is likely to lead to
a greater demand for relief in regions outside Europe
and to a need for more European humanitarian aid
(Vonk et al., 2015).
Of particular concern for Europe are the
Mediterranean countries in North Africa and the
Middle East (Brauch, 2010). Indeed, recent research
suggests that an unprecedented drought in the
southern Mediterranean has been one of many
drivers (e.g. economic situation, governance) shaping
local conflicts that triggered the Syrian civil war, which
ultimately led to the current substantial increase in
refugee flows to Europe. The study concludes that
the likelihood of such an extreme drought in the
southern Mediterranean has increased by a factor
of two to three because of anthropogenic climate
change (Gleick, 2014; Kelley et al., 2015). Likewise,
recent results from regional climate modelling
suggest that temperatures in large parts of the Middle
East will exceed a threshold for human adaptability
towards the end of 21st century under high emissions
assumptions (RCP8.5) (Pal and Eltahir, 2016).
The impacts of climate change on the Arctic region
(see above and Section 6.5) illustrate the multiple
interactions between human security and geopolitical
risks, even though they are not currently associated
with direct geopolitical conflicts. For example, the
projected changes (melting of sea ice, etc.) may
affect claims concerning the borders of the exclusive
economic zones in the Arctic and they may trigger
conflicts about rights and access to new deposits
of natural resources or transportation options
(Houghton et al., 2010).
292 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report