Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
attributable to changing climatic conditions rather than
other factors. According to the IPCC AR5 (IPCC, 2014a),
the increasing exposure of people and economic
assets to climate extremes has been the major cause
of the global long-term increases in economic losses
from climate-related disasters. Long‐term changes
in economic disaster losses adjusted for wealth and
population increases have not been attributed to
climate change, but a role for climate change has not
been excluded either. Available studies for damages
from river floods and storms in Europe suggest that
the observed increases in losses are primarily due
to increases in populations, economic wealth and
developments in hazard-prone areas, but the observed
increase in heavy precipitation in parts of Europe
may have also played a role (e.g. Barredo, 2009, 2010;
Maaskant et al., 2009; Bouwer et al., 2010; te Linde et al.,
2011; Feyen et al., 2012; Visser et al., 2012; Rojas et al.,
2013) (see also Section 3.2.5 and Section 4.3.3). There is
evidence that improved flood protection and prevention
contributed to reducing losses over time in some cases
(e.g. Thieken et al., 2016).
Projections
The IPCC AR5 concludes that high temperature
extremes, heavy precipitation events and droughts will
markedly increase in all or most world regions, including
in Europe. Furthermore, large parts of Europe will face
an increasing drought risk (IPCC, 2013). There is medium
confidence in the fact that climate change will increase
the likelihood of systemic failures across European
countries as a result of extreme climate events affecting
multiple sectors (IPCC, 2014b; Kovats et al., 2014).
Increasing extremes will presumably lead to greater
losses. However, the future cost of climate‐related
hazards in Europe will depend on several factors,
including the resilience and vulnerability of society,
which are variable across hazards and regions.
Further information on projected changes in individual
extreme events is provided in Sections 3.2, 4.2 and 4.3;
projections based on multi-hazard assessments are
presented in Section 6.2.3 and in recent JRC studies
(Forzieri et al., 2015, 2016).
Figure 5.3
Number of events, fatalities, total losses and insured losses from all natural hazards
Number of events
4 443
14.7 %
9.9 %
Fatalities
111 211
23 %
13.7 %
Losses
480 398 million EUR
(2013 prices)
5.4 %
18.2 %
Insured
132 484 million EUR
(2013 prices)
2.8 %
6.7 %
33.3 %
0.8 %
41.3 %
67 %
3 %
4 %
3 %
31.8 %
30.8 %
26.6 %
0.9 %
63.1 %
Geophysical events (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions)
Hydrological events (floods, mass movements)
Meteorological events (storms)
Climatological events (cold waves, droughts, forest fires)
Climatological event (heat waves)
Note:
Source:
This diagram shows the number of events, fatalities, total losses and insured losses (expressed in 2013 values) from all natural hazards
in EEA member countries cumulated over the period 1980–2013. Hazard categories: meteorological events (storms); hydrological events
(floods, mass movements); climatological events (heat waves, cold waves, droughts, forest fires); geophysical events (earthquakes, tsunamis,
volcanic eruptions).
EEA based on data from Munich RE NatCatSERVICE received under institutional agreement.
196 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report