Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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Climate change impacts on society Figure 5.2 Number of climate extremes by loss category over time Number of events 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Note: Source: This figure shows the number of events per loss category based on NatCatSERVICE. Munich RE NatCatSERVICE (data received under institutional agreement). 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Over 500 million 250–500 million 50–250 million 5–50 million 0.5–5 million Less than 0.5 million 194 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
Climate change impacts on society 5.1.3 Economic losses from climate-related extremes Key messages • The total reported economic losses caused by climate-related extremes in the EEA member countries over the period 1980–2013 were almost EUR 400 billion (2013 value). The average damage has varied between EUR 7.6 billion per year in the 1980s and EUR 13.7 billion in the 2000s. • The observed changes in reported losses over time are difficult to interpret, as a large proportion of the total deflated losses has been caused by a small number of events. Specifically, more than 70 % of the damage was caused by only 3 % of all registered events. Relevance Economic losses from extreme climate events have increased, but with large spatial and interannual variability. Reported disaster losses often reflect only structural damages to tangible physical assets, neglecting the impacts on health, integrity of ecosystems and intangible cultural heritage. Hence, the reported economic losses focus on direct losses and should therefore be understood as lower-bound estimates. The changes in recorded losses are, to a large extent, influenced by increased economic wealth. Determining the effect of ongoing climate change in the pattern of loss data remains elusive. Past trends According to the data from NatCatSERVICE (Munich RE), climate extremes accounted for 82 % of the total reported losses in the EEA member countries ( 78 ) over the period 1980–2013, whereas geophysical events such as earthquakes and volcano eruptions are responsible for the remaining 18 %. The main hazards underlying economic losses and fatalities differ substantially from each other. In particular, heat waves represented only 1 % of all hazards and caused only 5 % of the reported losses, but they were responsible for 67 % of all fatalities (Figure 5.3). Further information on fatalities and other health effects from climate‐related extremes is presented in Section 5.2. Recorded losses from climate extremes in Europe amounted to EUR 393 billion (2013 value) ( 79 ), on average EUR 11.6 billion per year, EUR 69 000 per square kilometre or EUR 710 per capita (based on the average population over the entire period 1980–2013). The loss is equal to 0.1 % of cumulative deflated GDP over the analysed period. Around 33 % of the total losses were insured. The distribution of losses caused by climate extremes among the 33 EEA member countries is uneven. The highest losses in absolute terms were registered in the large countries Germany, Italy and France, in rank order. The highest losses per capita were recorded in Switzerland, Denmark and Luxembourg, in rank order; the highest losses expressed as a fraction of GDP over the period were registered in the Czech Republic, Croatia and Hungary, in rank order (see Table 5.1). Losses from natural hazards in Europe have varied substantially over time. The average annual (inflation‐corrected) losses from climate extremes have increased from EUR 7.6 billion in the 1980s to EUR 13 billion in the 1990s and EUR 13.7 billion in the 2000s (see Figure 5.4, which also includes losses from geophysical events for comparison). The changes over time that can be seen in the recorded losses are obfuscated by high variability and are strongly determined by a few exceptionally large events. Around 3 % of events, some of which affected more than one country, account for around 70 % of total inflation-adjusted losses. The most costly climate extremes were the 2002 flood in central Europe (EUR 20 billion), followed by the 2003 drought and heat wave (EUR 16 billion) and the 1999 winter storm 'Lothar' (EUR 14 billion). By contrast, some three‐quarters of the registered events caused only half a percentage point of the total losses. One important issue is the extent to which the observed increase in overall losses during recent decades is ( 78 ) http://www.eea.europa.eu/about-us/countries-and-eionet. ( 79 ) The exact estimate differs by several percentage points depending on the choices made, including the price indices chosen for accounting for inflation, the reference base (annual, monthly) for the conversion between losses expressed in US dollars and euros, etc. Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report 195
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EEA Report No 1/2017 Climate change
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Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © J
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Contents 3 Changes in the climate s
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Contents 6 Multi-sectoral vulnerabi
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements R
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Acknowledgements Chapter 6: Multi-s
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Executive summary Executive summary
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Executive summary ES.1 Introduction
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Executive summary EU climate policy
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Executive summary dispersal of inva
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Executive summary Human health The
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Executive summary Table ES.1 Key ob
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Executive summary For 34 out of the
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Executive summary precipitation, th
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Executive summary as a result of cl
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Executive summary thereby deliverin
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Introduction 1.1.2 Content and data
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Introduction 1.1.3 Changes compared
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Introduction Table 1.4 Overview of
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Introduction collaboration between
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Introduction The primary characteri
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Introduction Table 1.7 Data coverag
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Introduction 1.3 Uncertainty in obs
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Introduction • attribution of an
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Introduction Article 4.4 of the UNF
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Policy context 2 Policy context 2.1
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Policy context In addition, the 203
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Policy context EU Adaptation Strate
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Policy context Map 2.1 Overview of
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Policy context Baltic Marine Enviro
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Policy context includes recommendat
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Changes in the climate system Figur
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Changes in the climate system asses
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Changes in the climate system Box 3
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Changes in the climate system incre
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Changes in the climate system in Eu
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Changes in the climate system Box 3
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Changes in the climate system Proje
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Changes in the climate system Map 3
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Changes in the climate system 3.2.4
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Changes in the climate system 1871-
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Strengthening the knowledge base 7
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Strengthening the knowledge base
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8 Abbrev
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8.2 Acro
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References References Executive sum
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References EEA, 2004, Impacts of Eu
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References Adaptation to Climate Ch
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References EEA, 2015a, National mon
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References high-resolution climate
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References Fischer, E. M., Sedláč
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References Geophysical Research Let
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References Barletta, V. R., Sørens
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References Discussions 15(14), 20 0
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References Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T
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References L. R., Delgado Granados,
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References Chust, G., Allen, J. I.,
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References antropogent karbon i de
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References face of climate change',
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References Gerritsen, H., 2005, 'Wh
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References Andersen, K. K. and Chri
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References EEA, 2012b, Towards effi
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References Naturwissenschaften Schw
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References Arneth, A., Harrison, S.
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References northern margin of its d
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References Hegland, S. J., Nielsen,
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References weather', Agricultural a
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References 'The new assessment of s
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References Schweiger, O., Settele,
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References 'Warming experiments und
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References Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A
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References Burkart, K., Canário, P
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References Gertler, M., Durr, M., R
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References the environmental condit
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References Semenza, J. C., Sudre, B
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References Brisson, N., Gate, P., G
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References Lesk, C., Rowhani, P. an
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References Vitali, A., Segnalini, M
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References Rübbelke, D. and Vögel
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References Nemry, F. and Demirel, H
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References Pons, M., López-Moreno,
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References indicators of impacts an
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References Roudier, P., Andersson,
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References Global Environmental Cha
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References Chierici, M. and Fransso
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References the Pyrenees from a set
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References change on olive crop eva
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References Steeneveld, G. J., Koopm
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European Environment Agency Climate
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Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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