Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
Map 5.14
Probability of the occurrence of adverse agroclimatic conditions for wheat under baseline
and projected climate
Probability -30° of the -20° occurrence -10° of adverse 0° agroclimatic 10 ° conditions 20 ° for 30 wheat ° under 40 ° baseline and 50 ° projected climate 60 °
70 °
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.2
60 °
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0
0
Jyvaskyla
50 °
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Rothamsted
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0.2
0
Wageningen
Tylstrup
Uppsala
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Warsaw
50 °
Mannheim
0.2
0.8
0
40 °
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Sevilla
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Madrid
Clermont–
Ferrand
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Vienna
Montagnano
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Debrecen
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Athens
40 °
0 500 1 000 1 500 km
0°
10 °
20 °
30 °
40 °
Note:
Black rectangles indicate the 1981–2010 baseline climate and box plots indicate the 2060 (RCP8.5) climate scenarios. The calculations
consider a medium-ripening wheat cultivar. The red boxes mark the sites where the results for at least 14 out of the 16 CMIP5 models
showed an increased probability of adverse events compared with the baseline. The orange boxes mark the sites where more than half
of the CMIP5 models showed an increased probability of adverse events.
Source: Adapted from Trnka et al., 2014.
236 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report