Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
5.2 Human health
Key messages
• Climate change is already contributing to the burden of disease and premature deaths in Europe. Its main health
effects are related to extreme weather events, changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases and changes in
environmental and social conditions.
• Heat waves were the deadliest extreme weather event in the period 1991–2015 in Europe. They have caused tens of
thousands of premature deaths in Europe.
• Adverse impacts of future climate change are projected to outweigh beneficial impacts on the global scale. The health
impacts and associated economic costs are also estimated to be substantial in Europe. However, quantitative projections
of future climate-sensitive health risks are difficult owing to the complex relationships between climatic and non-climatic
factors, climate-sensitive disease and other health outcomes.
5.2.1 Overview
Relevance
Climate change is already contributing to the global
burden of disease and premature deaths. Climate
change affects our health and well-being in many
ways, through direct physical impacts (most of them
due to amplified extreme weather events) and
indirect social and economic changes (Figure 5.5).
Many of the indirect effects of climate change will be
simultaneously influenced by other global changes and
socio-demographic pressures that act in conjunction
with climate change. These include several categories
of indirect health impacts and the tertiary effects
on health and survival that arise from more diffuse
disruptions, dislocations and conflicts, which are likely
to increase in future decades and are indicated by
upward-pointing arrows in Figure 5.5 (McMichael, 2013).
Climate change will act mainly by exacerbating health
problems that already exist, and the largest risks will
apply in populations that are currently most affected by
climate-related diseases. The potential health benefits
from milder winters in some regions are, however, not
expected to outweigh the risk of negative health effects
through direct and indirect, immediate and delayed risks
of climate change (McMichael et al., 2012).
In Europe, climate change can increase water scarcity
and quality, and can pose additional challenges for
providing sustainable water and sanitation services
(EEA, 2011b; Ludwig et al., 2011; Sinisi and Aertgeerts,
2011; IPCC, 2014a). Nearly half of over 50 infectious
diseases that the EU Member States are currently
required to report can be directly or indirectly affected
by climate change; other climate-sensitive diseases,
including many vector-borne diseases, are considered
priority infectious diseases in relation to climate change
in Europe (Lindgren et al., 2012).
All people are affected by climate change, but the effect
of climate change on people's health depends largely
on their vulnerability ( 80 ) (e.g. age, pre-existing diseases,
exposure, location) and their ability to adapt, linked
to ecological, social, economic and cultural factors,
including education and access to health systems,
among others (EEA, 2010). Vulnerable population
groups include the elderly and children, the urban
poor, traditional societies, subsistence farmers and
coastal populations (WHO, 2011). Vulnerabilities vary
both within and across European regions. Areas with
high adaptive capacities may be able to mitigate
some of the health-related risks of climate change.
In the European Union, areas with projected high
vulnerabilities to infectious disease transmission
include regions in Bulgaria, Greece, southern Italy, and
Romania (Suk et al., 2014).
Populations in some European areas are at a higher risk
from climate change than others, depending on their
exposure to climatic hazards and their vulnerability.
Climate change will increase the frequency and intensity
of heat waves, and can increase economic losses
and the number of people affected by such extreme
heat events, having impacts on health and well-being,
labour productivity, crop production and air quality,
and increasing the risk of wildfires in southern Europe
(Kovats et al., 2014). Arctic populations are particularly
( 80 ) The term 'vulnerability' is being used in different ways in the climate change context (see Section 1.4 for a more detailed discussion). Its use in
this section follows its general use in epidemiology and public health, where it describes the relationship between exposure to a health hazard
and the health effect.
Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
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