Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
Map 5.4
Climatic suitability for the mosquitos Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Europe
-30° -20° -10°
Aedes aegypti
0°
10°
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40°
50°
60°
70°
-30° -20° -10° 0°
Aedes albopictus
10°
20°
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
60°
60°
50°
50°
50°
50°
40°
40°
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0 500 0° 1000 150010°
km
20°
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40°
0 500 0° 1000 150010°
km
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Climatic suitability for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) in Europe
Suitability (%)
0–9 10–19 20–29 30–39 40–49 50–59 60–69 70–79 80–89 90–100 No prediction
Note:
Source:
The map shows climatic suitability for the mosquitos Aedes aegypti (left) and Aedes albopictus (right) in Europe. Shades of green indicate
conditions that are not suitable for the vector (darker being the most unsuitable), whereas yellow to red colours indicate conditions that
are increasingly suitable for the vector. Grey indicates that no prediction is possible.
ECDC, 2012. Copyright © 2012 European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Reproduced with permission.
The risk of travellers importing Zika, dengue or
chikungunya coincides with the seasons and locations
of active Aedes albopictus in Europe (Semenza et al.,
2014). With continued expansion of Aedes albopictus
in continental Europe, the risk of further introduction
and transmission of Zika, chikungunya and dengue will
continue to exist. The risk of chikungunya introductions
into Europe via returning travellers has probably
increased following the large-scale outbreak of
chikungunya that began in the Caribbean in late 2013
and has subsequently continued in many American
countries (Van Bortel et al., 2014).
Aedes albopictus is not the primary vector for dengue
and, although some parts of Europe are currently
climatically suitable to its primary vector (Aedes
aegypti), the risk of significant dengue transmission
in continental Europe is currently very low, providing
that the vector remains unestablished and control
measures are in place (ECDC, 2012). Aedes aegypti has,
however, been responsible for dengue outbreaks in
European territories, such as the 2013 outbreak in
Madeira, Portugal (ECDC, 2013).
Malaria was largely eradicated in Europe in the second
half of the 20th century. However, the malaria vectors
(Anopheles mosquitos) are still present in much of the
European Union, and a few sporadic cases of local
transmission occur each year (Florescu et al., 2011).
The risk of malaria re-establishment in a particular
region depends on climatic and ecological factors,
as well as human vulnerabilities to infection. During
2009–2012, Greece experienced autochthonous malaria
transmission; temperature and other environmental
variables were identified as determinants of
environmental suitability (Sudre et al., 2013). However,
socio-economic development is a key mitigating factor
of malaria risk (Gething et al., 2010), which therefore
remains very low throughout Europe.
West Nile virus (WNV) infections in humans can be
quite severe, particularly among the elderly, but many
other cases can go unnoticed (more than 60 % are
asymptomatic) and occur through mosquito (Culex
species) bites. Cases can also be acquired through blood
transfusion or organ, tissue and cell transplantations
and, although rare, such cases have been reported
214 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report