Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Multi-sectoral vulnerability and risks
Table 6.4
Overview of cost estimates of projected climate change in Europe (cont.)
Thematic area
(and section in
this report)
Human health
(see also
Section 5.2)
Biodiversity
and ecosystem
services
(see also
Section 4.4 and
Section 4.5)
Pan-European estimates
The costs of heat-related mortality, without adaptation, are estimated to be EUR 11 to 41 billion/year
by the middle of the century (mean ensemble estimates for RCP4.5 at 2 °C, climate and socio-economic
impact, with range reflecting different approaches for valuation, no current or future adaptation,
current prices, undiscounted), with around two-thirds of the increase due to the climate signal alone
(this is based on the IMPACT2C project, with impacts estimated by the WHO and valuation undertaken
by Lacressonnière et al. (2015)). Values vary widely according to whether current adaptation and future
acclimatisation are included or not, and the metric and value used for mortality valuation. The highest
impacts were found in the Mediterranean (Cyprus, Greece and Spain) and some eastern EU Member
States (Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania). Costs rose strongly in later years with greater warming. The
analysis did not consider the potential reduction in cold-related mortality. Additional impacts, including
food‐borne disease, extreme events (deaths and reduced well-being as a result of coastal flooding) and
occupational health (outdoor labour productivity), were valued in the ClimateCost project (Kovats et al.,
2011), although the economic costs were low when compared with the heat-related mortality impacts
outlined above
Climate change poses a potentially wide variety of risks to terrestrial, aquatic and marine biodiversity and
the ecosystem services they provide (provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting services). However,
the valuation of the effects of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services is extremely
complex. While a number of studies have undertaken case studies, this remains an under-explored area,
although there is some analysis of ecosystem shifts under climate change, which use restoration costs to
assess impacts
Figure 6.3
Welfare impacts of climate change for different EU regions and sectors for two emissions
scenarios
Percentage of GDP, 2005 EUR value, undiscounted
1.00
0.50
0.00
– 0.50
– 1.00
– 1.50
– 2.00
– 2.50
– 3.00
– 3.50
Ref. 2 °C
Ref. 2 °C
Ref. 2 °C
Ref. 2 °C
Ref. 2 °C
Ref. 2 °C
Northern
Europe
United Kingdom
and Ireland
Central Europe,
north
Central Europe,
south
Southern
Europe
EU
Coastal Energy Agriculture Forest fire River flood Tourism Transport Health
Note:
The figure shows the projected welfare impacts in the period 2071–2100, compared with 2010. 'Ref.' refers to the SRES A1B emissions
scenario; '2 °C' refers to the ENSEMBLES E1 emissions scenario.
Source: Adapted from Ciscar et al., 2014.
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