Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
5.3.6 Livestock systems
Key messages
• In some areas of southern Europe, higher temperatures and the increasing drought risk are expected to reduce livestock
production through negative impacts on both grassland productivity — which may be partly alleviated by increased CO 2
levels — and animal health.
• A reliance on feed concentrates from beyond Europe is a source of vulnerability under climate change, especially for pig
and poultry production and intensive dairy farming systems.
• The increased growing season for crops and grasslands may boost livestock system production in northern Europe, but
across Europe changes in the distribution of pathogens and pathogen vectors present challenges.
• The projected increase in rainfall in northern Europe may pose challenges for grazing livestock and grass harvesting
owing to the accessibility of land and declining soil fertility through soil compaction.
• Sustainably maximising production resilience and efficiency will require both incremental and step changes in production;
the former are often incentivised by market forces and the latter require long-term strategic policy action to support and
encourage the exploration of transitions to novel farming systems.
Relevance
Livestock production systems are of major economic,
environmental and cultural importance to the EU,
producing outputs worth EUR 168 billion in 2014 and
accounting for 28 % of land use (Leip et al., 2015),
including sites of high biodiversity and cultural value.
As they are reliant on crop and grass yields and quality,
livestock production systems are highly exposed to
the impacts of climate change at local (grazing and
home-grown forage) and global (feed concentrate
imports) levels. Livestock production systems in Europe
are affected by climate change directly (through the
effects of changing environmental conditions on animal
health and welfare) and indirectly (through impacts
on pathogens and feed (quantity, type and quality)
and through the socio-economic changes entangled
with climate change). In this context, international
political settlements and policy choices (relating to both
agricultural and non-agricultural issues) will have an
important influence on, and interact with, production
responses to the evolving impacts of climate change,
adding uncertainty to projections of the future.
Trends in European livestock systems
Livestock production systems are many and varied.
In the EU in 2014, there were 355 million livestock,
consisting of pigs (42 %), cattle (25 %), sheep (28 %) and
goats (4 %). Goats, being concentrated geographically in
the upland regions of southern and eastern Europe, are
of high economic and social importance regionally. The
number of livestock in the EU decreased by 8 % between
2004 and 2014 (FAO, 2016, subset Production‐Live
animals). The number of livestock farms in the EU‐27
decreased by 32 % (from 9 million to 6.1 million)
between 2005 and 2013, with the largest decrease
in eastern European countries, and with production
becoming more specialised at the individual farm and
regional levels (Eurostat, 2016, subset ef_olslsuft).
Intensification has continued alongside land
abandonment in areas of marginal production, with
both processes having potentially negative effects on
biodiversity, ecosystem services, landscapes and rural
communities. The EU experienced a 6 % decrease
in permanent meadows and pastures (from 70 to
66 Mio ha) between 2005 and 2013, which exceeds the
overall decrease in agricultural land of 4 % (from 194
to 187 Mio ha) (FAO, 2016, subset Inputs–Land) ( 102 ).
Production intensification, particularly in monogastric
(pig and poultry) systems, has also led to an increasing
reliance on high-protein feed concentrates, with feed
imports to the EU increasing more than five-fold since
the 1960s. This trend has increased the systemic
vulnerability to changes in world prices and production
( 102 ) In contrast to FAO, Eurostat reports a 5 % increase in permanent meadows and pastures (from 56 to 59 Mio ha) in the EU-27 between 2005 and
2013 (Eurostat, 2016, subset ef_pograss). However, the Eurostat dataset includes very strong (up to 12-fold) increases in permanent meadows
and pastures in a few EU Member States during this period, which raises questions regarding their validity.
240 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report