Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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Multi-sectoral vulnerability and risks 6.1 Socio-economic scenarios for Europe Key messages • Population size in eastern Europe is projected to decrease considerable during the 21st century, with declines of up to 50 % in some countries and scenarios. Population projections for western Europe vary across scenarios and individual countries. For western Europe as a whole, some scenarios project slight increases in population size until the middle of the century, followed by a decline thereafter, and still others assume a continuous decline throughout the 21st century. • Ageing of the population is projected to rise substantially in both western and eastern Europe. Total fertility rates are projected to stay below the natural replacement rate. • Urbanisation is projected to further increase throughout all scenarios. The difference between scenarios in the proportion of the population made up of urban populations is much larger in eastern than in western Europe, where the urban population is expected to increase to more than 90 % of the population in most countries. • Some economic growth is projected under all scenarios, but the magnitude of growth varies strongly between the scenarios, particularly in western Europe. Available projections suggest that the current substantial gap in GDP per capita between eastern and western Europe is expected to be significantly reduced throughout the century, but not to vanish completely. • Estimates of trends in adaptive capacity suggest increasing capacities to cope with the consequences of climate change. However, the current pattern of higher capacity in central and north-western Europe and lower capacity in southern and in particular (some of) eastern Europe is expected to prevail to some degree Non-climatic factors and trends have a significant (and often even dominant) role in shaping the exposure and vulnerabilities of regions, sectors and people, thus contributing to changes in overall climate-related risks. Recent European studies show this for several sectors, such as water, agriculture and forestry (Audsley et al., 2014; Wimmer et al., 2014). For notational convenience, the following text refers to the range of non-climatic developments as 'socio-economic developments'. This section provides information on how these non-climatic factors might change in Europe during the 21st century, thereby complementing the global scenarios presented in Section 1.2. This section is structured based on two dimensions. First, it summarises projections of key socio-economic variables for the five SSPs (for details see Section 1.2, distinguishing between western and eastern Europe and using additional information from recent assessments by the European Commission (EC, 2014b; EEA, 2015). The second dimension summarises results from studies that attempt to capture the role of different non-climatic factors by combining them into one metric of adaptive capacity (or coping capacity). Estimates of adaptive capacity also include projections, where available. The use of different scenarios across impact and vulnerability assessments makes comparisons challenging. From a European vulnerability assessment perspective, particularly relevant sets of scenarios are the IPCC SRES scenarios, the SSP scenarios, and four socio-economic scenarios from the CLIMSAVE project that have been developed jointly by the project and stakeholders in a participatory approach (Dunford et al., 2015; Kok, Bärlund, et al., 2015). The SSP, SRES and CLIMSAVE scenarios do not fully match one another, but may be compared to some extent (see Table 6.1). For example, the SSP3, SRES-A2 and CLIMSAVE 'Icarus' scenarios all assume increasing international fragmentation, characterised by increasing antagonism between countries and within regional blocs, weak international cooperation and governance, low economic and technological development, low social cohesion, low environmental respect, and high carbon intensity. Likewise, the SSP2 and SRES-A1B scenarios share a certain degree of common 'middle of the road' assumptions (i.e. a development where future trends reflect patterns of change from the past decades, while CLIMSAVE has not developed such a scenario). This means that the vulnerability assessments in Section 6.2 that are based on these two scenarios (SSP2 and SRES‐A1B) are to some extent directly comparable with respect to their underlying assumptions about future socio-economic conditions. 268 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
Multi-sectoral vulnerability and risks Table 6.1 Comparison of SSP, SRES and CLIMSAVE scenarios SSP SRES CLIMSAVE Archetype Comment SSP1 B1/A1T 'We are the world' Global sustainability SSP2 B2/A1B – Patterns of historical experience Match is rather poor SSP3 A2 'Icarus' International fragmentation Very good match SSP4 A2 'Riders on the storm' Inequality at all levels Poor match of SSP4 vs. A2 SSP5 A1FI 'Stay or go' Market-driven development Poor match of SSP5/A1FI vs. 'Stay or go' Source: Adapted from van Vuuren and Carter, 2014; and Kok et al., 2015. Demographic and economic scenarios A set of quantitative demographic and economic projections has been developed through a coordinated effort across multiple international modelling teams and they are internally consistent based on the five SSP narratives (Kriegler et al., 2014; O'Neill et al., 2014; van Vuuren et al., 2014; O'Neill et al., 2015). Some relevant elements are summarised below, distinguishing between trends for western and eastern Europe (for a list of countries in both regions, see the note underneath Figure 6.1). In addition, semi‐quantitative and qualitative information on potential socio‐economic developments in Europe for the different SSPs is available in the form of storylines and trends for a variety of variables from the FP7 projects BASE ( 113 ) (see Section 6.2) and IMPRESSIONS ( 114 ) (Kok, Pedde, et al., 2015). There are also other relevant projections including the World Population Prospects (UNDESA, 2015) and a study from the European Commission (EC, 2014b), which do not follow the SSP logic but provide different projections. The European Commission's study uses a single EUROPOP2013 (European Population Projections, base year 2013) convergence scenario (Eurostat, 2013). It is limited to the EU-28 Member States and to a time horizon until 2060, but its results are largely within the range of the SSP scenario family. Note that relevant socio‐economic projections for climate change assessments may also be derived from other Commission sources, such as the CAP context indicators (EC, 2014a). Projections for population size for western Europe vary across the five SSPs, ranging from a steady increase from 410 million in 2010 to 670 million in 2100 (SSP5), to significant declines to 350 and 260 million (SSP4 and SSP3, respectively). SSP1 and SSP2 assume initial moderate increases that peak around the middle of the century and decline thereafter. In sharp contrast, the population is projected to decrease for all five SSPs in eastern Europe. The strongest decrease is projected for SSP4, with a drop from 130 million in 2010 to 70 million (about half of its size) in 2100. For Turkey, which currently has about 73 million inhabitants, three SSPs project only slight changes, while SSP2 and SSP3 project significant population increases to 90 or 150 million by 2100, respectively. According to the European Commission study, the population of the EU-28 is projected to increase slightly from 507 million in 2013 to a peak of about 530 million in 2050, and decline thereafter. Large differences are expected across the EU, with some countries projected to lose more than a quarter of their current population (e.g. Lithuania, Latvia and Bulgaria), while in other countries increases of 25 % or more are expected (e.g. Belgium, Sweden, the United Kingdom). One driver is the total fertility rate, which is expected to stay below the natural replacement rate of 2.1 in the coming decades, although rising from 1.59 in 2013 to 1.76 in 2060. Other factors determining population size are life expectancy at birth, which is projected to increase from 77.6 years in 2013 to 84.7 in 2060, albeit with substantial variation across Europe, and net migration, which is expected to increase further, with the highest levels in countries such as Italy or Germany. Ageing of the population is projected to increase substantially throughout Europe for all SSPs. For western Europe, the percentage of people aged 65 or older is currently around 18 %, and this proportion is projected to roughly double by 2100 (minimum proportion of older people projected to be 33 % for SSP5; maximum proportion of 45 % for SSP4). ( 113 ) BASE: 'Bottom-up Climate Adaptation Strategies Towards a Sustainable Europe'. ( 114 ) IMPRESSIONS: 'Impacts and Risks from High-end Scenarios: Strategies for Innovative Solutions'. Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report 269
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EEA Report No 1/2017 Climate change
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Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © J
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Contents 3 Changes in the climate s
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Contents 6 Multi-sectoral vulnerabi
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements R
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Acknowledgements Chapter 6: Multi-s
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Executive summary Executive summary
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Executive summary ES.1 Introduction
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Executive summary EU climate policy
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Executive summary dispersal of inva
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Executive summary Human health The
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Executive summary Table ES.1 Key ob
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Executive summary For 34 out of the
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Executive summary precipitation, th
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Executive summary as a result of cl
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Executive summary thereby deliverin
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Introduction 1.1.2 Content and data
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Introduction 1.1.3 Changes compared
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Introduction Table 1.4 Overview of
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Introduction collaboration between
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Introduction The primary characteri
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Introduction Table 1.7 Data coverag
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Introduction 1.3 Uncertainty in obs
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Introduction • attribution of an
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Introduction Article 4.4 of the UNF
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Policy context 2 Policy context 2.1
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Policy context In addition, the 203
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Policy context EU Adaptation Strate
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Policy context Map 2.1 Overview of
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Policy context Baltic Marine Enviro
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Policy context includes recommendat
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Changes in the climate system Figur
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Changes in the climate system asses
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Changes in the climate system Box 3
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Changes in the climate system incre
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Changes in the climate system in Eu
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Changes in the climate system Proje
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Changes in the climate system 3.2.4
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Climate change impacts on society 5
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Strengthening the knowledge base
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8 Abbrev
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8.2 Acro
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References References Executive sum
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References EEA, 2004, Impacts of Eu
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References Adaptation to Climate Ch
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References EEA, 2015a, National mon
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References high-resolution climate
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References Fischer, E. M., Sedláč
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References Geophysical Research Let
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References Barletta, V. R., Sørens
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References Discussions 15(14), 20 0
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References Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T
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References L. R., Delgado Granados,
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References Chust, G., Allen, J. I.,
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References antropogent karbon i de
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References face of climate change',
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References Gerritsen, H., 2005, 'Wh
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References Andersen, K. K. and Chri
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References EEA, 2012b, Towards effi
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References Naturwissenschaften Schw
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References Arneth, A., Harrison, S.
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References northern margin of its d
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References Hegland, S. J., Nielsen,
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References weather', Agricultural a
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References 'The new assessment of s
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References Schweiger, O., Settele,
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References 'Warming experiments und
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References Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A
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References Burkart, K., Canário, P
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References Gertler, M., Durr, M., R
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References the environmental condit
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References Semenza, J. C., Sudre, B
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References Brisson, N., Gate, P., G
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References Lesk, C., Rowhani, P. an
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References Vitali, A., Segnalini, M
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References Rübbelke, D. and Vögel
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References Nemry, F. and Demirel, H
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References Pons, M., López-Moreno,
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References indicators of impacts an
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References Roudier, P., Andersson,
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References Global Environmental Cha
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References Chierici, M. and Fransso
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References the Pyrenees from a set
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References change on olive crop eva
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References Steeneveld, G. J., Koopm
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European Environment Agency Climate
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Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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