Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Multi-sectoral vulnerability and risks
water (Kaźmierczak and Cavan, 2011) and pluvial floods
develop. In many places, urban sprawl and densification
have increased the soil sealing and worsened the
situation, while the majority of sewage systems have
the same capacity as when they were designed some
100 years ago. Cities of high and low soil sealing can be
found in all regions, and do not cluster in a particular
region (Prokop et al., 2011; EEA, 2015). In most cities, the
level of soil sealing is between 40 and 60 %, with some
cities having soil sealing as high as 80 %. However, in the
short period from 2006 to 2009, a rapid increase in the
level of soil sealing of more than 0.5 % in almost half of
the 576 analysed cities has been observed. For 17 cities
in southern Europe, an extremely significant increase in
soil sealing of more than 2 % has been observed, while
only one city, Helsinki, showed a considerable decrease
(– 1.4 %) in soil sealing (EEA, 2015).
River and coastal floods are natural phenomena, but
a changing climate and sprawling cities are likely to
increase the flood risk in Europe. Most cities in Europe
were built close to rivers or the coast owing to the good
transport connections. Map 6.9 shows the proportion
of urban area that will potentially be flooded in a 100-
year river flood event in the late 21st century (2071–
2100) (Rojas et al., 2012, 2013; EEA, 2015; EEA et al.,
2015). Most of the cities for which a high percentage of
their areas are at risk of river floods are found along
the Danube, Rhine, Rhône, Vltava-Elbe, Po and Vistula
rivers. The risk from river floods decreases for cities
in north‐eastern Europe and decreases partially in
the Iberian Peninsula (see Map 6.9). The cities at the
highest risk of coastal floods in the late 21st century,
driven by a combination of sea level rise and storm
surges, are along the North Sea coast in Belgium,
the Netherlands and Germany, as well as along the
Mediterranean coast of northern Italy. However,
the simulations underlying these projections do not
consider any flood protection in the form of dykes and
dams (EEA, 2015).
Map 6.9 Urban area potentially affected by river flooding, 2071–2100
-30°
-20°
-10°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
Urban area potentially
affected by river flooding,
2071–2100
Percentage
No flood risk
0.01–5
60°
5–10
10–15
15–30
> 30
No data
Outside coverage
50°
50°
40°
40°
0 500 1 000 1 500 km
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
Note:
The overall urban area is calculated as the Urban Morphological Zone based on Urban Atlas land-use data inside the city delineation
of Eurostat's Urban Audit database (EEA, 2015). The interactive version of this map, including additional layers, detailed technical
information and further thematic maps, can be found in the EEA map book on urban vulnerability ( 129 ).
Source: Rojas et al., 2012, 2013; EEA, 2015; EEA et al., 2015.
( 129 ) http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/tools/urban-adaptation/introduction.
308 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report