Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on environmental systems
The bottom panels of Map 4.12 show the combined
impact of climate change and changes in water
consumption (based on the 'Economy First' water
use scenario) on the same drought indices. In most
regions, projected increases in water consumption
further aggravate river flow droughts (Forzieri
et al., 2014, 2016). Water use and abstraction will
exacerbate minimum low-flows in many parts of
the Mediterranean region, leading to increased
probabilities of water deficits when maximum water
demand overlaps with minimum or low availability
(EEA, 2012c).
Map 4.12
Projected change in 20-year return level minimum flow and deficit volumes due to climate
change and changes in water use
-30° -20° -10° 0°
Minimum discharge
(climate change only)
10°
20°
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
-30° -20° -10° 0°
Deficit volume
(climate change only)
10°
20°
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
60°
60°
50°
50°
50°
50°
40°
40°
40°
40°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20°
Minimum discharge
(climate change and water use)
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20°
Deficit volume
(climate change and water use)
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
60°
60°
50°
50°
50°
50°
40°
40°
40°
40°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
Projected change in 20-year return level minimum flow and deficit volumes due to climate change and changes in water use
deficits 80 60 40 20 10 5 – 5 – 10 – 20 – 40 – 60 – 80
qmin
– 80 – 60 – 40 – 20 – 10 – 5 5 10 20 40 60 80
%
Outside coverage
0 500 1 000 1 500 km
Note: This map shows the differences between the end of the 21st century (2071–2100; SRES A1B scenario) and the control period (1961–1990)
for minimum flow (left) and deficit volume (right) for climate change only (top) and a combination of climate change and water use
(bottom).
Source: Adapted from Forzieri et al., 2014.
148 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report