Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
of climatic changes (see Section 5.6). These conclusions
are largely consistent with those provided by the
research project MOWE-IT (Temme et al., 2014).
A number of European airports have conducted
site‐specific vulnerability assessments. For example,
London Heathrow Airport conducted a risk assessment
in 2011 (HAL, 2011). The review identified a small
number of climate risks, related primarily to the need to
continue to upgrade the airport's surface water capacity
and flood mitigation, as well as reviewing and upgrading
the building performance standards. The assessment
for Copenhagen Airport found that flooding due to an
increase in extreme precipitation patterns would be the
most significant threat. Rising sea level was not seen as
an important issue for the foreseeable future, despite
the coastal location of the airport (Klimatilspassning,
2014). The French airport administration conducted a
pilot vulnerability study for Nice Côte d'Azur Airport
(DGAC/STAC, 2013), identifying the need for increased
protection from storm surges and sea level rise in
the future. Some climate risks, such as inundation of
ground transport links or loss of utility supply, may
not be directly under the control of the organisation
(e.g. airports).
A brief overview of climate change risks and adaptation
activities at European airports is available in the first
European Aviation Environmental Report (EASA et al.,
2016, Chapter 7).
5.5.6 Water-borne transport
The ECCONET project assessed the impact of climate
change on inland waterway transport as well as
possible adaptation measures. The project uses the
Rhine‐Main‐Danube corridor as a case study, with
special emphasis on low water situations. Results based
on projections from different climate models show no
significant effects on low flow conditions for the Rhine
and the Rhine–Main–Danube canal until 2050. The upper
Danube would experience a moderate increase in low
flow conditions. The trend towards drier summers and
wetter winters will gain in importance towards the end
of the 21st century. Disposition for ice formation on both
the Rhine and the Danube will most likely decrease over
the whole 21st century (Nilson et al., 2012).
Simulations with the NODUS transport model suggest
that projected climate change until 2050 is unlikely to
have a sufficient impact on the hydrology of the Rhine
to induce a significant shift in modal shares. The study
estimates that a 'dry' year leads to approximately a
6–7 % increase in total transport cost compared with a
'wet' year, but these variations are already present under
the current climate conditions and will not be influenced
heavily by climate change until the 2050s (Bruinsma
et al., 2012; Beuthe et al., 2014). Low water levels could
also trigger further effects due to interruptions of the
coal supply to power stations (Rothstein and Halbig,
2010).
The results from other research projects are consistent
with the findings of ECCONET. The German research
programme KLIWAS ( 111 ) did not identify distinctive
challenges or restrictions for shipping in inland
waterways or in shipping and waterway infrastructure
in coastal areas (Moser et al., 2012). The MOWE-IT
project concluded that inland waterway transport is
expected to remain a reliable and cost-effective mode
of transport (Siedl and Schweighofer, 2014).
Water-borne transport is particularly sensitive to
river droughts and changes in the ice cover of oceans
and inland waters. In the Arctic, the decline in sea ice
could open up new transport lanes (see Section 3.3.2).
However, the benefits to the regional and global
economy would be modest at best: the trade potential
of Arctic transport between Europe and Asia would
remain rather limited in 2050, at values between
1 to 2.5 million twenty-foot equivalent containers or
around 300–900 transits per year. While this represents
a small improvement for the global transport of
containerised goods, it does not justify any delay in the
environmental actions necessary to protect the Arctic's
fragile environment (EC, 2012; Perrels et al., 2015).
The seaport community has also been interested
in gaining a better understanding of the potential
impacts of climate change. Changes in sea level
and storm intensity, combined with changes in ice
conditions in polar regions, will require responses
related to maritime navigation infrastructure
and operations (PIANC, 2008). However, this
understanding has not resulted in widespread
vulnerability studies. A global survey conducted
in 2009 among port authorities around the world
showed that sea level rise was the key concern for
most of them, and that the majority (63 %) of the
respondents were discussing climate change-related
issues internally, although mainly at an informal level
and infrequently (Becker et al., 2011).
There is scarce evidence of vulnerability assessments
conducted by seaport authorities thus far. One
recent example is the vulnerability study for the
port of Rotterdam, as a part of the vulnerability
( 111 ) Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Wasserstraßen und Schifffahrt — Entwicklung von Anpassungsoptionen (http://www.kliwas.de).
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