Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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References Pons, M., López-Moreno, J. I., Rosas-Casals, M. and Jover, È., 2015, 'The vulnerability of Pyrenean ski resorts to climate-induced changes in the snowpack', Climatic Change 131(4), 591–605 (doi: 10.1007/s10584- 015-1400-8). Rixen, C., Teich, M., Lardelli, C., Gallati, D., Pohl, M., Pütz, M. and Bebi, P., 2011, 'Winter tourism and climate change in the Alps: An assessment of resource consumption, snow reliability, and future snowmaking potential', Mountain Research and Development 31(3), 229–236 (doi: 10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-10-00112.1). Rosselló, J. and Santana-Gallego, M., 2014, 'Recent trends in international tourist climate preferences: A revised picture for climatic change scenarios', Climatic Change 124(1–2), 119–132 (doi: 10.1007/ s10584-014-1086-3). Rosselló-Nadal, J., 2014, 'How to evaluate the effects of climate change on tourism', Tourism Management 42, 334–340 (doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2013.11.006). Steger, C., Kotlarski, S., Jonas, T. and Schär, C., 2013, 'Alpine snow cover in a changing climate: A regional climate model perspective', Climate Dynamics 41(3–4), 735–754 (doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1545-3). Steiger, R., 2011, 'The impact of snow scarcity on ski tourism: An analysis of the record warm season 2006/2007 in Tyrol (Austria)', Tourism Review 66(3), 4–13 (doi: 10.1108/16605371111175285). Steiger, R., 2012, 'Scenarios for skiing tourism in Austria: Integrating demographics with an analysis of climate change', Journal of Sustainable Tourism 20(6), 867–882 (doi: 10.1080/09669582.2012.680464). Steiger, R. and Stötter, J., 2013, 'Climate change impact assessment of ski tourism in Tyrol', Tourism Geographies 15(4), 577–600 (doi: 10.1080/14616688.2012.762539). Tervo-Kankare, K., Hall, C. M. and Saarinen, J., 2013, 'Christmas tourists' perceptions to climate change in Rovaniemi, Finland', Tourism Geographies 15(2), 292–317 (doi: 10.1080/14616688.2012.726265). ToPDAd, 2015, How will climate change affect tourism flows in Europe? Adaptation options for beach and ski tourists assessed by ToPDAd models, ToPDAd Policy Brief. Chapter 6: Multi-sectoral vulnerability and risks Section 6.1: Socio-economic scenarios for Europe Acosta, L., Klein, R. J. T., Reidsma, P., Metzger, M. J., Rounsevell, M. D. A., Leemans, R. and Schröter, D., 2013, 'A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe', Global Environmental Change 23(5), 1 211–1 224 (doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.03.008). Audsley, E., Trnka, M., Sabaté, S., Maspons, J., Sanchez, A., Sandars, D., Balek, J. and Pearn, K., 2014, 'Interactively modelling land profitability to estimate European agricultural and forest land use under future scenarios of climate, socio-economics and adaptation', Climatic Change 128(3–4), 215–227 (doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1164-6). Cuaresma, J. C., 2015, 'Income projections for climate change research: A framework based on human capital dynamics', Global Environmental Change (doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.012). Dellink, R., Chateau, J., Lanzi, E. and Magné, B., 2015, 'Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways', Global Environmental Change (doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004). Dunford, R., Harrison, P. A., Jäger, J., Rounsevell, M. D. A. and Tinch, R., 2015, 'Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using indicators of impacts and coping capacity', Climatic Change 128(3–4), 339–354 (doi: 10.1007/s10584-014- 1162-8). EC, 2014a, 'CAP context indicators' (http://ec.europa. eu/agriculture/cap-indicators/context/index_en.htm) accessed 10 February 2016. EC, 2014b, The 2015 ageing report: Underlying assumptions and projection methodologies, European Economy No 8/2014, European Commission, Brussels. EEA, 2012, Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012, EEA Report No 12/2012, European Environment Agency. EEA, 2015, The European environment — state and outlook 2015: Assessment of global megatrends, European Environment Agency. ESPON Climate, 2011, Climate change and territorial effects on regions and local economies, Scientific Report, Institute of Spatial Planning (IRPUD), TU Dortmund University, Dortmund. 404 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
References Eurostat, 2013, 'Europop2013' (http://ec.europa.eu/ eurostat/web/population-demography-migrationprojections/population-projections-data) accessed 17 September 2015. IPCC, 2014, Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Part B: Regional aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge; New York. Jiang, L. and O'Neill, B. C., 2015, 'Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways', Global Environmental Change (doi: 10.1016/j. gloenvcha.2015.03.008). Kok, K., Bärlund, I., Flörke, M., Holman, I., Gramberger, M., Sendzimir, J., Stuch, B. and Zellmer, K., 2015, 'European participatory scenario development: Strengthening the link between stories and models', Climatic Change 128(3–4), 187–200 (doi: 10.1007/ s10584-014-1143-y). Kok, K., Christensen, J. H., Madsen, M. S., Pedde, S., Gramberger, M. and Carter, T. R., 2015, Evaluation of existing climate and socio-economic scenarios including a detailed description of the final selection, EU FP7 IMPRESSIONS project, Deliverable 2.1, University of Oxford, Wageningen University. Kok, K., Pedde, S., Jaeger, J. and Harrison, P. A., 2015, European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Report of the FP7 project IMPRESSIONS, University of Oxford, Oxford. Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Ebi, K. L., Kram, T., Riahi, K., Winkler, H. and Vuuren, D. P. van, 2014, 'A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared climate policy assumptions', Climatic Change 122(3), 401–414 (doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0971-5). Leimbach, M., Kriegler, E., Roming, N. and Schwanitz, J., 2015, 'Future growth patterns of world regions — A GDP scenario approach', Global Environmental Change (doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.005). O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., Levy, M. and Solecki, W., 2015, 'The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century', Global Environmental Change (doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004). O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T. R., Mathur, R. and Vuuren, D. P. van, 2014, 'A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways', Climatic Change 122(3), 387–400 (doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2). Samir, K. C. and Lutz, W., 2015, 'The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100', Global Environmental Change (doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004). Tinch, R., Jäger, J., Omann, I., Harrison, P. A., Wesely, J. and Dunford, R., 2015, 'Applying a capitals framework to measuring coping and adaptive capacity in integrated assessment models', Climatic Change 128(3–4), 323–337 (doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1299-5). UNDESA, 2015, World Population Prospects, the 2015 revision — Key findings and advance tables, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York, NY. van Vuuren, D. P. and Carter, T. R., 2014, 'Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: Reconciling the new with the old', Climatic Change 122(3), 415–429 (doi: 10.1007/s10584- 013-0974-2). van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., O'Neill, B. C., Ebi, K. L., Riahi, K., Carter, T. R., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Mathur, R. and Winkler, H., 2014, 'A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture', Climatic Change 122(3), 373–386 (doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1). Wimmer, F., Audsley, E., Malsy, M., Savin, C., Dunford, R., Harrison, P. A., Schaldach, R. and Flörke, M., 2014, 'Modelling the effects of cross-sectoral water allocation schemes in Europe', Climatic Change 128(3– 4), 229–244 (doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1161-9). Section 6.2: Multi-sectoral impacts and vulnerabilities across Europe Adelphi, PRC and EURAC, 2015, Vulnerabilität Deutschlands gegenüber dem Klimawandel, Climate Change 24/2015, Umweltbundesamt, Dessau-Roβlau. BASE project, 2016, Process tool for testing and evaluating future plans for adaptation – using storylines and pathways for adaptation to CC across Europe, Deliverable 6.4. Dunford, R., Harrison, P. A., Jäger, J., Rounsevell, M. D. A. and Tinch, R., 2015, 'Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report 405
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EEA Report No 1/2017 Climate change
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Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © J
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Contents 3 Changes in the climate s
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Contents 6 Multi-sectoral vulnerabi
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements R
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Acknowledgements Chapter 6: Multi-s
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Executive summary Executive summary
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Executive summary ES.1 Introduction
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Executive summary EU climate policy
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Executive summary dispersal of inva
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Executive summary Human health The
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Executive summary Table ES.1 Key ob
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Executive summary For 34 out of the
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Executive summary precipitation, th
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Executive summary as a result of cl
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Executive summary thereby deliverin
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Introduction 1.1.2 Content and data
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Introduction 1.1.3 Changes compared
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Introduction Table 1.4 Overview of
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Introduction collaboration between
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Introduction The primary characteri
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Introduction Table 1.7 Data coverag
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Introduction 1.3 Uncertainty in obs
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Introduction • attribution of an
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Introduction Article 4.4 of the UNF
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Policy context 2 Policy context 2.1
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Policy context In addition, the 203
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Policy context EU Adaptation Strate
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Policy context Map 2.1 Overview of
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Policy context Baltic Marine Enviro
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Policy context includes recommendat
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Changes in the climate system Figur
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Changes in the climate system asses
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Changes in the climate system Box 3
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Changes in the climate system incre
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Changes in the climate system in Eu
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Changes in the climate system Proje
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Changes in the climate system Map 3
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Changes in the climate system 3.2.4
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Changes in the climate system Map 3
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Changes in the climate system 1871-
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Changes in the climate system 3.3 C
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Changes in the climate system the i
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Changes in the climate system Proje
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Climate change impacts on environme
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Climate change impacts on society 5
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Climate change impacts on society F
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Climate change impacts on society H
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Climate change impacts on society M
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Climate change impacts on society p
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Climate change impacts on society b
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Climate change impacts on society p
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Multi-sectoral vulnerability and ri
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Strengthening the knowledge base 7
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Strengthening the knowledge base
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8 Abbrev
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8.2 Acro
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References References Executive sum
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References EEA, 2004, Impacts of Eu
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References Adaptation to Climate Ch
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References EEA, 2015a, National mon
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References high-resolution climate
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References Fischer, E. M., Sedláč
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References Geophysical Research Let
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References Barletta, V. R., Sørens
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References Discussions 15(14), 20 0
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References Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T
Page 356 and 357: References L. R., Delgado Granados,
Page 358 and 359: References Chust, G., Allen, J. I.,
Page 360 and 361: References antropogent karbon i de
Page 362 and 363: References face of climate change',
Page 364 and 365: References Gerritsen, H., 2005, 'Wh
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Page 368 and 369: References EEA, 2012b, Towards effi
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Page 372 and 373: References Arneth, A., Harrison, S.
Page 374 and 375: References northern margin of its d
Page 376 and 377: References Hegland, S. J., Nielsen,
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Page 404 and 405: References Nemry, F. and Demirel, H
Page 408 and 409: References indicators of impacts an
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Page 412 and 413: References Global Environmental Cha
Page 414 and 415: References Chierici, M. and Fransso
Page 416 and 417: References the Pyrenees from a set
Page 418 and 419: References change on olive crop eva
Page 420 and 421: References Steeneveld, G. J., Koopm
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