Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
5.2.2 Extreme weather events and health
Relevance
Extreme climate and weather events, such as
heat waves (see Section 3.2.3), wind storms (see
Section 3.2.6), hail (see Section 3.2.7), river floods
(see Section 4.3.3), droughts (see Section 4.3.4),
storm surges (see Section 4.2.2) and forest fires (see
Section 4.4.6), have adverse social and health effects
in Europe and in the Arctic, as well as significant
impacts in multiple economic sectors (Kirch et al.,
2005; Confalonieri et al., 2007; EEA, 2011a; IPCC, 2012,
2014b). However, human vulnerability to extreme
weather events is determined by a complex set of
factors.
Evidence suggests that, globally, climate change
has led to changes in climate extremes, including
heat waves, record high temperatures and, in many
regions, heavy precipitation in the past half century
(IPCC, 2013). If vulnerable populations are exposed
to such climate extremes, or a series thereof, this can
lead to substantial health impacts (IPCC, 2012). There
are regional differences in the observed changes; for
example, while there is high confidence in the fact that
heat waves have become more severe in southern
Europe and the Mediterranean, there is less confidence
in the significance of the observed trend in central and
northern Europe.
Past trends
According to the EM‐DAT international disaster
database ( 90 ) (see Section 5.1), heat waves were
the deadliest extreme weather event in the period
1991–2015 in Europe, particularly in southern and
western Europe. Cold events and storms were the
deadliest weather extremes in eastern Europe. Floods
and wet mass movements, including landslides, were
linked to the highest death rates in southern and
eastern Europe, wildfires were linked to the highest
death rates in southern Europe and the deadliest
storms were reported in northern and western
Europe (Table 5.2). However, the comparability of
the data over time is very limited (see 'Data needs
and uncertainty' in Section 5.2.1). Furthermore, the
interpretation of the time series can be dominated by
a single extreme event, such as the 2003 summer heat
wave (June–September 2003), with over 70 000 excess
deaths in southern and western Europe. In addition,
in the case of flood‐related fatalities, where the
total number of fatalities is much lower, the overall
number of deaths depends strongly on single events.
Extreme events threaten human health, but may
also be considered an argument for a transition
to more sustainable and healthy societies with
'climate‐resilient' health systems.
The damages from extreme climate events have
increased in Europe since 1991 (see Section 5.1.2).
Table 5.2
Number of people killed per million due to extreme weather events, by European sub‐regions
for the period 1991–2015
Flood and Cold event Heat wave Storm Wildfire
wet mass
movement ( a )
Eastern Europe 8.57 28.27 11.39 1.73 0.54
Northern Europe 0.99 1.67 11.17 2.48 0.01
Southern Europe 6.75 0.92 177.98 1.19 0.97
Western Europe 2.09 0.89 191.58 2.79 0.04
Total 4.64 5.31 128.98 1.99 0.46
Note:
( a ) Includes landslides.
The rate given in each cell is the cumulative numbers of deaths per 1 000 000 people over the whole time period (1991–2015). The country
groupings, as reported to EM‐DAT/CRED, are as follows: eastern Europe is Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and
Slovakia; northern Europe is Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom; southern
Europe, including western Asia, is Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia,
Montenegro, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain and Turkey; and western Europe is Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the
Netherlands and Switzerland. Population rates calculated using population data from 2013.
Source: EM‐DAT ( 91 ), Eurostat ( 92 ) and WHO ( 93 ).
( 90 ) http://www.emdat.be.
( 91 ) http://www.emdat.be/database.
( 92 ) http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography-migration-projections/population-data.
( 93 ) http://www.euro.who.int/en/data-and-evidence.
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