Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Introduction
The primary characteristics of the five SSPs are as
follows (see also Figure 1.2 and Table 1.6):
• SSP1, 'Sustainability — Taking the Green Road', is
characterised by low population growth associated
with educational and health improvements,
reductions in global inequality, increasingly
effective international cooperation, and increasing
environmental awareness that leads to improved
resource efficiency, a boost in green technologies
and low energy demand.
• SSP2, 'Middle of the Road', assumes a development
path in which social, economic and technological
trends do not significantly differ from historical
patterns. This might lead to moderate population
growth, slow progress towards achieving
sustainability goals and the persistence of fossil
fuel dependency, as well as income inequalities.
• SSP3, 'Regional Rivalry — A Rocky Road', assumes
increased nationalism, regional conflict, weak
international cooperation and more authoritarian
forms of government in parts of the world.
This would imply strong population growth
in developing countries and low economic
development with islands of moderate growth, but
also widespread poverty, limited environmental
concerns, and growing resource intensity and fossil
fuel use.
• SSP4, 'Inequality — A Road Divided', is
characterised by highly unequal development
across world regions and countries with
an increasing gap between industrialised,
wealthy regions with high education levels,
high technological development and moderate
economic growth, and regions characterised by low
levels of education, low economic development,
weak institutions and increasing social unrest.
• SSP5, 'Fossil-fuelled Development — Taking the
Highway', is characterised by rapid economic,
technological and social development that is driven
by increasingly integrated global markets, and
based on the strong exploitation of fossil fuels and
resource-intensive lifestyles. Global population
growth peaks and declines in the 21st century.
Table 1.6
Summary of assumptions of SSPs for selected variables
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
Main objective Global
Not defined National security Security Economic growth
sustainability
Population growth Relatively low Medium High/low (*) Relatively
Relatively low
high/low (*)
Urbanisation High Medium Low High/medium (*) High
Education level High Medium Low Low/medium (*) High
Equity High Medium Low Medium High
Economic growth High/medium (*) Medium, uneven Slow Low/medium (*) High
International
cooperation
Effective Relatively weak Weak, uneven Effective (for small
elite only)
Institutions Effective (all levels) Uneven, modest
effectiveness
Technological
development
Weak (global),
strong (national)
Effective (for small
elite only)
Rapid Medium, uneven Slow Rapid (high-tech
sectors only)
Carbon intensity Low Medium High (regions with
large domestic
resources
Environment
Improving
conditions
Continued
degradation
Serious
degradation
Low/medium (*)
Degrading/
highly managed (*)
SRES B1 (A1T) B2 (A2) A2 A1FI
Effective (but no
environmental
focus)
Effective (focus
competitiveness)
Rapid
High
Highly engineered
Note:
(*) The information to the left of the slash refers to high-fertility countries (i.e. mostly developing countries) and the information to the
right of the slash refers to rich Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (KC and Lutz, 2015).
The bottom row with information on 'matching' SRES scenarios is only indicative, and some 'matches' are closer than others.
Source: Adapted from van Vuuren and Carter, 2014; O'Neill et al., 2015.
40 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report