Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
5.4.3 Energy demand
The literature on the effects of climate change on
energy demand and production is not very extensive,
particularly for sectors other than residential and
for fuels other than electricity. However, key impacts
across Europe can be identified. While most studies
have a specific sectoral or regional focus and
look at either the demand or the supply side, the
ClimateCost and PESETA II projects attempt to provide
comprehensive assessments for the entire European
energy system, considering the impacts on demand
and supply jointly. Both studies rely on the same
energy model, Prospective Outlook on Long-term
Energy Systems (POLES) (Mima and Criqui, 2015). The
main results from POLES regarding energy demand
are summarised in Section 5.4.2 under 'Projections',
and in the final two rows of Table 5.5.
The main focus of most studies on energy demand
is on electricity, and in particular on residential
electricity use. Approximately one-third of Europe's
domestic space heating requirement is provided
by electricity, but with substantial variation across
countries (Mideksa and Kallbekken, 2010). Cooling
is almost exclusively provided by electricity.
Therefore, changes in heating demand, and even
more so in cooling demand, will directly influence
electricity demand. It is worth noting that an
increased electricity demand peak in the summer
would coincide with increased difficulty in obtaining
sufficient cooling water for thermal power generation
during very hot conditions (Förster and Lilliestam,
2009).
Table 5.5 summarises the studies that have looked
at projected trends for different European countries.
The heterogeneity in results is generally the result of
the selection of different climate change scenarios,
the different time span considered and whether or
not economic and societal change is considered in
addition to climate change.
Table 5.5
Overview of studies on climate change impacts on future energy demand
Study Region Date of
projection
Pilli-Sihvola et al.,
2010
Mirasgedis et al.,
2007
Eskeland and
Mideksa, 2010
Finland, France,
Germany, the
Netherlands and
Spain
2015–2050 Electricity (total
across sectors)
Greece 2070–2100 Electricity (total
across sectors)
Europe 2100 Residential electricity
consumption
Mima et al., 2012 Europe 2010–2100 Heating demand (oil,
gas, biomass and
electricity); cooling
demand (electricity);
residential and
tertiary sector
Which demand? Change in demand Peak demand
Decreases in northern
countries, increase in
Spain; overall neutral
+ 2 % to + 4 %, Spain
(projected summer
electricity demand in
2050 compared with
2007)
+ 3 % to + 6 % + 13 %, June
Small, but disguises
large regional
variations (from –
21 % in Lithuania
to + 19 % in Turkey
in 2100, compared
with the 1995–2005
average)
+ 12 % by 2050,
rising to + 24 % by
2100 (EU-28, Croatia
not included), as a
result of electricity
for cooling demand
above future baseline
(A1B scenario),
reduced to + 8 %
across period for E1
mitigation scenario
+ 19 %, Turkey
(compared with the
1995–2005 average)
Strong regional
variations, with larger
increases in cooling
demand in southern
Europe and heating
demand in west
Europe (neither of
which is quantified as
a percentage in the
study)
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