Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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Climate change impacts on society 5.3.3 Agrophenology Key messages • The flowering of several perennial and annual crops has advanced by about two days per decade during the last 50 years. • Changes in crop phenology are affecting crop production and the relative performance of different crop species and varieties. The shortening of the grain-filling phase of cereals and oilseed crops can be particularly detrimental to yield. • Shortening of the growth phases of many crops is expected to continue, but this may be altered by selecting other crop cultivars and changing planting dates, which in some cases can lead to longer growth periods. Relevance Changes in crop phenology provide important evidence of responses to recent regional climate change (Menzel et al., 2003). Although phenological changes are often influenced by management practices, in particular the sowing date and choice of cultivar, recent warming in Europe has clearly caused the advancement of a significant part of the agricultural calendar. Specific stages of growth (e.g. flowering, grain filling) are particularly sensitive to weather conditions are critical to the final yield. The timing of the crop cycle (agrophenology) determines the productive success of the crop. In general, a longer crop cycle is strongly correlated with higher yields, as a longer cycle permits better use of the available thermal energy, solar radiation and water resources. Past trends Changes in the phenological phases of several perennial crops in Europe, such as advances in the start of the growing season of fruit trees (2.3 days/decade), cherry tree blossom (2.0 days/decade) and apple tree blossom (2.2 days/decade), in line with increases of up to 1.4 °C in mean annual air temperature, were observed in Germany during 1961–2000 (Chmielewski et al., 2004). Sowing or planting dates of several agricultural crops have advanced; for example, for oats in Germany (1959–2009), sowing has advanced by 0.2 days/decade, flowering by 1.9 days/decade, maturity by 3.3 days/decade and harvest by 2.1 days/decade (Siebert and Ewert, 2012). This indicates that factors other than temperature may be affecting sowing and harvesting dates, e.g. soil workability and grain moisture for harvesting. An analysis of the modelled flowering date for winter wheat in Europe between 1985 and 2014 shows a general and clear increasing trend, which is most pronounced in north-western Europe (Map 5.11). In large parts of Europe, the modelled flowering date has advanced by two to four days/decade. This modelled advance in flowering date probably exceeds what is observed in reality, as a longer growth duration will alter plants' responses to day length and farmers' choices of cultivars, reducing the overall response. Projections With the projected warming of the climate in Europe, further reductions in the number of days required for flowering and to reach maturity in cereals may be expected throughout Europe (Olesen et al., 2012). Since many plants (including cereals) in Europe require long days to flower, the effect of warming on the date of flowering is smaller than would otherwise be expected. The flowering date for winter wheat was projected to show the greatest advance in western parts of Europe, with an advance of up to two weeks by 2050. The projected advance in the date of reaching maturity is greater than the advance in flowering date, leading to a shortening of the grain-filling period, which will negatively affect yields. One of the main adaptation options to cope with the shortening of crop growth phases is choosing crop cultivars that have higher thermal requirements, as this will reduce the negative yield effects of a shorter growth duration. In practice, this needs to be balanced against the need to avoid periods of high temperature stresses and drought. Breeding for crop cultivars with optimal timing of crop phenological phases is therefore a critical adaptation option (Semenov et al., 2014). 230 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
Climate change impacts on society Map 5.11 Trend in flowering date for winter wheat, 1985–2014 -30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70° Trend in flowering date for winter wheat, 1985–2014 Days/year < – 0.4 – 0.4 to – 0.3 60° – 0.3 to – 0.2 – 0.2 to – 0.1 – 0.1 to 0.1 50° No winter wheat simulated Outside coverage 50° 40° 40° 0 500 1000 1500 km 0° 10° © European 20° Union 2016, source: 30° Joint Research Centre 40° Source: MARS/STAT database. Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report 231
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EEA Report No 1/2017 Climate change
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Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © J
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Contents 3 Changes in the climate s
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Contents 6 Multi-sectoral vulnerabi
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements R
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Acknowledgements Chapter 6: Multi-s
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Executive summary Executive summary
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Executive summary ES.1 Introduction
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Executive summary EU climate policy
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Executive summary dispersal of inva
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Executive summary Human health The
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Executive summary Table ES.1 Key ob
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Executive summary For 34 out of the
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Executive summary precipitation, th
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Executive summary as a result of cl
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Executive summary thereby deliverin
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Introduction 1.1.2 Content and data
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Introduction 1.1.3 Changes compared
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Introduction Table 1.4 Overview of
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Introduction collaboration between
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Introduction The primary characteri
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Introduction Table 1.7 Data coverag
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Introduction 1.3 Uncertainty in obs
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Introduction • attribution of an
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Introduction Article 4.4 of the UNF
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Policy context 2 Policy context 2.1
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Policy context In addition, the 203
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Policy context EU Adaptation Strate
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Policy context Map 2.1 Overview of
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Policy context Baltic Marine Enviro
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Policy context includes recommendat
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Changes in the climate system Figur
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Changes in the climate system asses
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Changes in the climate system Box 3
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Changes in the climate system incre
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Changes in the climate system in Eu
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Changes in the climate system Box 3
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Changes in the climate system Proje
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Changes in the climate system Map 3
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Changes in the climate system 3.2.4
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Changes in the climate system Map 3
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Changes in the climate system 1871-
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Changes in the climate system 3.3 C
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8 Abbrev
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8.2 Acro
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References References Executive sum
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References EEA, 2004, Impacts of Eu
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References Adaptation to Climate Ch
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References EEA, 2015a, National mon
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References high-resolution climate
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References Fischer, E. M., Sedláč
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References Geophysical Research Let
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References Barletta, V. R., Sørens
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References Discussions 15(14), 20 0
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References Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T
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References L. R., Delgado Granados,
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References Chust, G., Allen, J. I.,
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References antropogent karbon i de
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References face of climate change',
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References Gerritsen, H., 2005, 'Wh
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References Andersen, K. K. and Chri
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References EEA, 2012b, Towards effi
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References Naturwissenschaften Schw
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References Arneth, A., Harrison, S.
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References northern margin of its d
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References Hegland, S. J., Nielsen,
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References weather', Agricultural a
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References 'The new assessment of s
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References Schweiger, O., Settele,
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References 'Warming experiments und
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References Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A
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References Burkart, K., Canário, P
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References Gertler, M., Durr, M., R
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References the environmental condit
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References Semenza, J. C., Sudre, B
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References Brisson, N., Gate, P., G
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References Lesk, C., Rowhani, P. an
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References Vitali, A., Segnalini, M
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References Rübbelke, D. and Vögel
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References indicators of impacts an
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References Roudier, P., Andersson,
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References Global Environmental Cha
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References Chierici, M. and Fransso
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References the Pyrenees from a set
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References change on olive crop eva
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References Steeneveld, G. J., Koopm
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European Environment Agency Climate
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