Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on environmental systems
Figure 4.16 Species-specific trends of spring leaf unfolding during the two periods 1982–1999 and 2000–2011
Days per year
0.5 1982–1999
0
– 0.5
– 1.0
56
105
105
105
110
108
109
110
112
105
111
118 115
116 125
128
83
0.5
0
– 0.5
– 1.0
57
Prunus amygdalis
86
Sambucus nigra
Prunus spinosa
101 104
Prunus avium
Note: This figure shows species-specific trends of spring leaf unfolding (in days per year) during the two periods 1982–1999 and 2000–2011.
The numbers above or below the column are the average dates (calendar day) of species-specific phenological events for the study
period.
Source: Adapted from Fu et al., 2014.
105
Syringa vulgaris
106
Aesculus hippocastanum
106
Alnus glutnosa
106
Betula pendula
2000–2011
107
Sorbus aucuparia
Corylus avellana
109 110
Prunus domestica
113
Pyrus communis
114
Fagus sylvatica
117
Tilia cordata
119
Acer pseudoplatanus
119
Quercus robur
123
Fraxinus excelsior
133
Rubinia pseudoacacla
failed crops and wildfires. The shorter, milder winters
that follow might fail to kill dormant insects, increasing
the risk of large, damaging infestations in subsequent
seasons. For climate change factors other than
temperature, the phenology of emissions of volatile
compounds from flowers' seems affected not only
by warming or drought but also by the phenological
changes in the presence of pollinators. Nevertheless,
experimental evidence suggests that phenological
effects on pollinator–plant synchrony may be of limited
importance (Willmer, 2012; Peñuelas et al., 2013).
Projections
Phenology is primarily seen as an indicator to observe
the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and
their constituent species. However, an extrapolation
of the observed relationship between temperature
and phenological events into the future can provide an
initial estimate of future changes in phenology. Plants
and animal species unable to adjust their phenological
behaviour will be negatively affected, particularly in
highly seasonal habitats (Both et al., 2010). Obviously,
there are limits to possible changes in phenology,
beyond which ecosystems have to adapt by changes in
species composition. For six dominant European tree
species, flushing is expected to advance in the next
decades, but this trend substantially differed between
species (from 0 to 2.4 days per decade) (Vitasse et al.,
2011). Interestingly, the projected advancement is
quite similar to the recently observed rates and does
not increase, as could have been expected from
increasingly rising temperatures. This might indicate
some physiological limitations in temporal adaptation
to climate change. Leaf senescence of two deciduous
species, which is more difficult to predict, is expected to
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